Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 25 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.01    99.80     2.77   101.46     3.50    56.91   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.60    19.81    -5.08    80.21     3.50    54.14     0.00    98.73    99.95   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.46    66.99    15.08    68.35     4.01    34.39     0.00     1.21    78.07    93.06    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.18    38.72    -3.77    63.10     3.84    16.23     0.00     0.05    12.11    53.22    90.89     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.79    31.09     0.68    61.28     3.89    19.99     0.00     0.01     7.71    35.15    83.60     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.11    65.74     7.47    56.37     4.03     8.53     0.00     0.00     0.54     5.31    34.36     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.43    83.80     9.46    55.18     4.15     3.04     0.00     0.00     0.49     3.52    22.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.55    13.17    -7.87    56.88     4.03    12.32     0.00     0.00     0.84     7.14    42.70     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.16    25.35    -5.92    54.88     4.15     5.48     0.00     0.00     0.26     2.49    22.10     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.47    76.59     3.70    49.37     3.72    -9.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.21     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.34    62.66    -1.14    48.88     3.76    -9.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.18     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.51    48.08    -4.23    49.27     3.90    -9.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.45     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.47    63.66    -5.31    45.16     3.70   -19.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.97R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.07    66.82    -1.14    43.70     3.81   -21.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.34R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.66    36.99     4.72    37.71     3.63   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.96R    1.64  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.13    21.39    -2.64    38.61     3.92   -16.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.60R    1.92  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.50    27.67    -3.13    36.88     3.74   -21.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.50R    3.88  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.38    28.77    -3.14    35.86     3.67   -24.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.79R    5.13  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.37    43.62     0.79    33.92     3.89   -30.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.25R   16.44  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.01    29.75    -1.31    29.41     3.64   -34.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.55R   70.94  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.68    79.53     7.68    86.89     3.96    31.32    51.36    93.92   100.00    95.83P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.70    65.35     3.33    86.26     4.01    33.08    46.54    91.52   100.00    94.35P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.16    70.43     1.98    77.02     4.05    15.03     1.33     7.75    95.05    29.77P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.92    29.63     9.66    75.74     4.02    36.10     0.72     5.71    93.11    37.58P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.20    74.94     5.25    73.35     4.05    11.53     0.05     0.99    78.29    16.75P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.99    62.68     1.57    68.79     4.07     5.65     0.00     0.06    35.72     7.05P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.13    67.27    -2.06    67.48     4.05    -1.76     0.00     0.02    22.19     3.79P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.16    71.66     6.18    66.87     4.06     4.83     0.00     0.01    20.09     3.47P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.04    50.02    -2.81    66.83     4.09     2.80     0.00     0.01    19.87     4.32P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.36    51.85     4.26    65.58     4.08     7.35     0.00     0.01    14.54     2.91P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.08    50.59    -2.21    65.87     4.02     1.94     0.00     0.00    13.63     2.78P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.97    33.78    -6.34    62.72     4.03    -0.93     0.00     0.00     3.93     0.84P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.01    67.32     4.17    61.60     4.01    -5.39     0.00     0.00     1.69     0.23P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.13    51.00     7.86    60.06     3.99     3.65     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.15P    0.19R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.74    42.89    -1.62    59.67     4.01    -4.00     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.14P    0.21R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.27    56.31    -1.40    58.18     3.96   -10.92     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    1.20R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.89    23.03    -3.41    53.54     3.95    -7.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.73R    0.50  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.35    45.14    -2.00    52.65     3.94   -15.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.21R    1.06  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.72    16.61    -9.30    53.26     3.99    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.71R    0.57  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.35    36.08    -3.17    52.46     3.98   -13.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.93R    1.33  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.61    31.52    -5.28    52.44     4.00   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.93R    1.55  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.66    31.44     0.41    49.37     3.91   -13.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.82R    4.98  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.97    38.00    -6.70    44.94     3.92   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.90R   41.39  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.69    20.19    -6.05    43.92     3.88   -23.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.13R   48.62  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.87    95.97     9.55    82.04     4.23    20.01    55.57    75.16    98.17    79.69P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.93    58.41     4.19    77.98     3.99    28.84    17.46    42.07    89.76    55.28P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.78    66.31    11.26    75.74     3.96    29.23     7.97    22.42    79.37    36.18P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.55    52.36    -0.56    74.38     3.95    20.07     3.70    11.98    65.51    26.21P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.12    75.52     4.18    74.88     3.93    17.01     4.22    13.95    69.16    26.09P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.28    44.08     8.39    75.91     3.83    35.32     8.59    24.10    83.05    41.21P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.69    33.57    -4.01    72.44     3.71    19.67     0.90     4.19    46.81    17.23P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.04    93.50     6.06    72.04     4.20     4.08     1.33     4.61    38.17     9.20P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.14    40.21     3.54    69.57     4.19    20.84     0.27     1.49    23.59     7.32P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.58    34.88     0.81    66.13     3.62    14.89     0.00     0.01     3.83     1.06P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.87    58.66     5.96    64.79     3.93    10.12     0.00     0.03     2.36     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.93    37.32    -4.28    60.61     4.04     0.41     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.85    33.09    -0.56    56.75     3.91     0.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.82    54.26    -5.75    55.24     3.81   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.39    39.72     3.42    54.93     4.02    -1.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.64    42.85    -6.01    53.63     4.04   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.53    34.72     1.25    50.39     3.87    -9.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.83R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.57    30.30    -1.68    47.17     3.83   -14.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.16R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.77    47.41    -1.41    48.26     4.13   -20.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.19R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.95    28.29    -0.98    45.44     3.81   -15.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.63R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.68    48.06    -1.33    40.93     3.87   -32.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.95R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.32     4.38   -17.60    27.28     3.60   -53.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   20.37  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.09    26.67   -14.47    22.17     3.74   -47.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.63  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.32    83.94    10.72    82.79     4.05    26.13    16.73    66.52    99.85    74.76P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.89    86.29     8.57    86.20     4.25    28.22    48.83    87.87    99.98    91.17P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.76    65.41     1.81    83.72     4.07    26.98    23.17    74.16    99.92    82.54P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.60    79.49     0.26    79.19     3.98    12.75     2.98    26.29    98.47    43.94P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.94    80.97    15.19    80.20     4.22    28.59     8.24    42.58    99.34    56.98P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.77    46.56     3.31    71.84     4.02    17.25     0.03     1.34    69.77    19.76P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.29    51.49     3.79    71.04     3.99    15.01     0.03     0.96    61.77    15.71P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.25    78.89     7.06    69.23     3.98     5.88     0.00     0.22    36.94     6.80P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.43    40.16    -4.33    67.53     4.00     5.82     0.00     0.06    24.72     6.35P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.17    67.90    10.42    60.98     3.91     0.81     0.00     0.00     1.22     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.43    39.70    -0.17    63.17     4.21     3.69     0.00     0.00     5.65     1.28P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.72    47.29     7.06    60.37     3.94     3.96     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.02    59.45     2.12    57.94     3.89    -7.99     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.71    38.86    -9.48    60.15     4.27    -9.69     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.05    50.89    -2.82    58.02     4.08    -9.14     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.03    55.32     1.41    55.55     3.92   -10.44     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.29    49.47     3.00    52.88     4.11   -12.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.59    35.11    -9.15    53.82     3.98   -17.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.80    20.06    -9.83    52.55     3.98   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.64    12.79   -11.56    53.22     4.04   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.32     5.53   -11.24    52.83     4.29    -5.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.36    40.12     2.47    45.29     3.76   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.47R    1.47  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.14    24.18    -5.99    41.34     3.79   -29.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.78R   11.78  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.67     1.53   -12.60    33.92     4.15   -28.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.69R   86.69  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.66    82.55    13.17    84.35     4.04    31.99    72.25    99.76    78.84P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.32    74.84     3.51    79.40     4.05    18.55    15.73    94.42    32.50P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.43    27.80    -1.59    77.28     3.76    28.00     6.84    90.77    35.81P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.45    35.63    -2.11    75.43     4.08    21.60     3.47    77.86    24.96P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.39    72.00     9.30    74.37     4.04    18.03     1.37    68.47    14.11P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.47    82.27     2.48    69.15     3.94    -0.54     0.06    15.55     2.25P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.23    82.81     4.29    65.68     3.45    -5.97     0.00     2.57     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.61    35.11     1.36    68.65     3.77    14.88     0.01    14.82     3.60P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.74    53.41     4.99    65.97     3.50     8.01     0.00     2.94     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.70    81.86     4.08    64.38     3.73    -7.49     0.00     1.32     0.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.59    52.79     1.92    70.08     4.55    11.47     0.28    26.73     6.16P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.41    56.44    -0.63    64.78     3.83    -0.25     0.00     1.99     0.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.13    41.32     2.34    64.80     3.81     7.76     0.00     2.19     0.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.13    37.23     3.29    62.14     3.78     6.73     0.00     0.37     0.09P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.07    67.18     4.74    59.48     4.27    -8.68     0.00     0.22     0.02P    1.44R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.02    55.29     0.31    54.55     3.45   -13.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.82R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.19    51.41    -4.09    56.81     3.94   -14.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.97R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.27    28.43    -2.16    55.36     3.95    -5.39     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.95R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.28    22.46    -8.28    54.54     3.76   -10.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.45R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.04    13.70    -6.59    55.32     3.99    -2.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.86R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.13    26.28   -12.44    49.82     3.41   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.95R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.54    44.12     0.88    49.99     3.68   -17.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.00R    0.05  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.03    11.58   -14.70    51.97     4.09   -15.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.48R    0.03  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.69    22.68    -4.09    32.44     3.33   -41.09     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.91