Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 5 May 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.00    99.73     2.77   101.47     3.51    56.90   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.67    19.60    -5.20    80.21     3.53    54.17     0.00    98.74    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.62    67.61    15.34    68.28     3.99    34.29     0.00     1.18    77.72    93.27    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.16    39.02    -3.75    63.08     3.83    16.17     0.00     0.07    12.53    53.31    90.94     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.82    31.09     0.68    61.26     3.89    19.96     0.00     0.01     7.48    34.79    83.61     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.25    66.52     7.65    56.33     4.03     8.49     0.00     0.00     0.56     5.20    33.60     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.43    83.79     9.45    55.21     4.15     3.08     0.00     0.00     0.54     3.72    23.42     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.49    13.47    -7.77    56.87     4.04    12.29     0.00     0.00     0.90     7.20    42.66     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.19    25.17    -6.02    54.88     4.13     5.51     0.00     0.00     0.30     2.39    22.24     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.63    77.51     3.97    49.31     3.72    -9.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.25     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.18    61.67    -1.35    48.93     3.77    -9.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.24     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.48    48.17    -4.15    49.25     3.90    -9.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.47     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.55    64.18    -5.23    45.14     3.71   -19.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.00R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.00    66.43    -1.33    43.74     3.84   -21.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.47R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.75    36.27     4.65    37.75     3.65   -13.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.63R    1.72  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.03    21.81    -2.41    38.56     3.93   -16.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.11R    1.94  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.44    28.14    -3.04    36.88     3.74   -21.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.87R    3.97  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.53    27.79    -3.42    35.91     3.65   -24.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.34R    5.10  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.56    42.83     0.53    33.98     3.92   -30.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.96R   16.35  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.02    29.60    -1.36    29.47     3.62   -34.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.58R   70.89  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.76    79.96     7.77    86.84     3.97    31.25    51.06    93.77   100.00    95.70P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.85    65.66     3.54    86.22     3.99    33.04    46.82    91.50    99.99    94.35P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.36    71.52     2.28    77.00     4.07    14.96     1.41     7.79    95.13    29.56P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -5.14    28.95     9.33    75.81     4.00    36.21     0.66     5.79    93.36    38.23P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.06    74.59     5.05    73.45     4.04    11.65     0.05     1.06    78.74    17.28P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.98    62.81     1.58    68.78     4.07     5.62     0.00     0.05    35.79     7.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.03    66.86    -2.16    67.48     4.06    -1.75     0.00     0.01    22.32     3.88P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.14    71.89     6.13    66.84     4.04     4.80     0.00     0.01    19.77     3.23P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2       0.05    50.63    -2.72    66.81     4.07     2.76     0.00     0.02    19.89     4.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.25    51.28     4.10    65.61     4.06     7.40     0.00     0.01    14.54     2.80P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.09    50.65    -2.25    65.81     4.01     1.85     0.00     0.01    12.98     2.55P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.90    34.28    -6.20    62.71     4.03    -0.95     0.00     0.00     3.99     0.79P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       3.93    66.66     4.07    61.59     4.02    -5.36     0.00     0.00     1.64     0.27P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.18    51.20     7.92    60.04     4.02     3.64     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.16P    0.20R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.76    42.90    -1.63    59.67     3.99    -4.00     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.11P    0.19R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.34    56.45    -1.25    58.23     3.98   -10.85     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    1.18R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.82    23.01    -3.28    53.45     3.94    -7.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.18R    0.52  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.20    45.58    -1.77    52.66     3.94   -15.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.19R    1.18  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -9.00    16.02    -9.69    53.36     3.99    -9.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.25R    0.48  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.25    36.44    -3.01    52.47     3.99   -13.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.12R    1.36  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.51    31.65    -5.12    52.44     3.99   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.90R    1.47  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.91    30.14     0.00    49.42     3.91   -12.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.59R    4.81  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.85    38.74    -6.47    44.90     3.96   -32.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.98R   41.93  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.82    19.87    -6.23    43.92     3.91   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.17R   48.24  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.55    95.72     9.13    82.14     4.24    20.15    55.83    75.42    98.28    79.97P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.05    58.66     4.32    77.99     3.97    28.84    17.26    41.95    89.72    54.83P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.68    65.95    11.12    75.76     3.95    29.25     8.10    22.49    79.53    36.09P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.63    52.68    -0.42    74.38     3.95    20.06     3.62    11.68    65.33    26.16P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.11    75.82     4.18    74.94     3.91    17.10     4.22    13.92    69.45    25.81P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.30    43.81     8.34    75.91     3.85    35.32     8.37    23.85    82.69    41.14P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.78    33.01    -4.19    72.47     3.73    19.74     0.95     4.31    46.83    17.66P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.93    93.36     5.91    72.06     4.24     4.13     1.33     4.74    38.08     9.44P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.20    39.90     3.38    69.63     4.19    20.94     0.32     1.63    23.82     7.42P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.42    35.56     1.03    66.09     3.60    14.82     0.00     0.00     3.71     0.94P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       2.01    59.31     6.20    64.72     3.97    10.03     0.00     0.02     2.36     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.83    37.61    -4.14    60.54     4.02     0.33     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.94    32.79    -0.68    56.71     3.91     0.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.74    54.09    -5.79    55.31     3.84   -14.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.31    40.15     3.52    54.88     4.02    -1.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.74    42.62    -6.11    53.65     4.02   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.38    35.30     1.52    50.32     3.85    -9.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.84R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.71    29.69    -1.83    47.23     3.84   -14.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.08R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.72    47.40    -1.35    48.27     4.14   -20.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.93R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.87    28.66    -0.96    45.35     3.80   -15.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.04R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.56    48.29    -1.08    40.90     3.86   -32.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.90R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.19     4.40   -17.49    27.26     3.61   -53.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   20.75  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.26    26.09   -14.61    22.21     3.75   -47.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.25  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.31    84.28    10.71    82.79     4.05    26.13    16.84    66.69    99.82    75.01P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.83    85.99     8.53    86.18     4.26    28.18    48.83    87.69    99.99    90.93P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.70    65.42     1.64    83.74     4.06    27.00    23.17    74.64    99.92    82.48P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.79    79.97     0.53    79.11     3.99    12.63     3.01    25.92    98.36    43.83P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.99    81.07    15.19    80.21     4.21    28.60     8.09    42.54    99.38    57.03P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.71    46.91     3.41    71.82     4.02    17.24     0.02     1.28    69.69    19.76P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.43    51.72     4.00    71.04     4.01    15.00     0.03     0.96    61.58    15.40P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.36    79.50     7.24    69.18     3.96     5.80     0.00     0.21    36.87     6.86P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.56    39.66    -4.50    67.61     4.01     5.90     0.00     0.06    25.22     6.76P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       3.99    67.23    10.13    61.07     3.93     0.98     0.00     0.00     1.34     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.56    39.32    -0.36    63.19     4.16     3.74     0.00     0.00     5.32     1.25P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.66    47.41     7.21    60.37     3.93     3.94     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.90    59.15     1.93    57.95     3.88    -7.97     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.76    38.40    -9.57    60.16     4.26    -9.68     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.01    50.64    -2.86    58.04     4.12    -9.14     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.15    55.87     1.64    55.48     3.89   -10.50     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.34    49.28     2.98    52.86     4.12   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.56    35.29    -9.04    53.81     3.96   -17.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.78    19.84    -9.81    52.60     3.98   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.02R    0.02  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.69    12.93   -11.63    53.24     4.04   -10.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -13.98     5.91   -10.77    52.73     4.27    -5.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.03  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.53    39.14     2.17    45.33     3.72   -19.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.42R    1.42  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.12    24.53    -5.92    41.30     3.80   -29.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.14R   12.14  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.83     1.35   -12.84    33.96     4.14   -28.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.36R   86.36  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.60    82.30    13.10    84.38     4.01    32.07    72.46    99.80    78.94P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.17    74.34     3.33    79.39     4.06    18.53    15.28    94.39    32.22P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.33    28.43    -1.38    77.24     3.76    27.94     6.87    90.35    35.23P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.70    34.77    -2.48    75.55     4.06    21.78     3.56    78.92    25.85P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.21    71.49     9.03    74.40     4.01    18.07     1.43    68.74    13.96P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.35    81.73     2.31    69.20     3.96    -0.48     0.06    15.60     2.41P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.77    84.17     5.12    65.61     3.43    -6.09     0.00     2.16     0.29P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.41    35.70     1.58    68.62     3.76    14.86     0.01    14.37     3.45P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.65    53.32     4.83    65.96     3.51     8.03     0.00     2.84     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.81    82.03     4.27    64.34     3.73    -7.58     0.00     1.38     0.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.42    51.91     1.71    70.13     4.52    11.55     0.33    26.64     6.15P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.17    55.45    -0.97    64.85     3.83    -0.16     0.00     1.98     0.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.05    41.47     2.48    64.82     3.83     7.78     0.00     2.20     0.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.13    37.05     3.28    62.14     3.80     6.72     0.00     0.38     0.08P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.00    66.97     4.54    59.50     4.28    -8.66     0.00     0.24     0.03P    1.42R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.03    55.21     0.29    54.55     3.46   -13.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.68R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.38    52.43    -3.77    56.78     3.94   -14.32     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.18R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.23    28.61    -2.14    55.32     3.94    -5.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.06R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.40    21.93    -8.36    54.51     3.78   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.43R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.83    14.31    -6.30    55.26     4.01    -2.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.12R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.23    26.16   -12.60    49.80     3.41   -23.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.65R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.56    43.96     0.84    49.97     3.67   -17.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.13R    0.04  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.14    11.70   -14.89    52.01     4.09   -15.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.24R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.52    22.60    -3.81    32.42     3.30   -41.13     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.92