Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 7 May 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.09    99.80     2.99   101.46     3.52    56.88   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.71    19.42    -5.37    80.24     3.51    54.23     0.00    98.83    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.58    67.50    15.26    68.31     4.00    34.34     0.00     1.11    77.90    93.00    99.47     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.09    39.33    -3.65    63.07     3.85    16.17     0.00     0.05    12.30    52.98    90.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.91    30.46     0.53    61.28     3.88    19.98     0.00     0.01     7.54    35.31    83.68     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.21    66.57     7.62    56.35     4.01     8.50     0.00     0.00     0.54     5.03    33.66     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.49    84.20     9.54    55.22     4.17     3.07     0.00     0.00     0.66     3.84    23.17     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.59    13.07    -7.88    56.89     4.05    12.31     0.00     0.00     0.85     7.31    42.77     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.25    25.04    -6.11    54.87     4.14     5.50     0.00     0.00     0.24     2.44    22.40     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.55    76.92     3.83    49.31     3.69    -9.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.10     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.37    62.65    -1.07    48.88     3.77    -9.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.22     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.52    47.95    -4.23    49.25     3.88    -9.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.44     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.56    64.34    -5.11    45.12     3.72   -19.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.03R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.10    66.75    -1.09    43.71     3.81   -21.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.53R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.68    36.93     4.72    37.72     3.64   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.06R    1.72  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.21    20.95    -2.73    38.61     3.95   -16.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.68R    2.12  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.49    28.05    -3.13    36.84     3.75   -21.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.20R    3.92  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.59    27.73    -3.47    35.96     3.69   -24.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.76R    5.17  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.45    43.46     0.77    33.94     3.91   -30.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.14R   16.63  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.99    29.89    -1.41    29.49     3.63   -34.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.55R   70.40  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.75    80.04     7.76    86.86     3.97    31.29    51.35    93.73   100.00    95.78P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.72    65.33     3.39    86.22     4.01    33.06    46.39    91.28    99.99    94.15P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.32    71.38     2.15    77.03     4.05    15.02     1.43     8.03    95.26    29.65P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.99    29.24     9.52    75.79     4.00    36.17     0.76     5.72    93.35    37.95P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.15    74.83     5.19    73.41     4.06    11.59     0.08     1.13    78.49    17.09P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.75    61.59     1.26    68.83     4.07     5.68     0.00     0.05    36.06     7.12P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.11    67.58    -2.04    67.44     4.06    -1.81     0.00     0.01    21.90     3.83P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.22    71.97     6.23    66.86     4.06     4.81     0.00     0.01    19.80     3.47P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.22    49.29    -3.09    66.92     4.08     2.89     0.00     0.01    20.43     4.37P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.28    51.21     4.16    65.54     4.05     7.34     0.00     0.01    14.37     2.74P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.04    50.60    -2.30    65.81     4.00     1.87     0.00     0.01    13.10     2.50P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.02    33.55    -6.38    62.70     4.02    -0.96     0.00     0.00     3.88     0.85P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.28    67.95     4.60    61.56     4.03    -5.44     0.00     0.00     1.52     0.20P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.10    51.03     7.79    60.10     4.01     3.72     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.17P    0.18R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.70    43.28    -1.58    59.69     4.00    -3.97     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.13P    0.23R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.23    56.01    -1.38    58.19     3.96   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.01P    1.18R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.59    23.97    -2.96    53.47     3.94    -7.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.10R    0.49  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.31    45.05    -1.95    52.67     3.92   -15.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.12R    1.05  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.75    16.83    -9.39    53.28     3.99    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.62R    0.53  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.26    36.64    -3.06    52.48     3.97   -13.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.89R    1.17  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.73    30.98    -5.49    52.44     3.98   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.89R    1.52  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.69    30.90     0.35    49.35     3.90   -13.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.84R    4.82  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.98    38.08    -6.72    44.93     3.94   -32.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.86R   41.88  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.73    20.24    -6.08    43.91     3.91   -23.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.02R   48.53  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.78    95.83     9.47    82.08     4.24    20.04    55.64    75.07    98.16    79.63P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.01    58.47     4.34    78.00     4.00    28.84    17.46    42.71    89.69    55.66P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.84    66.66    11.42    75.70     3.97    29.17     7.96    22.15    78.84    35.67P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.52    52.16    -0.63    74.39     3.98    20.09     3.65    12.17    65.45    26.56P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.22    75.96     4.34    74.87     3.93    16.99     4.32    13.59    69.14    25.40P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.08    44.92     8.59    75.87     3.83    35.27     8.35    23.53    82.74    40.81P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.63    33.70    -3.93    72.48     3.72    19.71     0.88     4.32    47.03    17.61P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.94    93.32     5.92    72.06     4.24     4.12     1.46     4.86    38.40     9.51P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.27    39.66     3.29    69.60     4.21    20.88     0.27     1.56    24.02     7.54P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.32    36.12     1.17    66.07     3.62    14.79     0.00     0.01     3.86     1.07P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.77    58.26     5.88    64.79     3.95    10.14     0.00     0.03     2.46     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.87    37.50    -4.26    60.59     4.03     0.38     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.94    32.70    -0.70    56.75     3.93     0.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.73    53.88    -5.82    55.28     3.81   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.54    39.20     3.17    54.96     4.01    -1.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.69    42.45    -6.07    53.67     4.03   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.66    34.01     1.07    50.40     3.86    -9.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.73R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.54    30.64    -1.60    47.15     3.82   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.34R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.80    46.88    -1.46    48.25     4.12   -20.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.24R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.90    28.75    -0.94    45.37     3.81   -15.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.15R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.65    48.26    -1.25    40.97     3.88   -32.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.34R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.19     4.57   -17.42    27.27     3.61   -53.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.49  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.18    26.37   -14.62    22.18     3.75   -47.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.51  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.10    83.65    10.33    82.83     4.03    26.19    16.62    67.15    99.88    75.50P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.92    86.25     8.57    86.23     4.26    28.24    49.23    87.91    99.98    91.16P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.83    65.64     1.87    83.72     4.05    26.98    22.83    74.38    99.91    82.42P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.83    80.11     0.62    79.09     3.98    12.60     2.89    25.15    98.35    42.88P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.90    80.97    15.14    80.22     4.23    28.61     8.35    42.83    99.38    57.38P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.86    46.23     3.15    71.92     4.02    17.36     0.04     1.37    70.45    20.12P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.51    52.20     4.07    70.97     3.99    14.92     0.04     0.93    61.11    15.62P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.39    79.26     7.23    69.21     3.97     5.84     0.00     0.24    36.78     6.69P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.47    39.82    -4.39    67.54     4.01     5.84     0.00     0.04    24.96     6.36P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.23    67.66    10.49    61.00     3.91     0.85     0.00     0.00     1.28     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.59    39.21    -0.38    63.19     4.17     3.73     0.00     0.01     5.33     1.17P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.65    47.62     7.16    60.37     3.96     3.98     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.06    59.79     2.24    57.89     3.89    -8.03     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.76    38.48    -9.59    60.17     4.29    -9.67     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.08    51.16    -2.76    58.00     4.10    -9.16     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.07    55.64     1.51    55.50     3.91   -10.48     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.39    49.06     2.94    52.91     4.10   -12.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.73    34.44    -9.30    53.90     3.96   -17.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.81    20.02    -9.85    52.60     3.98   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.48    13.30   -11.30    53.20     4.07   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.41     5.46   -11.38    52.80     4.32    -5.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.58    39.21     2.11    45.32     3.75   -19.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.33R    1.33  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.00    24.62    -5.72    41.29     3.79   -29.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.28R   12.28  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.77     1.41   -12.74    33.95     4.16   -28.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.35R   86.35  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.77    82.78    13.31    84.37     4.03    32.03    72.76    99.77    78.89P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.45    75.26     3.68    79.33     4.06    18.43    14.97    94.29    31.62P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.46    28.12    -1.58    77.26     3.78    27.98     6.85    90.52    35.70P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.61    34.66    -2.32    75.47     4.03    21.66     3.63    78.52    25.78P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.16    71.14     9.00    74.41     4.01    18.10     1.39    68.73    14.34P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.48    82.39     2.50    69.17     3.93    -0.54     0.05    15.66     2.30P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.28    83.21     4.32    65.67     3.43    -5.96     0.00     2.40     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.70    34.55     1.28    68.63     3.76    14.86     0.01    14.81     3.60P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.68    53.42     4.89    65.95     3.49     8.02     0.00     2.83     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.90    82.28     4.38    64.35     3.73    -7.57     0.00     1.26     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.47    52.11     1.76    70.11     4.51    11.52     0.33    26.55     6.01P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.33    55.90    -0.72    64.79     3.81    -0.23     0.00     1.81     0.30P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.00    42.08     2.52    64.81     3.82     7.77     0.00     2.22     0.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.97    38.06     3.53    62.12     3.78     6.70     0.00     0.37     0.05P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.83    66.48     4.29    59.55     4.27    -8.56     0.00     0.24     0.03P    1.44R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.00    55.17     0.35    54.53     3.45   -13.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.63R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.17    51.34    -4.14    56.81     3.97   -14.27     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.06R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.40    28.11    -2.42    55.39     3.93    -5.32     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.63R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.09    22.78    -7.95    54.50     3.75   -10.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.30R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.92    13.92    -6.41    55.29     3.99    -2.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.05R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.27    25.82   -12.61    49.83     3.39   -23.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.62R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.26    45.30     1.25    49.90     3.67   -17.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.12R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.00    11.57   -14.69    52.03     4.05   -15.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.08R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.79    21.86    -4.23    32.49     3.33   -41.04     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.94