Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 27 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.10    99.78     3.09   101.48     3.50    56.90   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.71    19.66    -5.37    80.22     3.52    54.20     0.00    98.76    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.62    67.55    15.33    68.33     4.03    34.34     0.00     1.17    77.58    92.79    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.23    38.40    -3.85    63.13     3.85    16.25     0.00     0.06    12.33    53.34    90.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.82    30.80     0.64    61.33     3.89    20.02     0.00     0.01     7.87    35.50    83.97     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.10    65.84     7.49    56.35     4.03     8.52     0.00     0.00     0.49     5.12    34.04     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.47    83.88     9.51    55.22     4.15     3.07     0.00     0.00     0.60     3.68    23.47     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.45    13.66    -7.71    56.84     4.04    12.28     0.00     0.00     0.89     7.07    42.38     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.09    25.59    -5.83    54.82     4.14     5.44     0.00     0.00     0.28     2.39    21.82     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.61    77.18     3.95    49.31     3.71    -9.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.19     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.37    62.70    -1.07    48.87     3.77    -9.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.13     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.51    47.98    -4.22    49.22     3.89    -9.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.43     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.56    64.32    -5.18    45.15     3.71   -19.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.99R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       2.99    66.31    -1.27    43.70     3.83   -21.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.41R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.82    36.18     4.48    37.74     3.63   -13.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.73R    1.64  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.10    21.38    -2.57    38.55     3.93   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.95R    2.11  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.42    28.24    -3.03    36.86     3.76   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.97R    4.08  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.49    28.30    -3.36    35.89     3.66   -24.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.30R    5.17  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.47    43.10     0.65    33.95     3.88   -30.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.19R   16.66  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.19    28.90    -1.68    29.53     3.63   -34.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.42R   70.30  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.80    79.99     7.82    86.87     3.96    31.28    51.48    93.91   100.00    95.77P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.61    64.97     3.18    86.23     4.01    33.07    46.41    91.51   100.00    94.46P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.52    71.95     2.54    76.92     4.05    14.88     1.29     7.74    95.06    29.75P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.88    29.53     9.73    75.76     3.99    36.14     0.71     5.65    93.40    37.83P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.28    75.32     5.39    73.39     4.05    11.55     0.10     1.09    78.57    16.91P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.76    61.89     1.28    68.80     4.05     5.65     0.00     0.05    35.70     7.09P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.03    66.89    -2.16    67.48     4.05    -1.76     0.00     0.01    22.20     4.03P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.11    71.68     6.10    66.88     4.07     4.87     0.00     0.01    20.34     3.44P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.07    49.77    -2.90    66.84     4.08     2.83     0.00     0.01    19.97     4.17P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.38    51.91     4.27    65.51     4.08     7.26     0.00     0.01    14.18     2.60P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1      -0.01    49.95    -2.39    65.85     4.00     1.90     0.00     0.00    13.10     2.53P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.11    33.14    -6.58    62.76     4.02    -0.87     0.00     0.00     3.98     0.91P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.07    67.31     4.28    61.59     4.02    -5.38     0.00     0.00     1.66     0.25P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.27    51.62     8.03    60.04     4.01     3.62     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.15P    0.15R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.79    42.71    -1.63    59.68     3.99    -3.98     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.10P    0.22R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.14    55.52    -1.52    58.22     3.99   -10.86     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    1.21R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.67    23.56    -3.09    53.43     3.93    -7.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.22R    0.51  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.51    44.13    -2.26    52.71     3.94   -15.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.74R    1.08  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.89    16.26    -9.56    53.30     3.98    -9.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.65R    0.59  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.37    36.02    -3.21    52.52     3.98   -13.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.79R    1.34  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.54    31.61    -5.19    52.41     3.99   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.39R    1.56  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.54    31.56     0.59    49.40     3.91   -13.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.56R    4.71  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.04    37.87    -6.88    44.97     3.94   -32.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.87R   41.03  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.58    20.78    -5.88    43.91     3.89   -23.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.12R   49.16  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.72    95.75     9.37    82.10     4.25    20.07    55.33    75.03    98.18    79.47P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.93    58.34     4.16    78.02     3.99    28.89    17.62    42.41    89.85    55.58P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.72    66.03    11.21    75.77     3.97    29.21     8.30    22.44    79.39    36.13P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.60    52.59    -0.48    74.37     3.97    20.04     3.64    11.97    65.00    26.22P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.09    75.52     4.17    74.93     3.92    17.06     4.12    13.76    69.30    25.76P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.26    44.08     8.36    75.92     3.83    35.35     8.39    23.84    83.23    41.11P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.65    33.59    -4.00    72.47     3.73    19.71     0.85     4.25    46.65    17.49P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.88    93.21     5.82    72.06     4.25     4.12     1.46     4.75    38.49     9.48P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.14    40.20     3.48    69.60     4.17    20.86     0.28     1.53    23.71     7.30P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.47    35.13     0.92    66.12     3.61    14.85     0.00     0.01     3.80     0.98P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       2.09    59.55     6.32    64.72     3.95    10.02     0.00     0.02     2.23     0.42P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.81    37.55    -4.09    60.59     4.04     0.37     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.89    33.03    -0.65    56.73     3.90     0.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.60    53.34    -5.96    55.28     3.79   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.25    40.53     3.59    54.89     4.02    -1.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.63    42.99    -5.94    53.65     4.04   -12.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.12R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.59    34.32     1.21    50.36     3.84    -9.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.83R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.75    29.65    -1.93    47.20     3.83   -14.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.99R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.71    47.59    -1.26    48.22     4.14   -20.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.20R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.93    28.75    -0.96    45.39     3.81   -15.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.77R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.51    48.74    -1.14    40.90     3.88   -32.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.02R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.27     4.48   -17.52    27.28     3.63   -53.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.36  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.25    25.85   -14.68    22.21     3.74   -47.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.64  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.29    84.01    10.66    82.80     4.04    26.13    16.74    66.56    99.85    75.00P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.81    85.96     8.40    86.21     4.27    28.21    48.63    87.78    99.99    91.14P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.73    65.17     1.64    83.77     4.08    27.05    23.48    74.76    99.90    82.85P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.69    79.57     0.37    79.17     4.00    12.72     2.91    25.95    98.23    44.03P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.97    81.00    15.19    80.18     4.24    28.55     8.19    42.43    99.40    56.78P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.77    46.48     3.35    71.88     4.02    17.31     0.04     1.32    69.93    19.93P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.56    52.52     4.18    70.98     4.00    14.91     0.01     0.93    61.16    15.28P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.31    79.41     7.13    69.23     3.99     5.88     0.00     0.23    37.24     6.71P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.42    40.24    -4.34    67.56     4.00     5.87     0.00     0.05    24.96     6.33P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.08    67.49    10.27    61.00     3.93     0.87     0.00     0.00     1.23     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.55    39.24    -0.31    63.19     4.18     3.73     0.00     0.00     5.65     1.25P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.81    46.94     6.93    60.38     3.96     3.98     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.97    59.54     2.02    57.92     3.89    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.61    39.08    -9.38    60.11     4.25    -9.73     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.06    50.96    -2.78    57.99     4.10    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.22    56.28     1.68    55.47     3.91   -10.51     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.19    50.03     3.19    52.82     4.07   -12.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.71    34.78    -9.23    53.86     3.96   -17.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.94    19.65    -9.99    52.64     3.99   -14.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.35    13.35   -11.12    53.17     4.02   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.33     5.62   -11.28    52.79     4.31    -5.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.61    39.10     2.09    45.36     3.75   -19.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.41R    1.41  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.03    24.76    -5.81    41.29     3.80   -29.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.27R   12.27  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.89     1.31   -12.88    34.00     4.14   -28.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.25R   86.25  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.61    82.26    13.06    84.41     4.03    32.10    72.60    99.77    79.19P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.35    74.73     3.59    79.36     4.09    18.50    15.38    94.15    31.94P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.34    28.34    -1.37    77.26     3.78    27.98     6.78    90.61    35.68P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.60    35.05    -2.31    75.50     4.06    21.69     3.55    78.77    25.47P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.25    71.42     9.00    74.35     4.01    18.02     1.30    68.53    13.90P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.36    82.05     2.30    69.21     3.95    -0.48     0.06    15.79     2.38P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.65    84.16     4.95    65.62     3.43    -6.08     0.00     2.30     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.77    34.13     1.13    68.67     3.75    14.94     0.01    15.13     3.70P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.62    52.78     4.83    65.97     3.51     8.03     0.00     2.87     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.98    82.47     4.47    64.33     3.72    -7.59     0.00     1.28     0.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.58    52.53     1.90    70.06     4.52    11.45     0.32    26.04     5.94P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.30    55.84    -0.76    64.79     3.82    -0.24     0.00     1.83     0.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.14    41.37     2.34    64.83     3.83     7.78     0.00     2.35     0.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.93    38.17     3.56    62.11     3.79     6.70     0.00     0.38     0.07P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.99    67.01     4.58    59.52     4.27    -8.60     0.00     0.20     0.03P    1.44R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.00    55.03     0.32    54.54     3.44   -13.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.50R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12      -0.05    50.38    -4.43    56.86     3.95   -14.18     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.10R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.31    28.26    -2.30    55.38     3.95    -5.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.84R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.30    22.16    -8.24    54.52     3.78   -10.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.48R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.11    13.53    -6.68    55.30     3.98    -2.90     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.73R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.25    25.63   -12.58    49.82     3.40   -23.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.68R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.31    44.98     1.23    49.91     3.65   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.83R    0.02  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.94    11.79   -14.60    51.96     4.06   -15.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.30R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.59    22.50    -3.99    32.46     3.32   -41.08     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95