Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 4 May 2020 at 21:00:02 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.06    99.78     2.97   101.46     3.50    56.87   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.72    19.43    -5.36    80.23     3.52    54.20     0.00    98.71    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.51    67.09    15.16    68.33     4.01    34.37     0.00     1.22    77.88    93.00    99.48     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.14    39.13    -3.72    63.10     3.84    16.24     0.00     0.07    12.23    53.10    91.06     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.84    30.95     0.68    61.29     3.89    19.98     0.00     0.01     7.71    35.55    83.66     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.23    66.42     7.68    56.33     4.03     8.46     0.00     0.00     0.55     5.05    34.16     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.46    83.88     9.54    55.19     4.16     3.04     0.00     0.00     0.55     3.75    23.13     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.53    13.27    -7.85    56.86     4.04    12.30     0.00     0.00     0.85     7.11    42.84     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -4.98    26.11    -5.66    54.81     4.12     5.37     0.00     0.00     0.25     2.33    21.79     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.57    77.20     3.83    49.32     3.71    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.15     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.34    62.65    -1.18    48.90     3.75    -9.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.19     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.59    47.67    -4.37    49.27     3.90    -9.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.47     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.53    64.32    -5.20    45.15     3.71   -19.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.93R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.07    67.04    -1.15    43.70     3.83   -21.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.51R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.75    36.27     4.62    37.73     3.62   -13.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.91R    1.68  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.15    21.37    -2.66    38.58     3.92   -16.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.75R    1.93  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.41    28.40    -3.05    36.89     3.76   -21.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.98R    4.12  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.66    27.32    -3.63    35.93     3.67   -24.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.16R    5.11  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.44    43.25     0.71    33.98     3.90   -30.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.03R   16.30  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.06    29.58    -1.37    29.47     3.64   -34.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.68R   70.82  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.91    80.53     7.95    86.86     3.96    31.28    50.91    93.97   100.00    95.80P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.73    65.41     3.40    86.24     3.99    33.09    46.92    91.23   100.00    94.14P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.26    70.82     2.11    77.03     4.09    15.01     1.41     8.08    95.33    29.94P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.86    29.71     9.71    75.74     3.99    36.09     0.65     5.53    93.37    37.57P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.01    74.15     4.97    73.46     4.04    11.65     0.11     1.09    79.16    17.47P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.81    62.06     1.34    68.79     4.08     5.66     0.00     0.04    35.77     6.81P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.05    67.10    -2.15    67.49     4.07    -1.74     0.00     0.02    22.30     4.03P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.12    71.62     6.08    66.85     4.03     4.81     0.00     0.01    19.38     3.32P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.06    49.99    -2.89    66.86     4.06     2.83     0.00     0.01    19.79     4.15P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.57    52.72     4.60    65.50     4.06     7.25     0.00     0.01    14.06     2.66P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.03    50.35    -2.30    65.87     4.00     1.94     0.00     0.01    13.48     2.75P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.00    33.62    -6.34    62.70     4.02    -0.97     0.00     0.00     3.84     0.78P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       3.97    67.11     4.13    61.61     4.02    -5.35     0.00     0.00     1.56     0.21P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.01    50.37     7.70    60.10     3.99     3.72     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.20P    0.18R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.73    42.81    -1.56    59.63     3.99    -4.04     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.16P    0.22R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.56    57.35    -0.95    58.13     3.97   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    1.21R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.67    23.65    -3.05    53.44     3.92    -7.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.23R    0.46  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.48    44.60    -2.19    52.69     3.94   -15.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.76R    1.09  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.75    16.65    -9.35    53.24     3.98    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.86R    0.52  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.60    34.98    -3.45    52.55     3.99   -13.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.68R    1.25  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.59    31.51    -5.27    52.45     3.99   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.94R    1.52  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.68    31.19     0.30    49.37     3.89   -13.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.60R    4.88  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.94    38.18    -6.67    44.92     3.93   -32.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.12R   41.68  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.79    20.13    -6.14    43.93     3.90   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.12R   48.59  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.68    95.78     9.29    82.13     4.23    20.11    56.07    75.69    98.27    80.30P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.94    58.23     4.20    77.95     4.00    28.80    17.25    42.21    89.63    55.28P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.94    67.17    11.55    75.70     3.97    29.14     8.05    22.08    79.07    35.79P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.59    52.36    -0.51    74.36     3.99    20.06     3.53    11.86    65.25    26.35P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.28    76.28     4.40    74.88     3.92    16.99     4.18    13.75    69.04    25.41P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.11    44.66     8.61    75.86     3.84    35.25     8.16    23.56    82.55    40.78P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.81    32.90    -4.28    72.53     3.72    19.78     0.91     4.46    47.58    17.79P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.92    93.23     5.90    72.04     4.24     4.08     1.51     4.80    38.52     9.59P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.30    39.34     3.28    69.63     4.15    20.90     0.33     1.55    23.79     7.22P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.50    35.19     0.95    66.11     3.61    14.85     0.00     0.01     3.69     0.97P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.98    59.25     6.16    64.77     3.95    10.10     0.01     0.03     2.39     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.66    38.36    -3.91    60.55     4.01     0.33     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.87    33.22    -0.65    56.76     3.93     0.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.83    54.44    -5.66    55.26     3.80   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.64    38.94     3.03    54.97     4.04    -1.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.73    42.56    -6.10    53.66     4.04   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.51    35.02     1.30    50.35     3.86    -9.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.90R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.67    29.83    -1.79    47.21     3.82   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.89R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.71    47.53    -1.29    48.24     4.16   -20.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.12R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.90    28.74    -0.96    45.37     3.81   -15.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.00R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.56    48.59    -1.13    40.90     3.85   -32.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.86R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.26     4.42   -17.50    27.26     3.62   -53.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   20.83  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.35    26.03   -14.86    22.23     3.75   -47.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.17  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.27    83.93    10.60    82.82     4.03    26.14    16.63    67.08    99.89    75.39P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.92    86.36     8.61    86.21     4.28    28.21    48.59    87.74    99.99    91.12P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.71    65.19     1.71    83.76     4.08    27.04    23.50    74.35    99.94    82.34P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.81    79.77     0.61    79.10     4.00    12.62     3.02    25.73    98.36    43.41P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       8.00    81.00    15.25    80.18     4.22    28.56     8.19    42.53    99.33    56.96P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.97    45.77     3.05    71.90     4.02    17.34     0.03     1.37    70.44    20.42P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.59    52.76     4.21    70.94     4.00    14.85     0.03     0.93    60.70    15.30P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.22    78.91     7.01    69.18     3.98     5.81     0.00     0.22    36.47     6.69P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.60    39.16    -4.55    67.59     4.00     5.90     0.00     0.06    25.33     6.41P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.16    67.84    10.43    61.06     3.94     0.94     0.00     0.00     1.38     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.68    38.59    -0.54    63.21     4.16     3.76     0.00     0.00     5.60     1.25P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.67    47.41     7.13    60.37     3.94     3.94     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.03    59.63     2.12    57.90     3.88    -8.05     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.74    38.80    -9.60    60.18     4.28    -9.64     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.16    49.92    -3.05    58.10     4.11    -9.04     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.13    55.83     1.54    55.50     3.90   -10.47     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.23    49.76     3.12    52.86     4.11   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.61    35.00    -9.17    53.85     3.98   -17.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.70    20.21    -9.67    52.58     3.96   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.49    13.13   -11.32    53.22     4.05   -10.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.07     5.86   -10.92    52.72     4.27    -5.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.45    39.76     2.27    45.31     3.75   -19.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.49R    1.49  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.06    24.62    -5.80    41.29     3.80   -29.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.45R   12.45  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.97     1.33   -13.06    34.00     4.17   -28.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.01R   86.01  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.75    82.59    13.32    84.31     4.03    31.94    71.78    99.78    78.19P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.30    74.72     3.48    79.40     4.07    18.55    15.68    94.41    32.31P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.40    28.34    -1.50    77.25     3.77    27.96     6.87    90.62    35.64P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.74    34.46    -2.57    75.57     4.06    21.82     3.93    79.01    25.93P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.42    71.97     9.30    74.36     4.01    18.04     1.29    68.21    14.02P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.46    82.19     2.48    69.17     3.93    -0.53     0.07    15.78     2.37P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.52    83.63     4.73    65.62     3.42    -6.07     0.00     2.21     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.62    35.15     1.36    68.62     3.77    14.87     0.00    14.55     3.54P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.57    52.67     4.70    65.96     3.50     8.05     0.00     2.82     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.76    82.03     4.16    64.38     3.73    -7.53     0.00     1.37     0.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.38    51.69     1.59    70.13     4.51    11.55     0.37    26.44     6.14P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.22    55.41    -0.91    64.80     3.81    -0.20     0.00     1.83     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -1.98    41.96     2.64    64.77     3.82     7.70     0.00     2.32     0.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.98    37.92     3.49    62.14     3.79     6.71     0.00     0.42     0.07P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.02    67.19     4.61    59.47     4.27    -8.68     0.00     0.20     0.04P    1.49R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       0.94    54.89     0.18    54.57     3.44   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.48R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.32    51.85    -3.87    56.77     3.96   -14.32     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.24R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.38    28.16    -2.38    55.39     3.93    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.80R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.35    22.24    -8.34    54.52     3.77   -10.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.24R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.19    13.23    -6.79    55.37     3.98    -2.82     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.63R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.15    25.90   -12.42    49.81     3.40   -23.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.75R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.15    46.01     1.45    49.89     3.68   -17.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.12R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.05    11.79   -14.76    52.00     4.08   -15.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.17R    0.03  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.62    22.62    -3.95    32.47     3.32   -41.08     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.93