Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 3 May 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.02    99.75     2.83   101.48     3.51    56.92   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.55    20.06    -5.12    80.20     3.53    54.18     0.00    98.80    99.96    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.50    67.24    15.18    68.30     3.99    34.34     0.00     1.13    77.82    93.00    99.54     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.21    38.44    -3.82    63.11     3.84    16.23     0.00     0.06    12.33    53.29    90.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.97    30.50     0.40    61.34     3.87    20.08     0.00     0.01     7.76    35.60    84.17     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.22    66.33     7.63    56.35     4.01     8.52     0.00     0.00     0.43     5.10    33.88     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.46    83.82     9.52    55.20     4.16     3.06     0.00     0.00     0.54     3.52    23.17     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.57    13.21    -7.90    56.88     4.03    12.32     0.00     0.00     0.86     7.04    42.63     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.05    25.73    -5.75    54.85     4.12     5.42     0.00     0.00     0.29     2.33    21.75     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.63    77.39     3.97    49.34     3.70    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.10     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.45    63.02    -0.98    48.86     3.75    -9.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.16     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.73    46.71    -4.58    49.30     3.91    -9.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.53     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.50    63.98    -5.24    45.18     3.71   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.09R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.07    66.78    -1.20    43.67     3.78   -21.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.44R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.67    36.84     4.71    37.70     3.63   -13.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.07R    1.65  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.05    21.53    -2.47    38.56     3.93   -16.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.13R    1.92  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.60    27.29    -3.25    36.89     3.74   -21.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.15R    3.97  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.65    27.46    -3.56    35.93     3.64   -24.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.85R    4.99  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.31    43.96     0.95    33.91     3.89   -30.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.63R   16.95  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.99    29.80    -1.30    29.47     3.63   -34.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.61R   70.47  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.78    80.12     7.75    86.88     3.96    31.31    51.69    94.01   100.00    95.97P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.71    65.21     3.31    86.21     4.02    33.06    46.21    91.36    99.99    94.35P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.25    71.05     2.09    77.03     4.04    15.01     1.37     7.88    95.27    30.33P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.91    29.73     9.69    75.74     4.00    36.11     0.66     5.59    93.19    37.37P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.15    75.01     5.19    73.37     4.02    11.55     0.07     1.07    78.71    16.54P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       3.10    63.53     1.79    68.78     4.07     5.62     0.00     0.04    35.52     6.94P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       3.92    66.35    -2.30    67.53     4.04    -1.69     0.00     0.01    22.63     3.97P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.07    71.41     6.02    66.89     4.07     4.85     0.00     0.01    19.94     3.48P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.20    49.33    -3.07    66.91     4.07     2.93     0.00     0.01    20.47     4.26P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.29    51.59     4.18    65.53     4.10     7.28     0.00     0.01    14.17     2.73P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.02    50.22    -2.32    65.84     4.00     1.90     0.00     0.00    13.14     2.77P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.80    34.51    -6.11    62.70     4.01    -0.99     0.00     0.00     3.75     0.80P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.32    68.47     4.67    61.51     4.02    -5.50     0.00     0.00     1.50     0.20P    0.05R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.29    51.67     8.10    60.06     3.99     3.66     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.16P    0.16R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.80    42.64    -1.69    59.67     4.01    -3.98     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.12P    0.23R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.15    55.55    -1.54    58.21     3.98   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.01P    1.23R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.93    22.85    -3.39    53.49     3.96    -7.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.03R    0.56  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.31    44.99    -1.93    52.70     3.95   -15.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.01R    1.16  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.78    16.77    -9.40    53.26     3.99    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.82R    0.57  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.49    35.65    -3.37    52.54     3.98   -13.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.43R    1.20  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.49    31.96    -5.16    52.40     4.01   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.50R    1.56  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.51    31.83     0.54    49.37     3.91   -13.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.71R    4.98  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.03    37.81    -6.84    44.94     3.96   -32.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.67R   41.71  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.87    20.14    -6.23    43.93     3.91   -23.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.14R   48.25  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.71    95.74     9.32    82.10     4.26    20.08    55.61    75.45    98.11    79.91P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.01    58.60     4.34    78.01     3.99    28.87    17.52    42.34    89.85    55.53P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.70    66.29    11.21    75.75     3.95    29.24     7.94    22.16    79.47    35.76P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.57    52.30    -0.54    74.36     3.96    20.05     3.61    11.89    65.15    26.22P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.18    75.56     4.34    74.88     3.92    17.01     4.18    13.46    69.07    25.53P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.29    43.99     8.26    75.94     3.84    35.36     8.56    24.06    83.09    41.34P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.69    33.59    -4.07    72.50     3.72    19.75     0.92     4.36    47.23    17.56P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.99    93.46     6.02    72.05     4.22     4.10     1.36     4.71    38.31     9.34P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.27    39.55     3.27    69.62     4.19    20.91     0.30     1.53    23.73     7.47P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.46    35.14     0.97    66.07     3.61    14.83     0.00     0.02     3.57     0.86P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.99    59.41     6.19    64.75     3.93    10.06     0.00     0.03     2.28     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.66    38.44    -3.94    60.52     4.03     0.28     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.90    32.87    -0.64    56.74     3.90     0.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.79    54.34    -5.72    55.26     3.81   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.57    39.05     3.15    54.96     4.03    -1.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.76    42.14    -6.16    53.67     4.03   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.68    34.08     1.05    50.38     3.83    -9.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.80R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.55    30.79    -1.64    47.20     3.83   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.04R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.88    46.66    -1.58    48.26     4.13   -20.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.11R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.80    29.07    -0.80    45.41     3.82   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.70R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.50    48.56    -1.05    40.90     3.86   -32.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.14R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.25     4.59   -17.49    27.24     3.62   -53.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.71  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.18    26.50   -14.49    22.18     3.75   -47.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.29  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.16    83.90    10.43    82.83     4.03    26.19    16.58    67.01    99.86    75.26P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.76    85.80     8.36    86.26     4.25    28.28    49.15    88.03    99.99    91.20P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.65    64.94     1.59    83.76     4.09    27.00    23.22    74.55    99.91    82.56P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.69    79.79     0.45    79.12     3.97    12.68     2.77    25.40    98.35    43.39P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.91    81.14    15.13    80.19     4.22    28.56     8.23    42.57    99.35    57.07P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.78    46.63     3.31    71.89     4.01    17.31     0.04     1.17    70.13    19.89P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.46    51.85     3.99    71.04     4.01    15.00     0.01     1.01    61.53    15.62P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.24    79.16     7.04    69.19     3.98     5.82     0.01     0.22    36.72     6.68P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.47    39.84    -4.38    67.53     4.01     5.81     0.00     0.04    24.76     6.37P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.33    68.38    10.62    60.99     3.94     0.85     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.65    38.62    -0.50    63.22     4.17     3.79     0.00     0.00     5.61     1.29P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.75    47.13     7.01    60.38     3.93     3.97     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.95    59.41     2.02    57.92     3.91    -8.02     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.47    40.06    -9.21    60.12     4.27    -9.73     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.06    50.33    -2.95    58.04     4.12    -9.11     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.19    56.06     1.68    55.47     3.88   -10.52     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.31    49.37     2.98    52.88     4.10   -12.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.56    35.43    -9.03    53.83     3.99   -17.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.82    19.85    -9.89    52.59     3.94   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.26    13.79   -10.93    53.15     4.04   -10.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.07     5.86   -10.94    52.72     4.28    -5.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.58    38.92     2.10    45.35     3.73   -19.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.36R    1.36  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.14    24.25    -5.88    41.27     3.79   -29.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.41R   12.41  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.95     1.22   -13.02    34.03     4.12   -28.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.18R   86.18  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.78    82.65    13.36    84.36     4.05    32.01    72.10    99.81    78.58P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.10    73.96     3.15    79.40     4.07    18.55    15.44    94.44    32.57P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.43    27.97    -1.53    77.28     3.78    27.99     7.07    90.54    36.00P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.68    34.60    -2.43    75.57     4.04    21.80     3.60    79.19    25.54P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.40    72.14     9.30    74.39     4.02    18.07     1.35    68.35    13.97P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.62    82.69     2.71    69.11     3.94    -0.64     0.05    15.16     2.12P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.64    83.80     4.86    65.61     3.43    -6.08     0.00     2.24     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.62    35.26     1.36    68.64     3.77    14.89     0.01    14.85     3.50P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.53    52.38     4.67    65.98     3.51     8.08     0.00     2.99     0.54P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.83    82.12     4.32    64.33     3.71    -7.60     0.00     1.34     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.51    52.44     1.84    70.07     4.55    11.46     0.36    26.34     5.87P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.15    55.21    -1.00    64.82     3.82    -0.19     0.00     1.88     0.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -1.95    42.49     2.67    64.79     3.82     7.73     0.00     2.24     0.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.98    37.62     3.48    62.12     3.77     6.67     0.00     0.37     0.07P    0.07R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.94    66.86     4.50    59.48     4.28    -8.68     0.00     0.24     0.03P    1.49R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       0.95    54.91     0.22    54.56     3.43   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.34R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.15    51.15    -4.14    56.82     3.96   -14.23     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.14R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.42    27.99    -2.39    55.40     3.94    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.77R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.13    23.19    -8.00    54.49     3.76   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.85R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.96    13.82    -6.52    55.33     3.98    -2.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.88R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.36    25.19   -12.81    49.85     3.40   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.51R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.38    44.88     1.16    49.92     3.67   -17.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.86R    0.01  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.05    11.96   -14.70    52.02     4.09   -15.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.08R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.71    22.26    -4.09    32.46     3.31   -41.06     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.96