Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 8 May 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.07    99.78     2.96   101.46     3.51    56.89   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.66    19.97    -5.31    80.24     3.49    54.25     0.00    98.80    99.98   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.44    66.83    15.06    68.37     4.00    34.43     0.00     1.13    78.01    93.30    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.23    38.48    -3.87    63.15     3.85    16.32     0.00     0.06    12.58    53.82    91.25     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.90    30.39     0.53    61.27     3.90    19.97     0.00     0.00     7.40    34.69    83.71     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.10    66.00     7.42    56.39     4.00     8.56     0.00     0.00     0.46     5.11    34.56     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.70    84.65     9.87    55.10     4.16     2.94     0.00     0.00     0.52     3.54    22.68     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.53    13.26    -7.78    56.87     4.02    12.28     0.00     0.00     0.79     7.04    42.76     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.07    25.73    -5.77    54.82     4.11     5.42     0.00     0.00     0.25     2.40    21.72     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.66    77.42     3.95    49.31     3.68    -9.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.14     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.49    63.15    -0.91    48.84     3.76    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.14     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.60    47.28    -4.31    49.25     3.88    -9.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.47     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.50    63.61    -5.27    45.17     3.74   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.99R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.06    66.46    -1.20    43.75     3.80   -21.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.31R    0.05  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.78    36.16     4.57    37.72     3.64   -13.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.03R    1.73  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.22    20.86    -2.72    38.57     3.90   -16.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.72R    1.83  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.40    28.45    -2.90    36.82     3.76   -21.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.29R    4.27  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.70    27.22    -3.69    35.92     3.69   -24.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.08R    5.22  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.41    43.45     0.81    33.96     3.89   -30.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.06R   16.57  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.04    29.36    -1.42    29.51     3.64   -34.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.48R   70.33  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.81    79.95     7.85    86.86     3.96    31.28    51.43    93.80   100.00    95.72P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.81    65.59     3.46    86.21     4.00    33.02    46.52    91.54   100.00    94.42P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.25    70.84     2.13    77.05     4.04    15.03     1.26     7.90    95.39    29.95P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -5.04    28.87     9.46    75.80     3.99    36.21     0.72     5.72    93.50    38.21P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.25    75.20     5.31    73.41     4.02    11.61     0.07     0.95    78.96    16.62P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       3.13    63.33     1.85    68.74     4.06     5.54     0.00     0.05    35.26     6.76P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.23    67.73    -1.91    67.47     4.06    -1.73     0.00     0.02    22.34     3.93P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.04    71.24     5.97    66.84     4.04     4.81     0.00     0.01    19.65     3.30P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.24    49.19    -3.13    66.87     4.05     2.84     0.00     0.01    20.02     4.28P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.50    52.32     4.48    65.50     4.05     7.25     0.00     0.01    14.33     2.78P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.15    51.14    -2.09    65.79     4.01     1.83     0.00     0.00    12.97     2.57P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.94    33.68    -6.26    62.72     3.99    -0.94     0.00     0.00     3.91     0.85P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.11    67.54     4.33    61.56     4.04    -5.43     0.00     0.00     1.67     0.25P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4      -0.09    50.15     7.60    60.12     4.02     3.78     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.19P    0.17R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.86    42.54    -1.72    59.68     4.02    -3.97     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.14P    0.21R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.39    56.52    -1.19    58.17     3.97   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    1.20R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.59    23.78    -2.93    53.42     3.95    -7.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.48R    0.50  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.50    44.15    -2.27    52.75     3.94   -15.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.55R    0.97  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.95    16.05    -9.66    53.35     3.98    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.47R    0.51  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.28    36.24    -3.13    52.51     3.97   -13.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.12R    1.25  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.72    30.91    -5.47    52.43     3.98   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.86R    1.48  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.71    30.95     0.28    49.38     3.91   -13.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.73R    4.82  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.09    37.51    -6.93    44.95     3.95   -32.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.03R   41.59  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.69    20.08    -6.01    43.89     3.89   -23.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.11R   48.88  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.69    95.73     9.35    82.10     4.23    20.08    56.00    75.54    98.29    79.99P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.01    58.86     4.29    78.00     3.95    28.86    17.26    42.19    89.84    55.38P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.77    66.23    11.28    75.76     3.95    29.26     7.97    22.37    79.44    36.04P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.68    52.84    -0.38    74.34     3.96    20.01     3.53    11.88    65.01    26.09P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.13    75.88     4.23    74.94     3.93    17.07     4.31    13.92    69.44    25.85P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.29    44.10     8.35    75.93     3.84    35.34     8.37    23.78    82.93    41.06P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.75    33.28    -4.17    72.48     3.74    19.72     0.91     4.31    47.03    17.53P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.00    93.50     6.05    72.01     4.21     4.02     1.38     4.41    37.90     9.19P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.35    39.23     3.20    69.65     4.19    20.95     0.29     1.55    24.03     7.50P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.36    35.78     1.10    66.06     3.61    14.77     0.00     0.01     3.59     0.88P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.92    59.05     6.09    64.76     3.93    10.09     0.00     0.03     2.27     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.84    37.51    -4.17    60.56     4.04     0.36     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.99    32.51    -0.77    56.76     3.90     0.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.79    54.20    -5.71    55.25     3.80   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.36    40.07     3.44    54.91     4.00    -1.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.60    43.27    -5.90    53.62     4.02   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.66    34.25     1.07    50.40     3.90    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.82R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.49    30.62    -1.51    47.14     3.85   -14.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.15R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.96    46.37    -1.73    48.32     4.13   -20.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.84R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.85    29.11    -0.86    45.41     3.82   -15.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.85R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.54    48.50    -1.08    40.88     3.85   -32.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.14R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.30     4.60   -17.63    27.28     3.60   -53.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.48  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.17    26.34   -14.55    22.18     3.73   -47.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.52  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.12    83.56    10.37    82.82     4.03    26.16    16.69    66.89    99.88    74.93P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.90    86.30     8.58    86.24     4.27    28.25    48.78    88.06    99.99    91.28P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.52    64.56     1.46    83.79     4.08    27.08    23.47    74.13    99.93    82.23P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.72    79.80     0.46    79.15     4.00    12.72     3.00    25.98    98.40    43.65P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.93    80.68    15.11    80.17     4.23    28.54     8.00    42.37    99.39    56.88P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.90    46.02     3.11    71.87     4.03    17.30     0.05     1.36    70.02    20.24P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.40    51.75     3.94    70.99     4.03    14.93     0.02     0.93    61.08    15.66P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.24    78.84     7.03    69.23     3.96     5.86     0.00     0.23    37.09     6.71P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.39    40.10    -4.30    67.54     4.00     5.83     0.00     0.05    24.90     6.45P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.10    67.66    10.27    61.05     3.93     0.94     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.68    38.81    -0.49    63.21     4.17     3.77     0.00     0.00     5.57     1.31P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.47    48.40     7.42    60.35     3.95     3.91     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.71    58.26     1.71    57.95     3.89    -7.96     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.67    38.78    -9.45    60.16     4.25    -9.68     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.11    50.01    -3.00    58.06     4.12    -9.08     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.23    56.03     1.71    55.48     3.93   -10.49     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.24    49.88     3.07    52.87     4.12   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.55    35.47    -9.02    53.82     3.96   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.87    19.69    -9.93    52.56     3.97   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.20    14.21   -10.94    53.20     4.04   -10.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.15     5.91   -11.04    52.75     4.30    -5.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.36    40.17     2.46    45.30     3.73   -19.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.57R    1.57  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.00    24.78    -5.65    41.23     3.80   -29.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.74R   12.74  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.86     1.28   -12.87    33.99     4.17   -28.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.64R   85.64  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.68    82.64    13.22    84.40     4.02    32.04    72.55    99.80    79.14P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.25    74.58     3.42    79.43     4.07    18.57    15.24    94.58    32.25P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.35    28.32    -1.39    77.24     3.79    27.94     6.94    90.44    35.69P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.56    35.27    -2.26    75.50     4.04    21.71     3.50    78.65    25.21P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.31    71.76     9.21    74.38     4.00    18.06     1.36    68.35    14.12P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.56    82.46     2.63    69.14     3.91    -0.56     0.05    15.28     2.22P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.59    83.73     4.79    65.63     3.44    -6.05     0.00     2.30     0.29P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.63    35.05     1.34    68.64     3.77    14.88     0.00    14.77     3.42P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.63    52.93     4.82    65.96     3.51     8.02     0.00     2.92     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.83    82.11     4.29    64.34     3.70    -7.58     0.00     1.26     0.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.44    51.95     1.71    70.15     4.55    11.55     0.36    27.06     6.25P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.18    55.38    -0.98    64.83     3.83    -0.17     0.00     1.88     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.02    42.06     2.51    64.75     3.80     7.69     0.00     2.05     0.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.81    38.26     3.70    62.11     3.79     6.67     0.00     0.40     0.08P    0.07R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.82    66.19     4.26    59.52     4.30    -8.58     0.00     0.23     0.03P    1.49R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.10    55.48     0.41    54.53     3.44   -13.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.53R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.23    51.61    -4.03    56.78     3.97   -14.31     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.37R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.36    28.39    -2.33    55.36     3.95    -5.38     0.00     0.01     0.00     7.80R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.21    22.52    -8.10    54.49     3.76   -10.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.55R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.12    13.46    -6.70    55.29     4.01    -2.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.06R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.19    26.11   -12.57    49.82     3.39   -23.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.71R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.37    44.86     1.12    49.94     3.69   -17.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.59R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.16    11.52   -14.84    52.03     4.07   -15.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.82R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.85    21.80    -4.26    32.47     3.32   -41.06     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.93