Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 30 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.14    99.77     3.08   101.43     3.50    56.82   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.61    19.82    -5.18    80.20     3.52    54.22     0.00    98.76    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.63    67.59    15.34    68.28     4.01    34.27     0.00     1.17    77.72    92.68    99.46     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.23    38.53    -3.86    63.12     3.85    16.24     0.00     0.06    12.49    53.62    91.03     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.83    30.79     0.64    61.28     3.87    19.95     0.00     0.01     7.57    35.29    83.57     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.24    66.46     7.67    56.35     4.00     8.48     0.00     0.00     0.50     5.08    33.78     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.48    83.93     9.54    55.20     4.18     3.07     0.00     0.00     0.64     3.73    23.38     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.55    13.55    -7.86    56.86     4.05    12.33     0.00     0.00     0.83     7.06    42.91     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.17    25.29    -5.95    54.86     4.12     5.46     0.00     0.00     0.28     2.41    21.93     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.70    77.83     4.03    49.28     3.71    -9.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.18     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.19    61.59    -1.40    48.94     3.78    -9.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.22     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.67    46.98    -4.46    49.26     3.91    -9.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.45     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.59    64.24    -5.17    45.14     3.72   -19.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.08R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.08    66.64    -1.16    43.70     3.80   -21.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.34R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.77    36.39     4.55    37.77     3.63   -13.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.63R    1.68  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.03    21.81    -2.41    38.51     3.92   -16.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.53R    1.98  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.55    27.80    -3.19    36.89     3.75   -21.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.14R    4.01  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.64    27.35    -3.56    35.94     3.67   -24.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.78R    5.33  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.51    43.19     0.59    33.99     3.91   -30.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.83R   16.27  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.97    29.97    -1.24    29.49     3.65   -34.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.63R   70.70  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.81    80.22     7.90    86.85     3.95    31.30    51.39    93.89   100.00    95.79P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.71    65.24     3.34    86.21     4.00    33.01    46.48    91.46   100.00    94.38P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.29    71.34     2.14    76.99     4.04    14.97     1.32     7.75    95.39    29.96P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -5.08    28.65     9.42    75.83     3.99    36.25     0.72     5.71    93.57    38.09P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.16    74.83     5.23    73.40     4.04    11.58     0.08     1.11    78.62    17.07P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       3.03    62.95     1.65    68.76     4.05     5.57     0.00     0.05    35.17     6.80P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.04    66.94    -2.13    67.51     4.06    -1.71     0.00     0.01    22.35     3.73P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.17    71.94     6.14    66.87     4.05     4.84     0.00     0.01    19.86     3.32P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.28    48.77    -3.13    66.89     4.07     2.87     0.00     0.01    20.35     4.20P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.26    51.36     4.12    65.60     4.05     7.38     0.00     0.00    14.23     2.64P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.21    51.16    -2.05    65.79     4.02     1.83     0.00     0.00    13.23     2.67P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.12    33.14    -6.54    62.73     4.00    -0.92     0.00     0.00     3.88     0.81P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.05    67.37     4.26    61.62     4.04    -5.35     0.00     0.00     1.61     0.24P    0.08R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4      -0.04    50.41     7.60    60.10     3.99     3.71     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.15P    0.15R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.58    43.40    -1.41    59.64     4.00    -4.02     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.11P    0.24R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.44    56.76    -1.13    58.14     3.96   -10.96     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    1.16R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.68    23.69    -3.06    53.48     3.95    -7.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.18R    0.53  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.34    45.31    -2.00    52.71     3.93   -15.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   16.61R    1.02  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.97    16.16    -9.67    53.33     3.99    -9.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.30R    0.49  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.32    35.91    -3.13    52.46     3.99   -13.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.38R    1.34  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.58    31.20    -5.29    52.42     3.97   -15.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.09R    1.46  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.49    31.98     0.59    49.33     3.90   -13.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.07R    4.84  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.16    37.43    -7.00    44.96     3.98   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.43R   41.28  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.56    20.58    -5.83    43.87     3.90   -23.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.32R   49.05  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.68    95.79     9.30    82.12     4.26    20.11    55.76    75.34    98.18    79.82P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.04    58.71     4.43    77.95     3.98    28.81    16.99    41.55    89.53    54.81P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.86    66.72    11.41    75.72     3.95    29.19     8.01    22.26    79.21    36.07P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.48    51.97    -0.67    74.42     3.97    20.10     3.73    12.21    65.57    26.63P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.08    75.43     4.16    74.95     3.95    17.09     4.46    13.92    69.41    25.97P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.18    44.55     8.52    75.93     3.84    35.30     8.49    24.32    82.90    41.16P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.68    33.68    -4.05    72.48     3.74    19.74     0.93     4.28    46.99    17.42P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.92    93.23     5.84    72.02     4.21     4.04     1.28     4.57    38.24     9.25P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.19    39.62     3.42    69.59     4.18    20.84     0.34     1.51    23.53     7.40P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.37    35.75     1.08    66.06     3.62    14.80     0.00     0.01     3.73     0.96P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.67    58.01     5.70    64.81     3.98    10.18     0.00     0.02     2.50     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.80    37.80    -4.09    60.57     4.02     0.38     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.86    33.13    -0.64    56.71     3.91     0.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.83    54.34    -5.69    55.24     3.79   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.46    39.66     3.29    54.93     4.01    -1.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.65    42.99    -5.99    53.65     4.03   -12.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.50    34.70     1.31    50.35     3.87    -9.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.83R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.77    29.71    -1.93    47.23     3.83   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.04R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.74    47.38    -1.35    48.27     4.12   -20.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.98R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.98    28.40    -1.09    45.43     3.82   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.93R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.55    48.69    -1.10    40.92     3.86   -32.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.02R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.14     4.64   -17.30    27.24     3.61   -53.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.78  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.19    26.31   -14.55    22.19     3.75   -47.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.22  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.13    83.53    10.38    82.88     4.03    26.26    16.94    67.38    99.86    75.72P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.57    85.28     8.05    86.30     4.28    28.37    48.91    88.14    99.99    91.35P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.62    64.77     1.58    83.78     4.07    27.06    23.07    74.43    99.93    82.52P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.99    80.60     0.88    79.10     3.99    12.58     2.92    25.31    98.33    43.25P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.96    81.17    15.17    80.19     4.21    28.56     8.10    42.17    99.42    56.81P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.66    47.10     3.43    71.83     4.05    17.26     0.04     1.37    69.60    19.88P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.52    52.31     4.15    71.00     4.03    14.93     0.03     0.90    61.54    15.39P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.24    78.98     7.06    69.21     3.98     5.85     0.00     0.23    36.72     6.65P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.34    40.31    -4.21    67.55     4.00     5.81     0.00     0.06    25.26     6.58P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.22    68.12    10.49    61.03     3.94     0.91     0.00     0.00     1.31     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.53    39.28    -0.30    63.15     4.20     3.69     0.00     0.00     5.34     1.16P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.79    47.39     6.96    60.41     3.95     4.01     0.00     0.00     1.12     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.95    59.03     2.06    57.92     3.92    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.74    38.68    -9.55    60.17     4.28    -9.68     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.06    50.71    -2.79    57.99     4.09    -9.19     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.11    55.80     1.55    55.49     3.91   -10.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.24    49.76     3.11    52.86     4.11   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.55    35.27    -9.03    53.84     3.98   -17.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.96    19.32   -10.09    52.60     3.99   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.68    12.69   -11.60    53.26     4.04   -10.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.16     5.74   -11.04    52.77     4.29    -5.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.03R    0.03  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.38    39.98     2.41    45.25     3.74   -19.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.54R    1.54  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.04    24.72    -5.75    41.29     3.78   -29.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.35R   12.35  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.86     1.42   -12.91    33.98     4.14   -28.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.05R   86.05  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.71    82.35    13.28    84.39     4.04    32.05    72.52    99.78    79.02P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.30    74.52     3.49    79.37     4.06    18.51    15.31    94.22    32.09P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.46    28.40    -1.54    77.29     3.77    28.01     6.80    90.78    35.74P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.50    35.55    -2.20    75.50     4.05    21.70     3.61    78.65    25.51P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.39    72.14     9.23    74.38     4.04    18.05     1.36    68.52    13.93P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.56    82.55     2.63    69.15     3.95    -0.55     0.05    15.51     2.31P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.45    83.38     4.62    65.64     3.43    -6.03     0.00     2.30     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.62    34.90     1.39    68.61     3.78    14.84     0.01    14.72     3.52P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.61    52.55     4.82    65.98     3.52     8.06     0.00     2.94     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.76    81.97     4.22    64.34     3.73    -7.58     0.00     1.27     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.63    52.83     1.95    70.06     4.54    11.45     0.34    26.43     6.09P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.26    55.84    -0.85    64.85     3.83    -0.15     0.00     1.96     0.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.22    41.19     2.27    64.80     3.80     7.78     0.00     2.30     0.39P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.81    38.49     3.74    62.09     3.77     6.66     0.00     0.39     0.09P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.91    66.67     4.41    59.49     4.27    -8.66     0.00     0.22     0.02P    1.42R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       0.98    54.89     0.33    54.55     3.44   -13.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.56R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.29    52.09    -3.90    56.81     3.96   -14.27     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.29R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.25    28.80    -2.18    55.35     3.93    -5.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.35    22.08    -8.34    54.55     3.77   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.41R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.10    13.55    -6.71    55.31     3.97    -2.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.87R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.24    25.79   -12.66    49.85     3.42   -23.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.55R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.51    44.04     0.89    49.95     3.68   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.43R    0.01  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.98    11.77   -14.61    51.99     4.11   -15.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.39R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.77    22.15    -4.29    32.46     3.30   -41.07     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95