Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 28 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.05    99.78     2.96   101.44     3.50    56.85   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.69    19.44    -5.31    80.23     3.51    54.23     0.00    98.76    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.52    67.38    15.19    68.36     3.99    34.42     0.00     1.18    78.28    93.23    99.52     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.01    39.79    -3.53    63.04     3.84    16.13     0.00     0.05    11.80    52.63    90.75     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.88    30.64     0.53    61.29     3.89    20.00     0.00     0.00     7.67    35.69    83.74     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.16    66.19     7.53    56.39     4.02     8.55     0.00     0.00     0.53     5.11    34.64     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.60    84.55     9.74    55.16     4.17     3.01     0.00     0.00     0.58     3.69    23.14     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.53    13.34    -7.80    56.83     4.05    12.26     0.00     0.00     0.89     7.00    42.37     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.25    24.80    -6.08    54.89     4.13     5.48     0.00     0.00     0.28     2.53    22.02     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.61    77.25     3.90    49.32     3.70    -9.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.00     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.29    62.37    -1.21    48.89     3.76    -9.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.18     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.59    47.45    -4.36    49.28     3.93    -9.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.55     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.70    64.76    -5.02    45.13     3.71   -19.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.06R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.08    66.71    -1.13    43.66     3.81   -21.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.50R    0.06  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.75    36.30     4.59    37.75     3.64   -13.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.61R    1.78  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.13    21.15    -2.60    38.57     3.93   -16.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.98R    1.96  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.52    27.87    -3.18    36.90     3.75   -21.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.96R    3.96  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.57    27.91    -3.46    35.92     3.67   -24.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.05R    5.25  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.45    43.49     0.78    33.94     3.90   -30.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.38R   16.54  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.11    29.48    -1.52    29.51     3.65   -34.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.43R   70.44  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.77    80.19     7.79    86.85     3.95    31.25    51.46    93.92   100.00    95.91P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.72    65.19     3.37    86.18     4.01    33.00    46.41    91.41   100.00    94.33P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.44    71.62     2.42    77.00     4.02    14.97     1.31     7.78    95.34    29.75P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.79    30.25     9.80    75.73     4.01    36.10     0.74     5.76    93.15    37.49P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.15    74.83     5.18    73.41     4.04    11.59     0.07     1.04    78.97    17.11P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.91    62.50     1.50    68.81     4.05     5.65     0.00     0.04    35.80     7.05P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.17    67.73    -1.95    67.45     4.03    -1.80     0.00     0.02    21.83     3.88P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.35    72.37     6.41    66.79     4.06     4.71     0.00     0.00    19.68     3.43P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.12    49.94    -3.00    66.87     4.07     2.83     0.00     0.01    19.99     4.18P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.38    51.92     4.26    65.56     4.09     7.33     0.00     0.01    14.39     2.71P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.01    50.06    -2.30    65.89     4.03     1.98     0.00     0.00    13.55     2.78P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.01    33.49    -6.37    62.73     4.01    -0.91     0.00     0.00     3.86     0.84P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       3.98    67.19     4.14    61.60     4.00    -5.35     0.00     0.00     1.62     0.21P    0.05R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.10    50.84     7.83    60.06     4.00     3.67     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.18P    0.20R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.73    43.05    -1.60    59.66     4.01    -3.99     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.15P    0.24R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.28    56.04    -1.32    58.14     3.95   -10.99     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    1.16R    0.00  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.84    23.04    -3.34    53.50     3.95    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    9.97R    0.51  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.46    44.35    -2.18    52.74     3.96   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   17.00R    1.01  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.89    16.44    -9.52    53.30     3.97    -9.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.66R    0.58  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.34    36.10    -3.13    52.48     3.97   -13.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.08R    1.31  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.70    31.16    -5.46    52.52     4.01   -15.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.59R    1.46  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.84    30.55     0.10    49.40     3.93   -13.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.72R    4.79  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.76    38.82    -6.34    44.84     3.93   -32.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.44R   42.38  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.83    19.91    -6.29    43.94     3.89   -23.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.88R   47.96  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.63    95.77     9.25    82.16     4.25    20.16    56.23    75.65    98.29    80.10P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.05    58.60     4.38    77.98     3.99    28.83    17.53    42.17    89.72    55.25P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.78    66.44    11.29    75.72     3.95    29.17     7.82    22.18    79.04    35.71P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.34    51.27    -0.92    74.44     3.96    20.18     3.62    12.18    65.96    26.93P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.18    75.88     4.32    74.89     3.93    17.02     4.16    13.49    68.74    25.31P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.13    44.66     8.58    75.90     3.83    35.28     8.00    23.68    82.79    40.52P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.69    33.62    -4.09    72.52     3.72    19.76     0.95     4.44    47.21    17.91P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.06    93.65     6.09    72.05     4.22     4.06     1.38     4.61    38.14     9.29P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.24    39.76     3.32    69.63     4.19    20.92     0.31     1.55    23.81     7.45P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.19    35.95     1.34    66.04     3.61    14.75     0.00     0.01     3.64     0.98P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.91    59.11     6.03    64.75     3.97    10.07     0.01     0.03     2.48     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.92    37.34    -4.29    60.55     4.04     0.35     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.95    32.68    -0.73    56.76     3.90     0.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.75    53.92    -5.78    55.26     3.80   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.34    40.00     3.50    54.91     4.03    -1.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.72    42.67    -6.05    53.64     4.03   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.64    34.44     1.15    50.36     3.86    -9.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.79R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.65    29.98    -1.74    47.22     3.83   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.13R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.71    47.59    -1.27    48.22     4.13   -20.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.19R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.91    28.69    -0.94    45.39     3.81   -15.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.87R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.59    48.38    -1.22    40.90     3.89   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.77R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.16     4.48   -17.38    27.27     3.60   -53.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.63  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.32    25.89   -14.82    22.22     3.77   -47.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.37  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.30    84.10    10.64    82.78     4.05    26.12    16.54    66.44    99.86    74.96P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.90    86.27     8.55    86.21     4.27    28.24    48.75    87.78   100.00    91.02P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.67    65.00     1.62    83.76     4.07    27.03    23.38    74.43    99.91    82.33P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.71    79.69     0.45    79.16     4.00    12.68     3.05    26.00    98.33    43.75P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.88    81.16    15.10    80.21     4.21    28.59     8.24    42.84    99.40    57.29P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.91    45.96     3.14    71.89     4.03    17.31     0.02     1.38    70.08    20.10P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.53    52.23     4.13    70.98     4.03    14.90     0.02     0.87    61.03    15.43P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.29    79.14     7.12    69.22     3.97     5.84     0.00     0.20    36.65     6.57P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.64    39.39    -4.64    67.61     3.99     5.91     0.00     0.07    25.38     6.64P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.18    67.64    10.42    61.02     3.91     0.89     0.00     0.00     1.19     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.56    39.21    -0.34    63.18     4.18     3.71     0.00     0.00     5.59     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.73    47.43     7.05    60.41     3.95     4.01     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.07    59.69     2.22    57.93     3.88    -8.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.63    39.12    -9.39    60.16     4.25    -9.67     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.03    50.66    -2.87    58.05     4.12    -9.12     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.02    55.27     1.41    55.54     3.92   -10.43     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.18    49.94     3.13    52.84     4.14   -12.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.54    35.10    -9.03    53.80     3.98   -17.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.74    20.08    -9.76    52.55     3.95   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.64    12.84   -11.56    53.25     4.02   -10.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.29     5.43   -11.20    52.78     4.29    -5.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.48    39.57     2.33    45.26     3.74   -19.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.48R    1.48  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.00    24.80    -5.71    41.27     3.79   -29.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.54R   12.54  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.81     1.34   -12.81    34.01     4.14   -28.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.92R   85.92  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.66    82.40    13.15    84.38     4.03    32.04    72.37    99.76    78.81P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.22    74.61     3.37    79.39     4.06    18.55    15.34    94.38    32.23P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.62    27.51    -1.84    77.29     3.77    28.00     6.89    90.62    35.79P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.68    34.52    -2.46    75.50     4.07    21.74     3.71    78.46    25.23P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.03    70.54     8.78    74.46     4.01    18.14     1.26    69.29    14.39P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.44    82.37     2.48    69.12     3.93    -0.57     0.06    15.26     2.33P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.60    83.95     4.83    65.63     3.42    -6.07     0.00     2.20     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.66    34.81     1.31    68.64     3.76    14.87     0.01    14.46     3.48P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.52    52.46     4.65    65.99     3.51     8.08     0.00     2.89     0.52P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       9.12    82.75     4.71    64.29     3.71    -7.66     0.00     1.28     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.34    51.70     1.59    70.15     4.52    11.59     0.36    26.80     6.05P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.37    56.13    -0.65    64.77     3.80    -0.26     0.00     1.81     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.06    41.71     2.49    64.79     3.83     7.74     0.00     2.15     0.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.93    38.09     3.59    62.12     3.77     6.71     0.00     0.39     0.04P    0.07R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.86    66.13     4.34    59.51     4.30    -8.61     0.00     0.24     0.04P    1.49R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.06    55.48     0.41    54.55     3.45   -13.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.53R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.34    52.24    -3.80    56.77     3.99   -14.35     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.36R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.21    28.70    -2.17    55.38     3.94    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.74R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.21    22.43    -8.13    54.50     3.78   -10.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.54R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.99    13.78    -6.55    55.31     4.00    -2.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.86R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.21    25.90   -12.55    49.86     3.42   -23.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.90R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.29    45.16     1.27    49.89     3.68   -17.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.29R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.00    11.66   -14.62    51.99     4.07   -15.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.23R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.75    22.37    -4.23    32.47     3.32   -41.05     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.93