Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 24 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.05    99.77     2.95   101.46     3.50    56.88   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.53    20.15    -4.95    80.17     3.52    54.13     0.00    98.72    99.95   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.39    66.65    14.99    68.35     3.99    34.40     0.00     1.19    78.12    93.04    99.51     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.10    39.29    -3.64    63.10     3.83    16.19     0.00     0.08    12.21    53.43    90.94     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.93    30.63     0.49    61.32     3.88    20.04     0.00     0.01     7.64    35.59    83.99     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.19    66.52     7.55    56.36     3.99     8.53     0.00     0.00     0.45     4.89    33.97     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.45    83.86     9.49    55.19     4.17     3.05     0.00     0.00     0.55     3.67    23.32     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.54    13.46    -7.84    56.86     4.03    12.26     0.00     0.00     0.80     6.95    42.57     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.10    25.70    -5.83    54.82     4.13     5.41     0.00     0.00     0.27     2.32    21.66     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.55    77.21     3.82    49.31     3.71    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.24     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.29    62.23    -1.24    48.91     3.76    -9.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.14     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.74    46.75    -4.59    49.33     3.92    -9.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.56     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.58    64.50    -5.13    45.15     3.73   -19.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.98R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.13    67.17    -1.14    43.68     3.79   -21.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.36R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.72    36.52     4.69    37.71     3.64   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.13R    1.79  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.10    21.24    -2.58    38.59     3.93   -16.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.89R    1.85  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.53    27.53    -3.20    36.88     3.76   -21.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.90R    3.98  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.59    27.55    -3.51    35.94     3.68   -24.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.74R    5.05  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.31    44.30     0.94    33.89     3.91   -30.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.33R   16.90  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.96    29.96    -1.28    29.48     3.61   -34.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.64R   70.37  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.75    79.67     7.71    86.89     3.93    31.32    51.23    94.05   100.00    95.89P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.59    64.61     3.19    86.26     4.02    33.09    46.60    91.51   100.00    94.38P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.33    71.06     2.25    77.00     4.04    14.99     1.38     7.86    95.09    29.83P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.94    29.31     9.61    75.74     4.01    36.11     0.71     5.51    93.42    37.46P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.10    74.44     5.09    73.38     4.04    11.57     0.07     0.98    78.68    16.81P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.81    62.02     1.33    68.85     4.06     5.69     0.00     0.04    36.39     7.22P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.11    67.28    -2.03    67.47     4.07    -1.78     0.00     0.03    22.11     4.02P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.14    71.95     6.13    66.87     4.03     4.84     0.00     0.01    19.65     3.28P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2       0.04    50.40    -2.77    66.86     4.08     2.83     0.00     0.01    20.07     4.19P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.41    52.08     4.31    65.54     4.07     7.29     0.00     0.00    14.24     2.74P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.18    50.98    -2.08    65.80     4.01     1.83     0.00     0.00    12.91     2.71P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.18    33.02    -6.61    62.76     4.03    -0.88     0.00     0.00     3.96     0.89P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.29    68.42     4.60    61.55     4.02    -5.43     0.00     0.00     1.60     0.24P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.14    51.31     7.87    60.04     4.00     3.65     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.15P    0.15R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.81    42.65    -1.65    59.67     4.00    -3.99     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.16P    0.21R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.24    55.79    -1.38    58.15     3.97   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    1.22R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.89    22.91    -3.37    53.52     3.94    -7.14     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     9.80R    0.52  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.41    44.78    -2.09    52.71     3.95   -15.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.98R    1.07  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.91    16.03    -9.58    53.33     3.99    -9.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.54R    0.54  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.23    36.74    -2.99    52.51     3.97   -13.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.78R    1.30  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.52    31.98    -5.23    52.43     4.00   -15.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.24R    1.48  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.54    31.46     0.56    49.36     3.89   -13.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.82R    4.74  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.07    37.76    -6.91    44.95     3.96   -32.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.83R   41.26  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.68    20.37    -5.96    43.86     3.89   -23.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.35R   49.07  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.79    96.04     9.48    82.08     4.22    20.06    55.45    75.10    98.23    79.47P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.02    58.65     4.28    77.98     3.99    28.84    17.57    42.19    89.68    55.06P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.89    66.87    11.43    75.71     3.97    29.16     8.02    22.07    79.06    35.84P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.56    52.47    -0.51    74.39     3.97    20.09     3.49    11.89    65.24    26.41P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.18    75.94     4.28    74.93     3.92    17.07     4.36    13.91    69.20    26.00P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.18    44.34     8.42    75.93     3.84    35.34     8.52    24.15    82.87    41.42P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.64    33.61    -4.02    72.49     3.73    19.76     0.91     4.32    47.22    17.41P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.73    93.07     5.60    72.10     4.21     4.18     1.38     4.78    38.72     9.57P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.28    39.49     3.34    69.61     4.19    20.87     0.29     1.55    23.52     7.30P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.32    35.60     1.15    66.07     3.61    14.82     0.00     0.01     3.57     0.98P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.90    58.94     6.01    64.76     3.96    10.09     0.00     0.02     2.50     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.91    37.22    -4.26    60.57     4.05     0.35     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.88    32.97    -0.59    56.74     3.91     0.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.97    55.28    -5.45    55.18     3.81   -14.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.47    39.53     3.26    54.93     4.05    -1.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.70    42.53    -6.05    53.66     4.05   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.52    34.66     1.28    50.35     3.86    -9.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.86R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.62    30.43    -1.75    47.19     3.85   -14.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.28R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.95    46.58    -1.60    48.31     4.15   -20.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.92R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.95    28.24    -0.96    45.41     3.82   -15.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.78R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.62    48.03    -1.23    40.92     3.88   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.94R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.22     4.38   -17.48    27.24     3.63   -53.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.92  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.20    26.21   -14.63    22.20     3.76   -47.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.08  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.37    84.21    10.79    82.79     4.05    26.12    16.50    66.46    99.83    74.62P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.72    85.70     8.30    86.24     4.28    28.27    48.94    87.81    99.98    91.14P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.49    64.31     1.30    83.79     4.07    27.08    23.57    74.75    99.92    82.74P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.72    79.74     0.45    79.17     3.96    12.71     2.81    26.05    98.53    44.13P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.93    81.02    15.15    80.18     4.23    28.57     8.10    42.32    99.41    56.79P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.75    46.92     3.35    71.90     4.05    17.30     0.04     1.42    70.32    20.25P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.38    51.79     3.95    71.03     4.02    14.98     0.03     0.95    61.75    15.68P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.31    79.02     7.13    69.22     3.96     5.85     0.01     0.20    36.95     6.67P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.23    40.68    -4.07    67.48     4.00     5.75     0.00     0.04    24.29     6.14P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.30    68.36    10.57    60.99     3.91     0.84     0.00     0.00     1.20     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.46    39.56    -0.19    63.17     4.17     3.71     0.00     0.00     5.37     1.21P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.62    47.95     7.15    60.35     3.94     3.94     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.09    60.08     2.27    57.90     3.89    -8.04     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.77    38.58    -9.65    60.19     4.28    -9.65     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.05    50.45    -2.93    58.03     4.13    -9.12     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       0.98    55.09     1.43    55.52     3.90   -10.42     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.32    49.26     2.97    52.90     4.10   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.55    35.23    -9.08    53.80     3.98   -17.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.85    19.83    -9.89    52.58     3.95   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.69    12.89   -11.52    53.24     4.05   -10.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.24     5.56   -11.17    52.77     4.29    -5.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.57    39.12     2.15    45.34     3.74   -19.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.31R    1.31  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -5.89    25.43    -5.58    41.22     3.81   -29.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.84R   12.84  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.84     1.39   -12.88    33.99     4.14   -28.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.81R   85.81  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.72    82.49    13.21    84.34     4.04    31.97    71.98    99.76    78.49P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.14    74.31     3.27    79.42     4.08    18.56    15.74    94.34    32.62P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.40    28.16    -1.49    77.23     3.79    27.92     6.73    90.50    35.68P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.60    34.84    -2.35    75.49     4.06    21.70     3.67    78.59    25.85P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.35    71.92     9.18    74.37     4.04    18.04     1.46    67.99    13.74P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.50    82.56     2.54    69.20     3.97    -0.47     0.05    16.05     2.33P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.47    83.44     4.64    65.65     3.43    -6.01     0.00     2.33     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.66    35.19     1.30    68.64     3.75    14.87     0.01    14.69     3.53P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.75    53.35     5.00    65.93     3.52     7.99     0.00     2.88     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.99    82.50     4.49    64.32     3.72    -7.62     0.00     1.27     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.30    51.25     1.51    70.15     4.54    11.56     0.37    26.84     6.10P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.25    55.71    -0.83    64.80     3.82    -0.21     0.00     1.91     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.14    41.51     2.31    64.81     3.82     7.76     0.00     2.19     0.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.90    38.48     3.65    62.10     3.79     6.66     0.00     0.42     0.08P    0.07R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.94    66.93     4.46    59.51     4.30    -8.62     0.00     0.24     0.03P    1.45R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       0.82    54.06     0.05    54.56     3.44   -13.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.46R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.18    51.31    -4.10    56.84     3.96   -14.23     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.03R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.31    28.20    -2.23    55.36     3.96    -5.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.16R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.25    22.80    -8.19    54.55     3.76   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.08R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.02    13.54    -6.57    55.33     3.97    -2.87     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.59R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.18    25.97   -12.49    49.83     3.38   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.43R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.37    44.98     1.14    49.89     3.66   -17.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.15R    0.02  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.90    11.90   -14.49    51.97     4.09   -15.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.56R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.65    22.42    -4.02    32.46     3.32   -41.07     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95