Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 29 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.04    99.78     2.95   101.46     3.51    56.88   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.72    19.45    -5.39    80.20     3.53    54.21     0.00    98.76    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.47    66.91    15.09    68.37     4.00    34.41     0.00     1.17    77.96    93.12    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.24    38.50    -3.87    63.12     3.83    16.28     0.00     0.07    12.26    53.40    91.30     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.81    31.03     0.73    61.31     3.88    20.01     0.00     0.00     7.65    35.43    84.20     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.18    66.25     7.55    56.36     4.03     8.52     0.00     0.00     0.50     5.07    34.14     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.68    84.61     9.79    55.10     4.16     2.94     0.00     0.00     0.53     3.46    22.53     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.53    13.47    -7.82    56.86     4.03    12.30     0.00     0.00     0.84     6.97    42.64     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.05    25.52    -5.73    54.82     4.13     5.41     0.00     0.00     0.29     2.40    21.77     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.54    76.96     3.80    49.32     3.71    -9.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.16     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.30    62.30    -1.14    48.89     3.78    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.18     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.68    47.38    -4.46    49.27     3.90    -9.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.49     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.62    64.67    -5.10    45.17     3.73   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.94R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.16    67.13    -0.97    43.69     3.82   -21.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.48R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.78    35.96     4.58    37.76     3.63   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.55R    1.69  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.10    21.31    -2.58    38.55     3.93   -16.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.22R    2.03  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.41    28.12    -3.04    36.88     3.73   -21.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.94R    4.13  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.62    27.54    -3.49    35.92     3.66   -24.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.24R    5.05  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.46    43.46     0.72    33.95     3.91   -30.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.11R   16.66  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.14    29.20    -1.61    29.52     3.63   -34.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.48R   70.41  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.82    80.07     7.85    86.86     3.93    31.28    50.83    94.03   100.00    95.86P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.55    64.51     3.07    86.29     4.01    33.14    47.06    91.74    99.99    94.67P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.24    70.85     2.09    77.03     4.04    15.01     1.40     7.75    95.22    29.75P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.87    29.72     9.75    75.71     3.99    36.05     0.63     5.36    93.23    37.33P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.31    75.34     5.37    73.38     4.03    11.56     0.08     1.04    78.52    17.15P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.82    62.25     1.34    68.88     4.07     5.75     0.00     0.05    36.54     7.26P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.07    66.95    -2.08    67.44     4.05    -1.79     0.00     0.00    22.00     3.61P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.07    71.46     6.03    66.84     4.06     4.80     0.00     0.01    19.66     3.48P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.20    49.34    -3.07    66.91     4.07     2.91     0.00     0.01    20.16     4.27P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.34    51.76     4.23    65.54     4.06     7.30     0.00     0.01    14.08     2.74P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.14    50.88    -2.14    65.88     4.00     1.95     0.00     0.00    13.33     2.54P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.90    34.22    -6.20    62.69     4.01    -1.00     0.00     0.00     3.82     0.80P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.13    67.78     4.37    61.55     4.02    -5.42     0.00     0.00     1.61     0.21P    0.05R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.14    51.11     7.86    60.09     4.01     3.71     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.16P    0.17R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.61    43.45    -1.40    59.59     4.02    -4.10     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.15P    0.28R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.24    56.02    -1.42    58.21     4.00   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    1.25R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.87    23.07    -3.35    53.47     3.94    -7.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    10.08R    0.53  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.31    45.10    -1.96    52.69     3.95   -15.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.13R    1.05  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.81    16.57    -9.43    53.28     3.99    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   11.69R    0.53  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.46    35.42    -3.32    52.57     3.99   -13.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.44R    1.26  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.50    31.83    -5.15    52.38     3.99   -15.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.41R    1.49  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.58    31.54     0.47    49.37     3.90   -13.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.91R    4.98  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.05    37.62    -6.77    44.96     3.96   -32.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.63R   41.34  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.79    20.04    -6.15    43.92     3.92   -23.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.93R   48.81  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.65    95.86     9.27    82.10     4.25    20.08    55.68    75.33    98.09    79.79P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.04    59.13     4.35    77.94     3.99    28.81    17.16    41.74    89.58    54.85P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.86    67.09    11.41    75.77     3.96    29.27     7.94    22.42    79.76    36.14P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.56    52.23    -0.57    74.38     3.96    20.05     3.49    11.76    65.54    26.20P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.05    75.46     4.11    74.94     3.95    17.06     4.48    14.07    69.50    26.24P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.27    44.05     8.34    75.95     3.84    35.36     8.56    24.12    83.33    41.54P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.51    34.47    -3.80    72.44     3.75    19.67     0.97     4.41    46.48    17.17P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.04    93.45     6.06    72.02     4.23     4.02     1.40     4.63    37.80     9.16P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.26    39.63     3.34    69.63     4.17    20.91     0.31     1.50    23.77     7.44P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.09    36.60     1.50    66.00     3.62    14.68     0.00     0.01     3.67     0.98P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.83    58.57     5.94    64.75     3.95    10.07     0.00     0.01     2.28     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.91    37.14    -4.28    60.57     4.03     0.37     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -4.04    32.26    -0.86    56.74     3.90     0.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.80    54.42    -5.70    55.24     3.81   -14.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.41    39.69     3.38    54.94     4.04    -1.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.81    42.00    -6.19    53.69     4.03   -12.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.51    34.86     1.26    50.37     3.86    -9.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.84R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.66    30.11    -1.81    47.20     3.83   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.02R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.67    47.62    -1.24    48.24     4.13   -20.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.12R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.96    28.07    -1.02    45.41     3.82   -15.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.77R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.50    48.98    -1.11    40.91     3.87   -32.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.05R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.36     4.61   -17.72    27.29     3.62   -53.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.61  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.27    26.18   -14.67    22.21     3.75   -47.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.39  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.26    84.00    10.63    82.82     4.05    26.17    16.61    66.79    99.80    75.03P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.82    85.89     8.40    86.26     4.28    28.29    48.79    87.84    99.99    91.03P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.57    64.53     1.55    83.78     4.06    27.06    23.41    74.64    99.93    82.77P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.83    80.17     0.60    79.12     4.00    12.64     2.94    25.36    98.20    43.28P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.79    80.55    14.95    80.25     4.22    28.63     8.19    42.84    99.43    57.57P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.80    46.38     3.27    71.86     4.04    17.27     0.03     1.26    69.99    19.62P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.52    52.37     4.09    70.97     4.03    14.90     0.03     1.01    60.95    15.22P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.31    79.19     7.12    69.18     3.97     5.81     0.01     0.19    36.73     6.58P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.52    39.61    -4.49    67.58     4.02     5.88     0.00     0.07    25.47     6.91P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.19    68.12    10.44    61.03     3.93     0.89     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.64    38.80    -0.42    63.25     4.20     3.80     0.00     0.01     5.63     1.26P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.57    48.00     7.32    60.36     3.93     3.95     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.99    59.42     2.11    57.90     3.90    -8.05     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.67    38.95    -9.46    60.12     4.25    -9.76     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.14    49.64    -3.07    58.08     4.12    -9.07     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.11    55.80     1.55    55.47     3.91   -10.50     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.33    49.52     2.98    52.90     4.11   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.55    35.30    -9.12    53.84     3.98   -17.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -8.07    19.09   -10.24    52.65     3.97   -14.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.40    13.21   -11.20    53.18     4.06   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.06     5.96   -10.88    52.72     4.30    -5.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.50    39.56     2.27    45.29     3.75   -19.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.44R    1.44  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -5.86    25.36    -5.53    41.21     3.79   -29.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.64R   12.64  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.85     1.29   -12.87    34.00     4.14   -28.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.87R   85.87  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.72    82.67    13.26    84.40     4.04    32.06    72.49    99.76    78.99P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.19    73.98     3.28    79.44     4.08    18.59    15.52    94.28    32.42P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.52    27.74    -1.64    77.28     3.78    28.02     6.70    90.56    35.50P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.65    34.61    -2.40    75.53     4.02    21.75     3.54    78.89    25.53P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.14    70.99     8.91    74.45     4.02    18.15     1.32    68.81    14.14P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.47    82.31     2.51    69.17     3.93    -0.53     0.06    15.37     2.28P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.54    83.78     4.76    65.61     3.42    -6.08     0.00     2.25     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.61    35.17     1.36    68.67     3.76    14.91     0.01    14.60     3.37P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.66    52.99     4.90    65.95     3.52     8.01     0.00     2.95     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.92    82.50     4.39    64.34     3.72    -7.56     0.00     1.24     0.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.36    51.90     1.64    70.13     4.53    11.54     0.37    26.62     5.97P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.17    55.24    -0.95    64.82     3.82    -0.18     0.00     1.80     0.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.09    41.57     2.41    64.80     3.81     7.75     0.00     2.17     0.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.95    37.86     3.53    62.10     3.77     6.68     0.00     0.43     0.10P    0.07R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.96    66.94     4.52    59.50     4.29    -8.64     0.00     0.24     0.03P    1.47R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.10    55.53     0.43    54.55     3.46   -13.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.73R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.39    52.33    -3.74    56.75     3.96   -14.36     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.23R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.29    28.40    -2.21    55.31     3.96    -5.44     0.00     0.01     0.00P    8.14R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.14    22.73    -8.03    54.50     3.75   -10.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.36R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.94    13.76    -6.44    55.29     4.00    -2.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.86R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.18    25.95   -12.49    49.80     3.42   -23.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.65R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.47    44.53     0.95    49.93     3.67   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.50R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.02    11.83   -14.71    51.97     4.08   -15.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.98R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.82    21.89    -4.22    32.48     3.31   -41.04     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95