English football league predictions

 

Click here for the latest predictions.

The English_football_league is a tiered system of leagues each of which operates a double all-play-all every football season (August-May). Fans, punters and bookies all have an interest in predicting how the final table may end up. You could possibly add mathematicians to that list, since there is some scope to make a statistical model of how teams behave and simulate the rest of the season based on this model.

This model uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo together with a Poisson model of goal-scoring and a prior distribution from the previous season to predict future matches. The rest of the season is ‘rolled out’ many thousands of times, and the proportion of times a team gets promoted/relegated/in-the-playoffs/… is displayed in the tables linked to here.

The software is freely available.

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