Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 6 May 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.03    99.79     2.94   101.43     3.50    56.82   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.66    19.62    -5.22    80.19     3.53    54.15     0.00    98.71    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.52    67.17    15.19    68.31     3.99    34.35     0.00     1.20    77.92    93.12    99.41     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.13    38.98    -3.70    63.11     3.85    16.21     0.00     0.09    12.33    53.57    91.10     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.71    31.43     0.82    61.24     3.88    19.92     0.00     0.01     7.46    34.76    83.63     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.19    66.21     7.60    56.34     4.03     8.50     0.00     0.00     0.55     5.29    34.10     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.67    84.64     9.84    55.14     4.15     3.00     0.00     0.00     0.59     3.60    22.76     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.53    13.36    -7.85    56.86     4.05    12.27     0.00     0.00     0.92     7.14    42.88     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.20    25.18    -6.03    54.87     4.12     5.47     0.00     0.00     0.26     2.39    22.19     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.63    77.59     3.96    49.31     3.72    -9.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.11     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.37    62.58    -1.12    48.87     3.75    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.12     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.69    47.00    -4.53    49.30     3.93    -9.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.60     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.62    64.48    -5.09    45.14     3.74   -19.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.06R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       2.96    66.19    -1.37    43.75     3.81   -21.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.31R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.75    36.34     4.60    37.75     3.64   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.00R    1.63  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.17    21.28    -2.67    38.61     3.95   -16.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.80R    2.03  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.52    27.83    -3.11    36.84     3.76   -21.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.23R    4.33  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.63    27.45    -3.53    35.94     3.68   -24.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.31R    5.22  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.52    42.99     0.58    34.02     3.91   -30.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.88R   16.02  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.95    30.11    -1.31    29.48     3.63   -34.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.38R   70.73  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.80    80.02     7.82    86.88     3.95    31.31    51.19    94.05   100.00    95.83P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.56    64.66     3.20    86.25     3.99    33.08    46.76    91.53   100.00    94.49P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.57    72.21     2.56    76.95     4.04    14.92     1.28     7.64    95.14    29.51P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.92    29.61     9.64    75.78     3.99    36.15     0.69     5.67    93.51    37.83P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.25    75.21     5.28    73.43     4.03    11.61     0.07     1.02    78.86    16.89P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       3.00    62.79     1.53    68.80     4.06     5.64     0.00     0.04    35.76     7.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.05    66.97    -2.12    67.47     4.05    -1.79     0.00     0.02    22.28     3.89P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.19    72.01     6.25    66.80     4.06     4.76     0.00     0.01    19.42     3.28P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.13    49.65    -2.99    66.87     4.07     2.85     0.00     0.01    20.05     4.35P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.41    52.09     4.34    65.56     4.09     7.31     0.00     0.01    14.43     2.79P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1      -0.01    50.18    -2.39    65.86     4.02     1.93     0.00     0.00    13.35     2.77P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.71    34.86    -5.90    62.64     4.02    -1.06     0.00     0.00     3.76     0.82P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.13    67.62     4.36    61.61     4.03    -5.38     0.00     0.00     1.64     0.25P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4      -0.02    50.58     7.65    60.11     4.02     3.75     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.15P    0.17R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.60    43.56    -1.42    59.63     3.97    -4.04     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.12P    0.23R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.22    55.88    -1.43    58.21     3.94   -10.87     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    1.15R    0.02  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.80    23.29    -3.26    53.46     3.95    -7.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.19R    0.54  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.35    45.00    -2.04    52.67     3.94   -15.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.21R    1.11  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -9.01    15.98    -9.72    53.32     3.99    -9.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.59R    0.52  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.46    35.54    -3.35    52.54     3.99   -13.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.47R    1.26  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.79    30.74    -5.57    52.43     4.00   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.22R    1.56  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.80    30.43     0.21    49.39     3.92   -13.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.87R    4.67  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.89    38.50    -6.63    44.92     3.93   -32.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.82R   41.66  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.72    20.19    -6.03    43.92     3.90   -23.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.99R   48.67  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.68    95.91     9.28    82.11     4.25    20.11    55.86    75.56    98.20    80.10P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.12    58.91     4.48    77.97     3.99    28.80    17.33    42.10    89.57    54.93P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.83    66.59    11.35    75.71     3.96    29.20     7.73    22.03    79.08    35.35P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.46    51.96    -0.70    74.42     3.95    20.11     3.55    12.05    65.97    26.75P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.33    76.16     4.52    74.87     3.93    16.98     4.24    13.57    68.68    25.38P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.14    44.40     8.56    75.92     3.83    35.32     8.65    24.00    82.89    41.28P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.82    32.97    -4.22    72.49     3.70    19.73     0.95     4.30    46.75    17.63P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.95    93.45     5.96    72.08     4.24     4.13     1.41     4.83    38.82     9.60P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.26    39.74     3.33    69.60     4.18    20.88     0.29     1.53    23.74     7.45P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.59    34.69     0.80    66.11     3.59    14.84     0.00     0.01     3.77     1.00P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       2.04    59.49     6.19    64.73     3.95    10.04     0.00     0.03     2.34     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.83    37.58    -4.20    60.54     4.02     0.34     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.94    32.90    -0.70    56.73     3.89     0.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.79    54.24    -5.73    55.25     3.80   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.20    40.69     3.66    54.87     4.03    -1.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.80    42.02    -6.21    53.68     4.05   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.66    34.25     1.06    50.38     3.87    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.85R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.54    30.52    -1.62    47.18     3.83   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.18R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.88    46.68    -1.57    48.30     4.15   -20.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.94R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.94    28.48    -1.02    45.42     3.82   -15.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.76R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.60    48.10    -1.18    40.89     3.88   -32.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.06R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.24     4.43   -17.41    27.24     3.61   -53.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   20.77  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.23    26.15   -14.61    22.22     3.75   -47.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.23  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.37    84.36    10.83    82.78     4.05    26.10    16.62    66.53    99.83    74.54P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.74    85.75     8.34    86.24     4.28    28.27    48.95    87.80    99.99    91.01P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.83    65.62     1.83    83.69     4.08    26.94    22.94    74.18    99.88    82.12P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.81    80.05     0.54    79.13     3.97    12.67     3.01    25.76    98.38    43.82P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.69    80.34    14.81    80.24     4.25    28.62     8.41    42.99    99.31    57.48P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.77    46.58     3.37    71.91     4.04    17.33     0.04     1.47    70.33    20.05P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.44    52.26     3.98    70.97     4.03    14.92     0.02     0.99    60.84    15.52P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.38    79.30     7.19    69.21     3.96     5.84     0.01     0.22    36.64     6.70P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.45    39.92    -4.40    67.61     4.01     5.90     0.00     0.06    25.36     6.74P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       3.95    67.05    10.06    61.08     3.93     0.98     0.00     0.00     1.33     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.60    38.93    -0.45    63.22     4.18     3.77     0.00     0.00     5.57     1.30P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.70    47.42     7.06    60.37     3.94     3.97     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.00    59.55     2.08    57.91     3.90    -8.03     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.68    38.89    -9.46    60.16     4.26    -9.67     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.25    49.65    -3.20    58.06     4.11    -9.09     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.17    55.66     1.64    55.48     3.87   -10.52     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.19    50.08     3.17    52.82     4.12   -12.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.57    35.60    -9.09    53.84     3.98   -17.81     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.91    19.66    -9.98    52.64     3.95   -14.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.46    13.19   -11.25    53.18     4.02   -10.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.23     5.57   -11.11    52.77     4.29    -5.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.34    40.16     2.52    45.28     3.74   -19.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.46R    1.46  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.11    24.19    -5.81    41.30     3.78   -29.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.75R   11.75  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.73     1.25   -12.67    33.93     4.15   -28.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.76R   86.76  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.84    82.98    13.42    84.34     4.04    31.97    71.82    99.78    78.42P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.21    74.46     3.34    79.40     4.08    18.55    15.69    94.34    32.26P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.58    27.56    -1.73    77.31     3.77    28.04     7.20    90.74    36.24P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.45    35.35    -2.09    75.46     4.04    21.64     3.51    78.51    24.91P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.37    71.88     9.19    74.38     4.01    18.06     1.31    68.51    14.52P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.46    82.29     2.47    69.19     3.93    -0.50     0.07    15.58     2.30P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.59    83.82     4.76    65.62     3.44    -6.06     0.00     2.38     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.59    35.35     1.41    68.64     3.76    14.86     0.01    14.76     3.41P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.71    53.01     4.89    65.94     3.50     8.02     0.00     2.82     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.77    82.03     4.19    64.39     3.72    -7.50     0.00     1.34     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.34    51.79     1.60    70.12     4.51    11.54     0.39    26.52     6.09P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.30    55.95    -0.77    64.78     3.82    -0.25     0.00     1.83     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.13    41.36     2.34    64.83     3.83     7.78     0.00     2.30     0.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.98    37.81     3.48    62.14     3.79     6.73     0.00     0.38     0.06P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.97    66.86     4.53    59.48     4.29    -8.66     0.00     0.21     0.03P    1.45R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.03    55.25     0.39    54.53     3.44   -13.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.66R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.31    52.16    -3.88    56.80     3.97   -14.27     0.00     0.00     0.00P    5.18R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.33    28.09    -2.32    55.35     3.93    -5.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.06R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.24    22.46    -8.16    54.47     3.75   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.54R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.13    13.20    -6.72    55.35     3.99    -2.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.63R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.30    25.83   -12.71    49.83     3.39   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.77R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.55    44.23     0.92    49.98     3.68   -17.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.26R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.96    11.80   -14.59    51.95     4.07   -15.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.37R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.64    22.20    -3.99    32.43     3.30   -41.11     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.94