Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 23 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.08    99.80     2.99   101.42     3.51    56.81   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.66    19.56    -5.21    80.19     3.51    54.12     0.00    98.69    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.54    67.31    15.24    68.30     3.99    34.32     0.00     1.24    77.83    92.98    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.27    38.47    -3.93    63.12     3.85    16.27     0.00     0.06    12.42    53.26    91.16     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.90    30.52     0.55    61.28     3.90    19.97     0.00     0.01     7.57    35.32    83.55     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.14    65.98     7.51    56.39     4.04     8.56     0.00     0.00     0.55     5.21    34.43     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.44    83.75     9.47    55.21     4.15     3.07     0.00     0.00     0.53     3.65    23.15     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.57    13.30    -7.89    56.88     4.04    12.32     0.00     0.00     0.84     7.10    42.58     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.06    25.77    -5.76    54.82     4.13     5.40     0.00     0.00     0.29     2.34    21.67     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.65    77.45     3.95    49.30     3.70    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.15     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.28    62.20    -1.27    48.92     3.76    -9.66     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     1.24     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.53    47.80    -4.29    49.24     3.92    -9.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.47     0.05R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.62    64.43    -5.13    45.17     3.72   -19.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.03R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.11    66.84    -1.16    43.69     3.82   -21.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.45R    0.02  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.74    36.15     4.64    37.74     3.64   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.70R    1.70  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.01    21.52    -2.45    38.55     3.93   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.04R    1.93  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.46    28.18    -3.04    36.86     3.74   -21.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.95R    4.15  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.50    28.16    -3.28    35.92     3.68   -24.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.28R    5.23  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.54    42.89     0.63    33.96     3.91   -30.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.07R   16.85  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.13    28.95    -1.58    29.54     3.63   -34.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.42R   70.12  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.97    80.52     8.08    86.84     3.96    31.24    51.19    93.99   100.00    95.97P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.59    64.92     3.22    86.23     4.01    33.09    46.65    91.42    99.99    94.30P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.34    71.25     2.21    77.02     4.03    14.99     1.36     7.81    95.39    29.75P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.79    29.96     9.82    75.74     4.01    36.12     0.70     5.61    93.25    37.23P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.18    74.84     5.25    73.39     4.06    11.57     0.10     1.08    78.37    16.97P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.86    62.23     1.43    68.82     4.05     5.67     0.00     0.04    35.89     6.95P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.04    67.12    -2.12    67.48     4.07    -1.76     0.00     0.01    22.39     4.17P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.18    72.12     6.16    66.84     4.05     4.80     0.00     0.00    19.69     3.54P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2       0.06    50.57    -2.70    66.81     4.07     2.78     0.00     0.02    19.76     4.19P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.25    51.50     4.10    65.58     4.09     7.38     0.00     0.00    14.67     2.85P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.15    50.89    -2.09    65.81     4.03     1.85     0.00     0.00    13.23     2.64P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.96    33.68    -6.28    62.71     4.02    -0.97     0.00     0.00     4.05     0.88P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.03    67.36     4.21    61.57     4.01    -5.42     0.00     0.00     1.51     0.22P    0.05R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.12    51.17     7.82    60.08     4.02     3.69     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.19P    0.20R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.69    43.07    -1.58    59.67     4.00    -3.99     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.13P    0.18R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.35    56.41    -1.26    58.17     3.96   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    1.16R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.79    23.19    -3.28    53.48     3.94    -7.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   10.20R    0.45  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.36    44.93    -2.05    52.72     3.94   -15.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.95R    1.08  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -9.00    15.71    -9.68    53.35     3.99    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.57R    0.49  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.51    35.21    -3.41    52.54     3.99   -13.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.59R    1.26  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.49    31.74    -5.11    52.42     4.00   -15.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.35R    1.55  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.77    30.41     0.17    49.39     3.92   -13.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.69R    4.81  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.07    37.75    -6.83    44.94     3.96   -32.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.63R   41.56  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.72    19.94    -6.08    43.89     3.87   -23.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.45R   48.79  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.73    95.80     9.38    82.08     4.24    20.07    55.99    75.30    98.16    79.83P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.15    59.02     4.56    77.91     3.98    28.74    16.74    41.64    89.39    54.81P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.78    66.64    11.32    75.71     3.95    29.18     8.08    22.09    79.10    35.73P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.57    52.20    -0.54    74.40     3.94    20.09     3.69    12.00    65.58    26.56P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.16    75.83     4.21    74.94     3.93    17.08     4.31    14.19    69.43    26.15P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.25    43.95     8.37    75.92     3.82    35.32     8.53    24.18    82.98    41.40P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.64    33.70    -3.92    72.47     3.71    19.71     0.99     4.28    46.84    17.48P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.94    93.38     5.87    72.07     4.23     4.13     1.34     4.75    38.55     9.40P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.10    40.08     3.57    69.62     4.18    20.91     0.32     1.51    23.72     7.11P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.51    35.36     0.90    66.07     3.60    14.79     0.00     0.01     3.68     1.03P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.89    59.08     6.06    64.77     3.93    10.08     0.01     0.03     2.43     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.79    37.72    -4.12    60.57     4.01     0.37     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.88    33.29    -0.63    56.72     3.90     0.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.67    53.71    -5.91    55.27     3.81   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.35    40.01     3.42    54.91     3.99    -1.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.85    41.81    -6.27    53.72     4.03   -12.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.60    34.37     1.14    50.40     3.85    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.73R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.48    30.59    -1.50    47.13     3.81   -14.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.30R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -1.00    46.14    -1.83    48.33     4.14   -20.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.91R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.85    28.77    -0.87    45.37     3.78   -15.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.75R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.56    48.59    -1.18    40.89     3.84   -32.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.12R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.21     4.54   -17.41    27.28     3.60   -53.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   20.43  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.25    26.19   -14.65    22.18     3.75   -47.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.57  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.08    83.26    10.31    82.88     4.05    26.24    17.05    67.27    99.84    75.55P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.80    86.09     8.46    86.26     4.26    28.28    48.82    87.97    99.99    91.29P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.76    65.35     1.72    83.74     4.07    27.01    23.16    73.90    99.90    82.02P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.74    79.97     0.45    79.15     4.00    12.71     2.91    25.88    98.35    43.85P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.88    80.88    15.06    80.20     4.22    28.55     8.00    42.39    99.38    56.88P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.81    46.32     3.25    71.89     4.02    17.30     0.03     1.36    70.37    20.03P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.37    51.69     3.88    71.02     4.03    15.00     0.02     0.97    61.48    15.40P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.29    79.02     7.12    69.20     3.95     5.81     0.00     0.20    36.67     6.70P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.34    40.23    -4.20    67.53     4.01     5.80     0.00     0.05    24.72     6.28P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.12    67.31    10.31    61.04     3.92     0.93     0.00     0.00     1.32     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.75    38.44    -0.62    63.21     4.18     3.78     0.00     0.00     5.50     1.30P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.70    47.76     7.12    60.39     3.92     3.98     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.90    59.12     1.91    57.95     3.88    -7.96     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.37    40.35    -9.03    60.09     4.27    -9.81     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.03    50.80    -2.82    57.99     4.07    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.26    56.18     1.76    55.44     3.88   -10.53     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.29    49.51     3.07    52.85     4.11   -12.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.63    34.96    -9.20    53.79     3.98   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.70    20.20    -9.63    52.58     3.97   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.60    13.12   -11.48    53.21     4.04   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.15     5.66   -11.01    52.75     4.31    -5.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.03  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.55    39.24     2.14    45.36     3.75   -19.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.36R    1.36  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.01    24.73    -5.75    41.29     3.82   -29.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.47R   12.47  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.86     1.38   -12.82    34.01     4.14   -28.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.12R   86.12  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.81    82.93    13.37    84.35     4.02    31.99    72.16    99.82    78.58P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.21    74.46     3.35    79.42     4.06    18.58    15.64    94.36    32.61P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.42    27.97    -1.47    77.22     3.78    27.91     6.76    90.30    35.39P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.63    34.79    -2.41    75.54     4.03    21.77     3.58    79.19    25.79P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.34    71.95     9.17    74.39     4.02    18.06     1.43    68.62    13.98P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.71    83.09     2.84    69.13     3.94    -0.59     0.06    15.45     2.21P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.34    83.02     4.44    65.64     3.42    -6.02     0.00     2.30     0.29P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.45    35.74     1.58    68.59     3.77    14.80     0.01    14.46     3.55P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.69    53.08     4.93    65.92     3.51     8.01     0.00     2.81     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.95    82.62     4.50    64.33     3.73    -7.59     0.00     1.31     0.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.42    52.05     1.70    70.15     4.52    11.55     0.35    26.91     6.16P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.28    55.80    -0.78    64.79     3.80    -0.23     0.00     1.68     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.04    41.85     2.45    64.81     3.83     7.76     0.00     2.16     0.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.05    37.51     3.42    62.14     3.78     6.72     0.00     0.40     0.08P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.91    66.61     4.47    59.49     4.28    -8.65     0.00     0.22     0.03P    1.46R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.10    55.40     0.39    54.57     3.43   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.34R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.00    50.66    -4.34    56.83     3.95   -14.26     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.15R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.46    27.95    -2.46    55.42     3.95    -5.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.87R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.46    21.85    -8.54    54.52     3.77   -10.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.56R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.96    13.99    -6.52    55.31     3.99    -2.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.83R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.18    26.14   -12.57    49.85     3.40   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.36R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.31    45.17     1.22    49.87     3.68   -17.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.49R    0.02  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.99    11.74   -14.61    52.00     4.08   -15.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.86R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.74    22.13    -4.13    32.48     3.31   -41.03     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95