Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 2 May 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.09    99.79     3.00   101.43     3.50    56.81   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.74    19.25    -5.38    80.24     3.51    54.23     0.00    98.68    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.46    67.07    15.07    68.35     4.00    34.40     0.00     1.24    77.95    93.13    99.57     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.16    38.98    -3.72    63.12     3.86    16.25     0.00     0.07    12.37    53.23    91.27     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.88    30.60     0.58    61.31     3.90    20.02     0.00     0.01     7.72    35.57    83.78     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.21    66.69     7.59    56.36     4.00     8.51     0.00     0.00     0.47     4.99    34.42     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.69    84.71     9.86    55.11     4.12     2.94     0.00     0.00     0.48     3.43    22.43     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.56    13.28    -7.86    56.82     4.04    12.23     0.00     0.00     0.84     7.06    42.48     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.15    25.32    -5.92    54.84     4.12     5.45     0.00     0.00     0.22     2.43    22.00     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.61    77.23     3.92    49.36     3.69    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.18     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.26    62.05    -1.27    48.91     3.78    -9.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.29     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.62    47.42    -4.38    49.26     3.90    -9.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.48     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.61    64.58    -5.19    45.18     3.71   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.95R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.01    66.49    -1.33    43.79     3.83   -21.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.31R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.75    36.33     4.61    37.71     3.64   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.59R    1.69  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.23    20.87    -2.74    38.63     3.92   -16.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.57R    1.77  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.34    28.48    -2.87    36.80     3.73   -21.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.25R    4.15  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.59    27.88    -3.48    35.89     3.66   -24.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.36R    5.05  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.36    43.87     0.88    33.93     3.91   -30.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.22R   16.69  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.06    29.51    -1.37    29.47     3.63   -34.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.72R   70.62  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.79    80.03     7.82    86.86     3.95    31.26    51.50    93.94   100.00    95.78P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.69    65.07     3.34    86.24     4.01    33.06    46.49    91.70   100.00    94.42P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.53    71.81     2.49    76.97     4.05    14.95     1.25     7.73    95.13    29.84P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.81    29.67     9.80    75.74     4.01    36.11     0.67     5.58    93.25    37.81P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.33    75.57     5.46    73.33     4.03    11.48     0.08     0.99    78.44    16.70P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.93    62.62     1.52    68.77     4.04     5.60     0.00     0.04    35.57     7.09P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.10    67.22    -2.04    67.47     4.05    -1.76     0.00     0.01    22.23     3.82P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.17    71.81     6.17    66.82     4.05     4.77     0.00     0.00    19.56     3.38P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.31    48.96    -3.29    66.94     4.07     2.93     0.00     0.01    20.91     4.31P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.42    52.08     4.33    65.58     4.06     7.35     0.00     0.00    14.52     2.77P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.11    50.84    -2.14    65.80     4.00     1.85     0.00     0.00    13.07     2.63P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.08    33.26    -6.50    62.71     4.01    -0.93     0.00     0.00     3.81     0.86P    0.02R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.02    67.14     4.16    61.60     4.01    -5.36     0.00     0.00     1.66     0.26P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.07    50.80     7.79    60.14     4.01     3.76     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.19P    0.19R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.66    43.28    -1.46    59.68     4.01    -3.97     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.11P    0.19R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.11    55.67    -1.53    58.20     3.96   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    1.23R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.72    23.47    -3.16    53.43     3.93    -7.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.15R    0.51  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.37    44.74    -2.07    52.70     3.94   -15.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.77R    1.07  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -9.05    15.71    -9.81    53.33     3.98    -9.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.70R    0.48  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.39    35.71    -3.20    52.51     3.99   -13.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.76R    1.31  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.49    31.78    -5.13    52.44     3.98   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.03R    1.57  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.68    31.00     0.29    49.38     3.91   -13.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.86R    4.75  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.96    38.26    -6.66    44.92     3.94   -32.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.10R   41.91  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.77    19.85    -6.18    43.95     3.91   -23.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.94R   48.40  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.71    95.75     9.33    82.09     4.24    20.05    55.68    75.47    98.14    79.93P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.12    58.80     4.56    77.97     3.97    28.81    17.27    42.27    89.42    55.11P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.81    66.71    11.37    75.73     3.96    29.20     7.96    22.12    79.39    35.65P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.67    52.73    -0.44    74.36     3.96    20.04     3.59    11.87    65.11    26.12P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.10    75.45     4.17    74.91     3.92    17.05     4.24    13.74    69.25    25.83P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.29    44.11     8.32    75.92     3.83    35.32     8.64    23.99    83.07    41.51P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.91    32.69    -4.38    72.50     3.72    19.75     0.90     4.34    47.32    17.86P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.93    93.30     5.92    72.07     4.20     4.10     1.40     4.68    38.36     9.38P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.15    40.31     3.48    69.59     4.19    20.87     0.31     1.49    23.47     7.06P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.46    35.44     0.94    66.12     3.61    14.87     0.00     0.01     3.78     1.00P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.89    58.76     6.01    64.80     3.96    10.14     0.00     0.03     2.48     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.79    37.73    -4.11    60.54     4.03     0.33     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -4.06    32.38    -0.90    56.79     3.92     0.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.72    53.68    -5.84    55.25     3.79   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.37    39.82     3.41    54.93     4.02    -1.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.74    42.37    -6.10    53.65     4.03   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.54    34.66     1.25    50.37     3.85    -9.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.81R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.48    30.72    -1.51    47.14     3.83   -14.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.33R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.87    46.77    -1.52    48.26     4.15   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.09R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.80    28.92    -0.79    45.38     3.79   -15.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.82R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.49    48.72    -1.03    40.89     3.86   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.74R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.25     4.62   -17.55    27.29     3.63   -53.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.39  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.20    26.39   -14.60    22.18     3.74   -47.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.61  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.08    83.70    10.30    82.89     4.05    26.25    17.07    67.35    99.86    75.72P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.90    86.11     8.58    86.23     4.25    28.26    48.61    87.81    99.99    91.21P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.62    64.67     1.56    83.79     4.09    27.07    23.34    74.48    99.90    82.59P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.78    79.84     0.56    79.15     3.99    12.67     2.97    25.78    98.40    43.75P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.97    80.75    15.22    80.17     4.25    28.54     7.95    42.10    99.35    56.65P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.79    46.54     3.28    71.86     4.01    17.29     0.03     1.30    69.84    19.54P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.59    52.53     4.20    70.96     4.03    14.86     0.02     0.89    60.96    15.35P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.25    78.77     7.06    69.20     3.97     5.85     0.00     0.23    37.08     6.80P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.60    39.01    -4.53    67.58     4.00     5.87     0.00     0.06    25.37     6.47P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.37    68.77    10.70    60.99     3.92     0.81     0.00     0.00     1.16     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.83    38.19    -0.72    63.21     4.18     3.77     0.00     0.00     5.57     1.25P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.83    46.82     6.87    60.42     3.93     4.06     0.00     0.00     1.12     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.27    60.90     2.46    57.85     3.86    -8.08     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.55    39.34    -9.32    60.12     4.27    -9.74     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.07    51.11    -2.78    58.05     4.10    -9.10     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.25    56.15     1.77    55.46     3.87   -10.51     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.27    49.76     3.05    52.85     4.12   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.68    34.90    -9.23    53.83     3.98   -17.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.83    19.96    -9.86    52.61     3.96   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.54    13.24   -11.38    53.23     4.03   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.15     5.85   -10.98    52.72     4.29    -5.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.46    39.75     2.26    45.32     3.74   -19.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.45R    1.45  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.21    23.86    -5.98    41.30     3.80   -29.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.50R   12.50  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -18.00     1.26   -13.09    34.02     4.15   -28.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.00R   86.00  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.81    82.62    13.35    84.32     4.01    31.97    71.90    99.78    78.58P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.01    73.98     3.06    79.45     4.06    18.61    15.80    94.43    33.02P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.28    28.83    -1.40    77.26     3.77    27.96     6.84    90.63    35.65P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.56    35.10    -2.30    75.49     4.06    21.68     3.57    78.61    25.55P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.20    71.25     9.00    74.40     4.03    18.07     1.47    68.59    13.93P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.52    82.35     2.64    69.15     3.94    -0.57     0.07    15.41     2.33P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.45    83.32     4.69    65.61     3.43    -6.05     0.00     2.24     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.58    35.08     1.43    68.61     3.77    14.83     0.01    14.62     3.35P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.58    52.52     4.76    65.95     3.50     8.00     0.00     2.80     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       9.02    82.73     4.59    64.33     3.72    -7.59     0.00     1.31     0.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.44    52.15     1.75    70.12     4.53    11.52     0.34    26.92     5.90P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.37    56.11    -0.60    64.76     3.81    -0.27     0.00     1.72     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.15    41.27     2.35    64.80     3.82     7.75     0.00     2.30     0.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.03    37.68     3.44    62.13     3.77     6.71     0.00     0.44     0.09P    0.05R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.12    67.31     4.72    59.48     4.27    -8.69     0.00     0.20     0.02P    1.46R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.20    55.86     0.63    54.54     3.44   -13.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.62R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.11    51.30    -4.20    56.87     3.96   -14.19     0.00     0.02     0.00P    5.15R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.36    28.33    -2.38    55.41     3.94    -5.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.96R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.26    22.42    -8.20    54.52     3.76   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.55R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.90    13.96    -6.43    55.34     3.97    -2.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.59R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.32    25.52   -12.71    49.83     3.41   -23.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.83R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.47    44.47     0.97    49.94     3.67   -17.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.63R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.08    11.45   -14.77    51.99     4.07   -15.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.15R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.87    21.41    -4.40    32.46     3.32   -41.02     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.93