Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 9 May 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.10    99.84     3.06   101.45     3.53    56.88   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.62    19.79    -5.11    80.20     3.52    54.09     0.00    98.76    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.45    66.95    15.08    68.35     4.01    34.41     0.00     1.18    77.95    93.14    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.11    39.12    -3.66    63.08     3.85    16.18     0.00     0.05    12.14    52.96    90.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.83    31.04     0.66    61.29     3.88    19.98     0.00     0.00     7.65    35.20    83.66     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.11    65.74     7.43    56.38     4.03     8.54     0.00     0.00     0.51     5.17    34.33     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.62    84.59     9.76    55.17     4.19     3.00     0.00     0.00     0.60     3.67    23.24     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.61    13.22    -7.96    56.86     4.06    12.31     0.00     0.00     0.90     7.26    42.49     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.11    25.68    -5.89    54.84     4.14     5.43     0.00     0.00     0.28     2.48    21.84     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.57    77.29     3.82    49.34     3.71    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.11     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.42    62.95    -1.03    48.87     3.75    -9.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.25     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.61    47.45    -4.36    49.25     3.92    -9.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.54     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.62    64.67    -5.10    45.13     3.70   -19.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.03R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.06    66.46    -1.19    43.71     3.83   -21.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.47R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.66    37.08     4.77    37.73     3.64   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.97R    1.66  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.22    20.67    -2.72    38.61     3.93   -16.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.66R    2.01  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.51    27.69    -3.16    36.87     3.74   -21.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.99R    4.04  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.60    27.47    -3.51    35.92     3.66   -24.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.13R    5.15  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.50    42.96     0.61    33.96     3.93   -30.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.07R   16.66  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.08    29.59    -1.52    29.50     3.62   -34.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.63R   70.45  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.87    80.47     7.96    86.87     3.97    31.27    51.26    93.90   100.00    95.73P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.54    64.69     3.12    86.28     4.00    33.13    46.70    91.67   100.00    94.51P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.33    71.23     2.21    77.01     4.03    14.98     1.24     7.61    95.16    30.12P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -5.02    29.28     9.51    75.76     4.01    36.15     0.71     5.66    93.19    37.70P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.20    75.06     5.24    73.42     4.04    11.59     0.09     1.07    78.72    16.85P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.98    62.80     1.57    68.77     4.06     5.60     0.00     0.04    35.46     6.88P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.05    67.00    -2.13    67.49     4.06    -1.74     0.00     0.02    22.12     3.94P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.26    72.05     6.31    66.84     4.06     4.79     0.00     0.01    19.85     3.26P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.24    49.21    -3.13    66.91     4.07     2.90     0.00     0.02    20.30     4.36P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.51    52.57     4.43    65.56     4.07     7.32     0.00     0.01    14.44     2.70P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.10    50.76    -2.17    65.85     4.02     1.90     0.00     0.00    13.48     2.59P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.87    34.00    -6.17    62.65     4.02    -1.04     0.00     0.00     3.77     0.82P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       3.99    66.85     4.11    61.59     4.04    -5.36     0.00     0.00     1.74     0.26P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.11    50.84     7.85    60.10     4.01     3.69     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.15P    0.18R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.61    43.52    -1.40    59.64     4.01    -4.03     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.11P    0.23R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.27    56.32    -1.34    58.16     3.96   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    1.18R    0.00  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.79    23.03    -3.25    53.44     3.93    -7.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    10.03R    0.52  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.40    44.73    -2.08    52.69     3.93   -15.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.07R    1.09  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.80    16.42    -9.45    53.28     3.96    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.72R    0.48  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.32    36.21    -3.09    52.49     3.98   -13.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.99R    1.27  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.63    31.20    -5.32    52.43     3.99   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.31R    1.56  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.78    30.83     0.17    49.39     3.90   -13.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.25R    4.85  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.02    37.89    -6.83    44.96     3.95   -32.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.86R   41.56  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.76    20.05    -6.12    43.92     3.89   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.12R   48.66  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.60    95.76     9.22    82.05     4.22    20.06    55.68    74.94    98.17    79.55P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.15    59.06     4.49    77.95     3.97    28.79    16.95    41.98    89.79    54.96P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.57    65.47    10.96    75.79     3.94    29.30     8.25    22.52    79.60    36.02P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.64    52.60    -0.44    74.36     3.98    20.06     3.49    11.87    65.13    26.41P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.05    75.28     4.07    74.92     3.93    17.05     4.47    14.00    68.99    26.22P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.15    44.65     8.57    75.92     3.84    35.31     8.52    24.04    82.87    41.03P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.72    33.73    -4.12    72.50     3.72    19.73     0.98     4.38    47.31    17.62P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.97    93.51     5.94    72.06     4.22     4.09     1.35     4.75    38.26     9.30P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.18    39.84     3.48    69.62     4.18    20.89     0.30     1.49    23.74     7.45P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.19    36.32     1.38    66.03     3.60    14.74     0.00     0.01     3.51     0.92P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.95    59.22     6.13    64.76     3.94    10.07     0.00     0.02     2.42     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.98    36.58    -4.37    60.60     4.03     0.41     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.92    33.03    -0.71    56.76     3.92     0.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.92    54.87    -5.53    55.23     3.82   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.45    39.56     3.27    54.96     4.04    -1.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.66    42.99    -5.96    53.68     4.05   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.54    34.87     1.22    50.38     3.87    -9.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.78R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.70    29.97    -1.84    47.22     3.86   -14.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.92    46.77    -1.64    48.28     4.12   -20.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.73R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.83    28.58    -0.82    45.38     3.80   -15.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.76R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.54    48.52    -1.06    40.84     3.86   -32.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.51R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.30     4.49   -17.58    27.28     3.61   -53.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   20.21  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.24    26.06   -14.66    22.18     3.73   -47.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.79  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.29    83.85    10.65    82.79     4.05    26.11    16.94    66.66    99.84    74.96P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.93    86.26     8.62    86.16     4.26    28.15    48.19    87.65    99.99    91.06P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.63    64.85     1.61    83.76     4.07    27.04    23.50    74.49    99.93    82.66P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.80    80.04     0.56    79.12     3.99    12.62     3.04    25.77    98.29    43.56P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.86    80.58    15.08    80.22     4.22    28.60     8.25    42.68    99.41    56.96P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.76    46.71     3.34    71.89     4.05    17.31     0.04     1.47    69.84    20.14P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.47    52.11     4.07    71.03     4.00    14.98     0.02     1.00    61.67    15.76P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.25    78.78     7.04    69.23     3.98     5.86     0.00     0.21    36.70     6.46P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.50    39.47    -4.42    67.58     4.01     5.87     0.00     0.06    25.06     6.51P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.24    67.94    10.49    61.02     3.90     0.89     0.00     0.00     1.22     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.65    38.83    -0.50    63.21     4.18     3.74     0.00     0.01     5.61     1.26P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.75    47.27     7.05    60.40     3.96     3.98     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.93    59.33     1.95    57.90     3.88    -8.02     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.77    38.42    -9.61    60.21     4.25    -9.61     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.17    51.34    -2.64    57.98     4.10    -9.18     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.17    55.80     1.66    55.48     3.92   -10.52     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.34    49.22     2.94    52.87     4.10   -12.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.60    35.24    -9.13    53.81     3.96   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.83    19.73    -9.87    52.60     3.98   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.55    13.03   -11.37    53.21     4.04   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.28     5.66   -11.20    52.80     4.30    -5.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.35    40.04     2.44    45.29     3.74   -19.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.36R    1.36  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.09    24.67    -5.86    41.28     3.80   -29.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.29R   12.29  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.88     1.32   -12.88    33.98     4.13   -28.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.30R   86.30  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.82    82.58    13.37    84.34     4.06    32.00    72.18    99.75    78.59P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.23    74.43     3.40    79.41     4.06    18.60    15.44    94.39    32.04P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.55    27.92    -1.71    77.30     3.78    28.03     6.90    90.76    35.84P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.91    33.65    -2.76    75.55     4.04    21.80     3.67    78.87    25.74P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.23    71.28     9.02    74.41     4.01    18.09     1.37    68.81    14.24P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.43    82.30     2.45    69.21     3.93    -0.49     0.05    15.59     2.42P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.64    84.02     4.94    65.58     3.43    -6.12     0.01     2.21     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.42    36.02     1.61    68.62     3.76    14.85     0.01    14.35     3.42P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.66    53.08     4.90    65.93     3.50     8.00     0.00     2.82     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.96    82.64     4.51    64.32     3.72    -7.62     0.00     1.31     0.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.34    51.32     1.57    70.14     4.53    11.53     0.37    26.49     6.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.23    55.72    -0.88    64.80     3.81    -0.21     0.00     1.81     0.29P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.02    41.81     2.52    64.80     3.82     7.75     0.00     2.24     0.42P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.97    37.81     3.52    62.09     3.77     6.67     0.00     0.34     0.07P    0.09R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.13    67.60     4.86    59.45     4.30    -8.75     0.00     0.24     0.03P    1.56R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.02    55.23     0.31    54.57     3.43   -13.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.38R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.17    51.38    -4.10    56.81     3.98   -14.30     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.18R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.45    28.06    -2.48    55.38     3.96    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.96R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.36    22.06    -8.37    54.54     3.73   -10.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.20R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.89    13.95    -6.43    55.32     3.99    -2.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.80R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.06    26.59   -12.31    49.77     3.40   -23.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.37R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.46    44.33     0.98    49.97     3.67   -17.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.43R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.05    11.63   -14.75    52.01     4.07   -15.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.03R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.73    22.20    -4.17    32.43     3.30   -41.08     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95