Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 22 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.10    99.79     3.08   101.43     3.51    56.84   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.66    19.63    -5.20    80.24     3.51    54.21     0.00    98.70    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.49    67.24    15.07    68.37     4.00    34.41     0.00     1.24    78.14    92.99    99.48     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.18    38.71    -3.82    63.11     3.85    16.25     0.00     0.05    12.26    53.42    91.07     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.87    31.01     0.64    61.27     3.88    19.99     0.00     0.00     7.44    35.19    83.84     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.24    66.28     7.63    56.35     4.02     8.50     0.00     0.00     0.52     5.17    34.13     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.41    83.77     9.43    55.22     4.16     3.08     0.00     0.00     0.55     3.71    23.48     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.52    13.22    -7.80    56.85     4.02    12.27     0.00     0.00     0.85     7.04    42.41     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.04    25.73    -5.78    54.80     4.12     5.38     0.00     0.00     0.26     2.35    21.70     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.65    77.30     3.99    49.29     3.72    -9.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.12     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.44    63.26    -1.05    48.86     3.75    -9.77     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     1.21     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.64    47.19    -4.41    49.26     3.88    -9.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.48     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.46    63.62    -5.35    45.17     3.74   -19.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.02R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.09    66.85    -1.18    43.70     3.79   -21.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.48R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.84    35.90     4.48    37.74     3.64   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.93R    1.71  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.10    21.35    -2.61    38.57     3.94   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.86R    2.00  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.47    28.03    -3.03    36.86     3.75   -21.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.38R    4.15  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.59    27.66    -3.52    35.94     3.66   -24.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.70R    5.21  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.35    43.83     0.84    33.95     3.89   -30.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.16R   16.61  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.08    29.47    -1.43    29.51     3.63   -34.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.44R   70.28  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.92    80.44     8.04    86.85     3.95    31.26    51.37    94.09    99.99    95.95P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.69    65.03     3.34    86.23     3.99    33.08    46.65    91.64   100.00    94.49P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.37    71.16     2.32    76.98     4.03    14.94     1.23     7.64    95.07    29.22P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.95    29.55     9.62    75.74     4.00    36.12     0.68     5.50    93.21    37.69P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.10    74.67     5.15    73.41     4.03    11.59     0.07     1.03    78.99    17.25P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.95    62.54     1.53    68.79     4.04     5.63     0.00     0.05    35.82     6.88P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.03    67.03    -2.18    67.48     4.04    -1.76     0.00     0.02    22.21     3.99P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.19    71.64     6.15    66.86     4.07     4.82     0.00     0.00    19.85     3.49P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.04    50.02    -2.87    66.88     4.05     2.85     0.00     0.01    20.10     4.22P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.38    52.09     4.29    65.56     4.05     7.31     0.00     0.01    14.39     2.80P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.14    50.79    -2.18    65.81     3.99     1.87     0.00     0.01    13.06     2.66P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.85    34.15    -6.19    62.71     4.02    -0.96     0.00     0.00     3.92     0.81P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.07    67.31     4.21    61.59     4.03    -5.39     0.00     0.00     1.59     0.21P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4      -0.08    50.02     7.58    60.14     4.00     3.75     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.19P    0.19R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.66    43.52    -1.57    59.68     4.00    -3.99     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.11P    0.25R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.28    56.19    -1.37    58.21     3.97   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    1.14R    0.00  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.78    23.01    -3.22    53.44     3.94    -7.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.24R    0.51  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.36    44.76    -2.08    52.69     3.92   -15.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.77R    1.05  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.91    16.07    -9.62    53.34     3.98    -9.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.33R    0.50  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.46    35.50    -3.31    52.51     3.99   -13.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.80R    1.20  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.47    31.91    -5.08    52.40     4.01   -15.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.62R    1.59  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.79    30.67     0.19    49.39     3.91   -13.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.48R    4.88  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.08    37.49    -6.81    44.94     3.95   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.91R   41.52  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.66    20.64    -5.95    43.89     3.89   -23.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.21R   48.75  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.67    95.69     9.31    82.11     4.25    20.09    56.12    75.37    98.19    79.88P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.98    58.50     4.27    77.96     3.98    28.81    17.05    41.90    89.70    55.01P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.72    66.31    11.21    75.78     3.95    29.26     8.08    22.74    79.58    36.11P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.66    52.70    -0.45    74.36     3.95    20.04     3.55    11.73    65.13    26.22P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.11    75.53     4.20    74.92     3.94    17.04     4.37    14.17    69.03    25.86P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.15    44.51     8.61    75.86     3.86    35.23     8.11    23.52    82.30    40.62P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.66    33.80    -4.04    72.51     3.74    19.74     0.97     4.29    47.36    17.90P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.91    93.29     5.82    72.06     4.22     4.10     1.43     4.71    38.50     9.52P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.18    39.88     3.42    69.61     4.19    20.91     0.32     1.55    23.71     7.31P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.55    34.83     0.87    66.10     3.63    14.84     0.00     0.01     3.80     1.06P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.95    59.05     6.17    64.73     3.98    10.03     0.00     0.02     2.47     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.90    37.37    -4.25    60.59     4.02     0.41     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.98    32.71    -0.76    56.76     3.93     0.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.88    54.73    -5.58    55.26     3.79   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.27    40.61     3.58    54.92     4.03    -1.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.59    43.24    -5.89    53.63     4.04   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.47    34.96     1.33    50.38     3.85    -9.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.89R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.59    30.05    -1.76    47.15     3.82   -14.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.39R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.88    47.09    -1.56    48.24     4.14   -20.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.24R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.81    28.95    -0.84    45.40     3.81   -15.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.94R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.71    47.89    -1.45    40.96     3.87   -31.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.29R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.24     4.50   -17.56    27.26     3.60   -53.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   20.53  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.23    26.46   -14.64    22.19     3.73   -47.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.47  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.20    83.93    10.52    82.81     4.05    26.18    16.80    66.76    99.85    75.18P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.75    85.75     8.37    86.18     4.27    28.17    48.29    87.49    99.98    90.94P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.56    64.49     1.42    83.79     4.06    27.07    23.71    74.60    99.91    82.50P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.81    80.10     0.59    79.11     3.98    12.64     2.93    25.67    98.36    43.15P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.76    80.15    14.91    80.25     4.23    28.63     8.19    42.93    99.32    57.39P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.89    46.04     3.17    71.95     4.05    17.39     0.04     1.45    70.55    20.25P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.59    52.59     4.21    71.00     4.01    14.93     0.03     0.86    61.11    15.40P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.29    79.25     7.11    69.21     3.95     5.85     0.01     0.20    36.60     6.65P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.68    38.73    -4.70    67.62     3.99     5.93     0.00     0.05    25.24     6.60P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.31    68.35    10.63    61.01     3.92     0.87     0.00     0.00     1.32     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.53    39.18    -0.38    63.18     4.19     3.68     0.00     0.00     5.33     1.25P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.77    47.27     6.98    60.41     3.94     4.03     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.89    59.03     1.91    57.93     3.90    -7.99     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.58    39.37    -9.31    60.12     4.25    -9.73     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.07    50.87    -2.77    57.98     4.10    -9.20     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.21    56.18     1.73    55.50     3.90   -10.49     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.31    49.54     3.01    52.86     4.11   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.50    35.52    -8.94    53.77     4.00   -17.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.92    19.62    -9.96    52.60     3.98   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.58    13.11   -11.42    53.27     4.03   -10.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -13.94     5.92   -10.74    52.70     4.29    -5.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.03  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.55    39.23     2.15    45.33     3.74   -19.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.44R    1.44  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.04    24.68    -5.72    41.30     3.79   -29.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.12R   12.12  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.76     1.36   -12.78    33.94     4.17   -28.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.37R   86.37  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.70    82.36    13.27    84.37     4.03    32.02    72.40    99.79    78.86P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.32    74.75     3.53    79.38     4.06    18.51    15.20    94.18    31.61P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.48    27.85    -1.61    77.28     3.76    27.98     6.92    90.60    35.53P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.74    34.30    -2.56    75.54     4.05    21.79     3.66    78.77    26.08P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.40    71.92     9.26    74.40     4.04    18.07     1.40    68.33    14.00P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.41    82.26     2.44    69.17     3.95    -0.53     0.07    15.46     2.32P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.53    83.76     4.76    65.64     3.45    -6.06     0.00     2.40     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.59    35.08     1.38    68.64     3.78    14.88     0.01    14.68     3.60P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.52    52.61     4.67    66.00     3.50     8.07     0.00     2.88     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.96    82.68     4.50    64.32     3.73    -7.59     0.00     1.35     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.30    51.37     1.51    70.17     4.51    11.57     0.34    26.92     6.24P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.33    56.23    -0.71    64.82     3.80    -0.17     0.00     1.85     0.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.16    41.46     2.33    64.79     3.83     7.72     0.00     2.19     0.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.79    38.58     3.78    62.08     3.78     6.64     0.00     0.39     0.08P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.01    67.05     4.61    59.47     4.28    -8.70     0.00     0.19     0.02P    1.49R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       0.93    54.56     0.20    54.56     3.45   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.33R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.28    51.92    -3.90    56.78     3.97   -14.32     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.39R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.39    28.09    -2.41    55.38     3.94    -5.33     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.97R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.17    22.63    -8.06    54.51     3.74   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.50R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.96    13.91    -6.47    55.32     3.99    -2.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.77R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.33    25.43   -12.72    49.86     3.40   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.15R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.42    44.69     1.00    49.92     3.65   -17.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.57R    0.02  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.95    12.13   -14.56    51.94     4.07   -15.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.73R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.79    21.51    -4.24    32.44     3.30   -41.08     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95