Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 1 May 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.09    99.75     3.02   101.45     3.51    56.88   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.62    19.84    -5.12    80.19     3.51    54.14     0.00    98.79    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.56    67.37    15.27    68.31     3.99    34.33     0.00     1.14    78.06    93.12    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.15    38.98    -3.71    63.08     3.86    16.19     0.00     0.06    12.30    53.02    91.06     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.85    30.85     0.64    61.30     3.87    19.98     0.00     0.01     7.47    35.44    83.79     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       2.99    65.15     7.29    56.40     4.02     8.58     0.00     0.00     0.50     5.25    34.62     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.57    84.30     9.70    55.15     4.17     2.98     0.00     0.00     0.59     3.69    22.82     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.50    13.26    -7.79    56.84     4.02    12.26     0.00     0.00     0.83     6.99    42.66     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -4.96    26.31    -5.61    54.81     4.11     5.35     0.00     0.00     0.28     2.36    21.49     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.61    77.24     3.90    49.33     3.70    -9.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.15     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.22    61.95    -1.36    48.92     3.78    -9.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.26     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.69    47.18    -4.50    49.29     3.92    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.54     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.66    64.75    -5.07    45.16     3.72   -19.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.04R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.04    66.44    -1.25    43.74     3.81   -21.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.35R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.68    36.74     4.72    37.70     3.63   -13.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.98R    1.73  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.16    21.13    -2.68    38.56     3.93   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.07R    2.00  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.59    27.54    -3.27    36.88     3.73   -21.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.94R    3.99  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.46    28.21    -3.37    35.91     3.66   -24.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.12R    5.04  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.48    43.17     0.65    33.98     3.90   -30.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.83R   16.59  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.07    29.60    -1.44    29.50     3.62   -34.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.63R   70.61  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.80    80.09     7.80    86.89     3.94    31.31    51.34    94.11   100.00    95.92P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.58    64.77     3.11    86.26     3.99    33.12    46.52    91.80   100.00    94.68P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.34    71.40     2.25    77.00     4.01    15.00     1.34     7.58    95.43    29.56P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.92    29.26     9.64    75.74     4.00    36.12     0.73     5.48    93.21    37.24P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       5.94    73.96     4.90    73.42     4.06    11.63     0.07     0.95    78.43    16.96P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.79    61.84     1.30    68.81     4.08     5.67     0.00     0.05    35.90     7.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       3.99    66.79    -2.17    67.49     4.05    -1.74     0.00     0.01    22.18     3.96P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.16    71.84     6.16    66.85     4.06     4.81     0.00     0.00    19.76     3.36P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.18    49.49    -3.02    66.89     4.07     2.87     0.00     0.01    20.05     4.30P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.39    52.02     4.25    65.55     4.05     7.30     0.00     0.00    14.29     2.77P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1      -0.00    50.21    -2.31    65.88     4.02     1.95     0.00     0.01    13.51     2.76P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.94    33.65    -6.30    62.68     4.01    -1.00     0.00     0.00     3.78     0.87P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.20    67.99     4.51    61.56     4.04    -5.43     0.00     0.00     1.62     0.24P    0.05R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4      -0.06    50.08     7.60    60.14     3.99     3.79     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.16P    0.15R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.80    42.65    -1.69    59.69     4.00    -3.96     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.15P    0.23R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.40    56.88    -1.16    58.15     3.94   -10.97     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    1.17R    0.00  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.73    23.55    -3.16    53.43     3.94    -7.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.10R    0.54  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.20    45.56    -1.82    52.66     3.93   -15.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.91R    1.04  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.88    16.15    -9.56    53.27     3.99    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.88R    0.50  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.26    36.61    -3.05    52.50     3.98   -13.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.77R    1.27  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.56    31.74    -5.22    52.43     3.96   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.97R    1.49  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.58    31.68     0.54    49.37     3.89   -13.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.78R    4.60  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.94    38.04    -6.64    44.93     3.97   -32.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.78R   41.67  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.66    20.47    -5.95    43.89     3.90   -23.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.20R   48.87  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.60    95.64     9.18    82.11     4.23    20.08    55.95    75.38    98.20    79.92P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.11    58.75     4.46    77.98     3.98    28.79    17.39    42.30    89.58    55.27P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.75    66.56    11.24    75.73     3.96    29.19     7.97    22.12    79.28    35.89P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.66    53.02    -0.46    74.40     3.95    20.10     3.45    12.16    65.50    26.60P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.08    75.23     4.15    74.94     3.91    17.12     4.31    13.60    69.70    25.59P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.17    44.41     8.51    75.91     3.82    35.33     8.29    23.87    83.03    41.32P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.54    34.13    -3.87    72.45     3.73    19.68     0.93     4.28    46.24    17.44P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.93    93.52     5.84    72.09     4.21     4.14     1.40     4.70    38.64     9.28P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.18    40.04     3.45    69.60     4.18    20.87     0.30     1.55    23.60     7.15P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.54    34.97     0.88    66.10     3.61    14.85     0.00     0.01     3.64     1.01P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.90    58.82     6.02    64.75     3.95    10.10     0.01     0.04     2.39     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.80    37.85    -4.14    60.57     4.02     0.36     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -4.09    32.23    -0.95    56.79     3.92     0.24     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.84    54.30    -5.64    55.23     3.81   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.39    39.90     3.35    54.94     4.04    -1.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.81    42.18    -6.19    53.65     4.04   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.60    34.58     1.15    50.38     3.88    -9.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.84R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.48    30.86    -1.48    47.16     3.84   -14.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.41R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.78    47.40    -1.42    48.24     4.14   -20.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.89R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.97    28.19    -1.05    45.42     3.81   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.52R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.50    48.72    -1.01    40.88     3.84   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.13R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.26     4.57   -17.51    27.24     3.60   -53.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.37  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.15    26.37   -14.50    22.19     3.73   -47.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.63  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.54    84.41    11.04    82.74     4.05    26.04    16.24    66.44    99.85    74.72P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.77    85.84     8.35    86.26     4.26    28.28    49.22    88.05    99.99    91.37P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.54    64.54     1.40    83.78     4.07    27.06    23.61    74.58    99.88    82.72P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.92    80.46     0.72    79.11     3.97    12.62     2.94    25.88    98.36    43.25P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       8.05    81.18    15.35    80.14     4.22    28.49     7.93    42.44    99.36    56.86P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.97    45.74     3.06    71.92     4.02    17.39     0.03     1.34    70.41    20.42P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.43    51.63     4.01    71.00     4.02    14.96     0.03     0.95    61.35    15.47P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.37    79.53     7.26    69.20     3.98     5.80     0.01     0.23    36.33     6.69P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.46    39.90    -4.40    67.60     3.99     5.90     0.00     0.07    25.08     6.51P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.01    67.13    10.14    61.06     3.94     0.95     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.73    38.31    -0.62    63.25     4.20     3.83     0.00     0.00     5.64     1.31P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.76    47.19     7.01    60.41     3.95     4.01     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.89    58.92     1.95    57.98     3.91    -7.95     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.64    39.00    -9.42    60.13     4.24    -9.73     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.03    50.57    -2.89    58.05     4.13    -9.10     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.21    56.25     1.73    55.45     3.92   -10.53     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.19    50.11     3.19    52.84     4.12   -12.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.69    34.62    -9.25    53.82     3.99   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.85    19.80    -9.91    52.61     3.97   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.57    12.94   -11.45    53.22     4.05   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.17     5.90   -11.05    52.73     4.30    -5.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.57    39.38     2.16    45.33     3.76   -19.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.43R    1.43  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.08    24.70    -5.86    41.30     3.80   -29.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.06R   12.06  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.60     1.36   -12.52    33.91     4.14   -28.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.47R   86.47  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.88    83.06    13.52    84.33     4.03    31.98    71.87    99.83    78.43P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.23    74.54     3.38    79.39     4.05    18.54    15.59    94.30    32.15P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.61    27.34    -1.81    77.31     3.76    28.04     7.04    90.89    35.72P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.93    33.71    -2.85    75.55     4.04    21.80     3.64    79.01    26.17P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.44    72.02     9.34    74.37     4.02    18.03     1.41    68.23    13.93P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.58    82.58     2.68    69.19     3.92    -0.54     0.06    15.49     2.32P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.56    83.76     4.76    65.65     3.44    -6.02     0.00     2.44     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.45    35.77     1.63    68.58     3.77    14.79     0.01    14.18     3.37P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.58    52.51     4.76    65.97     3.50     8.03     0.00     2.86     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.82    82.14     4.32    64.32     3.72    -7.59     0.00     1.31     0.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.41    52.06     1.67    70.13     4.55    11.56     0.38    26.71     6.15P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.11    54.91    -1.12    64.86     3.83    -0.14     0.00     1.88     0.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.02    41.85     2.57    64.78     3.81     7.72     0.00     2.28     0.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.94    38.00     3.56    62.09     3.78     6.67     0.00     0.37     0.07P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.93    66.72     4.50    59.49     4.29    -8.67     0.00     0.22     0.03P    1.40R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       0.99    55.05     0.30    54.57     3.44   -13.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.60R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.23    51.47    -4.01    56.80     3.97   -14.27     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.26R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.43    27.92    -2.43    55.35     3.96    -5.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.12R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.21    22.76    -8.08    54.49     3.75   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.76R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.80    13.92    -6.30    55.29     3.99    -2.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.01R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.15    26.21   -12.44    49.84     3.40   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.28R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.44    44.68     0.97    49.94     3.67   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.52R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.02    11.66   -14.69    51.99     4.08   -15.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.97R    0.03  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.78    22.00    -4.23    32.47     3.31   -41.04     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.93