Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 21 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.06    99.77     2.92   101.43     3.52    56.86   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.63    19.73    -5.23    80.21     3.51    54.14     0.00    98.80    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.49    67.16    15.13    68.32     3.99    34.33     0.00     1.14    78.07    93.01    99.47     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.13    39.00    -3.73    63.10     3.85    16.22     0.00     0.06    12.04    53.20    91.13     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.87    30.69     0.58    61.32     3.88    20.02     0.00     0.00     7.84    35.51    83.94     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.23    66.41     7.60    56.36     4.02     8.51     0.00     0.00     0.49     5.00    33.93     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.41    83.80     9.48    55.19     4.15     3.07     0.00     0.00     0.52     3.63    22.93     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.60    13.29    -7.97    56.84     4.03    12.30     0.00     0.00     0.80     7.14    42.37     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.16    25.34    -5.97    54.88     4.11     5.49     0.00     0.00     0.28     2.38    22.17     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.58    76.87     3.88    49.33     3.71    -9.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.11     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.34    62.59    -1.13    48.93     3.77    -9.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.28     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.77    46.51    -4.61    49.31     3.90    -9.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.58     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.64    64.80    -5.13    45.20     3.71   -19.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.98R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.03    66.49    -1.26    43.72     3.81   -21.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.29R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.73    36.31     4.62    37.72     3.64   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.95R    1.74  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.02    21.71    -2.39    38.51     3.93   -16.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.14R    2.12  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.42    28.52    -3.02    36.87     3.76   -21.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.44R    4.03  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.57    27.66    -3.37    35.91     3.66   -24.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.10R    5.08  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.34    43.95     0.96    33.89     3.88   -30.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.77R   16.58  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.04    29.64    -1.35    29.48     3.66   -34.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.29R   70.40  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.74    79.67     7.75    86.88     3.98    31.32    51.63    93.82   100.00    95.74P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.63    64.84     3.24    86.20     4.04    33.00    46.20    90.93   100.00    94.08P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.19    70.72     2.03    77.04     4.07    15.05     1.42     8.22    95.39    30.17P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.99    29.15     9.56    75.78     4.01    36.17     0.66     5.76    93.32    38.00P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.14    74.65     5.15    73.41     4.03    11.61     0.09     1.16    79.04    16.93P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       3.04    63.04     1.69    68.74     4.06     5.58     0.00     0.06    35.48     6.88P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.17    67.67    -1.97    67.46     4.05    -1.77     0.00     0.02    22.19     3.91P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.09    71.36     6.08    66.87     4.04     4.85     0.00     0.01    19.89     3.31P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2       0.04    50.30    -2.74    66.85     4.06     2.82     0.00     0.02    19.93     4.21P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.40    51.91     4.31    65.55     4.05     7.32     0.00     0.01    14.37     2.77P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.17    50.95    -2.05    65.82     4.00     1.86     0.00     0.00    13.02     2.68P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.09    33.27    -6.52    62.77     3.99    -0.88     0.00     0.00     3.94     0.79P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.07    67.26     4.25    61.55     4.04    -5.45     0.00     0.00     1.66     0.23P    0.05R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.15    51.31     7.92    60.07     4.00     3.67     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.15P    0.19R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.87    42.59    -1.74    59.69     4.01    -3.96     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.13P    0.22R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.37    56.62    -1.23    58.15     3.95   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    1.16R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.74    23.53    -3.20    53.46     3.95    -7.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.15R    0.53  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.37    44.81    -2.10    52.69     3.95   -15.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.11R    1.04  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.88    16.33    -9.55    53.31     3.98    -9.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.56R    0.51  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.45    35.49    -3.30    52.53     3.96   -13.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.39R    1.24  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.54    31.64    -5.19    52.46     3.99   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.76R    1.51  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.60    31.41     0.43    49.31     3.89   -13.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.44R    4.72  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.09    37.39    -6.88    44.95     3.95   -32.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.70R   41.59  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.61    20.58    -5.93    43.89     3.90   -23.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.25R   48.84  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.64    95.77     9.27    82.11     4.26    20.08    56.04    75.51    98.21    80.01P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.98    58.29     4.23    77.97     3.99    28.81    17.36    41.95    89.47    54.98P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       4.06    67.51    11.73    75.68     3.98    29.13     8.10    22.06    78.82    35.50P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.60    52.59    -0.53    74.38     3.93    20.06     3.53    11.93    65.62    26.31P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.19    75.90     4.29    74.92     3.93    17.06     4.20    13.72    69.33    25.41P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.23    44.28     8.32    75.93     3.81    35.34     8.29    24.05    82.95    41.64P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.62    34.15    -3.95    72.45     3.75    19.66     0.82     4.49    46.48    17.69P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.79    93.18     5.70    72.09     4.22     4.14     1.37     4.76    38.81     9.56P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.40    39.02     3.13    69.65     4.18    20.95     0.28     1.50    24.06     7.43P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.17    36.52     1.39    66.01     3.62    14.73     0.00     0.01     3.59     0.93P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.70    58.16     5.79    64.80     3.95    10.14     0.00     0.02     2.51     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.73    38.08    -4.01    60.51     4.02     0.27     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.99    32.49    -0.80    56.81     3.90     0.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.72    53.95    -5.79    55.27     3.79   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.46    39.58     3.29    54.93     4.03    -1.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.79    42.16    -6.22    53.68     4.02   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.61    34.29     1.16    50.38     3.86    -9.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.89R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.39    31.44    -1.34    47.13     3.85   -14.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.23R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.79    47.41    -1.40    48.29     4.14   -20.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.85R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -5.01    28.31    -1.10    45.41     3.82   -15.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.52R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.44    48.97    -0.94    40.84     3.85   -32.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.31R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.20     4.41   -17.42    27.23     3.60   -53.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   21.12  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.35    25.72   -14.80    22.26     3.77   -47.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   78.88  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.32    84.02    10.68    82.80     4.06    26.14    16.63    66.76    99.85    75.14P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.85    86.04     8.50    86.21     4.26    28.21    48.79    87.85    99.99    91.17P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.56    64.89     1.46    83.80     4.08    27.07    23.50    74.92    99.90    82.69P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.64    79.42     0.35    79.17     3.98    12.73     2.99    25.96    98.46    43.56P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.98    81.37    15.26    80.17     4.24    28.52     8.02    41.96    99.32    56.77P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.69    47.14     3.45    71.88     4.03    17.30     0.04     1.29    70.17    19.97P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.39    51.67     3.93    71.01     4.04    14.97     0.03     0.98    61.36    15.72P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.38    79.38     7.26    69.19     4.00     5.83     0.00     0.23    36.72     6.67P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.38    40.02    -4.24    67.54     4.00     5.82     0.00     0.05    25.00     6.36P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.13    67.86    10.27    61.03     3.91     0.93     0.00     0.00     1.17     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.68    38.43    -0.52    63.25     4.16     3.80     0.00     0.00     5.54     1.27P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.65    47.82     7.10    60.37     3.95     3.97     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.86    58.80     1.91    57.97     3.91    -7.95     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.67    38.69    -9.45    60.17     4.26    -9.68     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.05    50.46    -2.97    58.02     4.12    -9.13     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.22    56.12     1.70    55.44     3.90   -10.57     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.32    49.30     3.01    52.86     4.13   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.75    34.62    -9.38    53.83     4.00   -17.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.79    19.86    -9.83    52.58     3.96   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.44    13.35   -11.21    53.19     4.03   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.11     5.86   -10.98    52.79     4.30    -5.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.03R    0.03  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.32    40.39     2.49    45.29     3.74   -19.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.47R    1.47  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.14    24.31    -5.90    41.29     3.77   -29.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.08R   12.08  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.89     1.30   -12.90    33.97     4.16   -28.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.39R   86.39  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.78    82.55    13.33    84.36     4.03    32.02    72.44    99.82    78.97P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.41    74.92     3.62    79.36     4.06    18.46    15.25    94.17    32.17P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.39    28.23    -1.48    77.28     3.77    28.02     6.93    90.84    35.45P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.51    35.16    -2.18    75.49     4.04    21.70     3.50    78.74    25.72P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.11    70.76     8.86    74.43     4.04    18.13     1.41    68.79    14.33P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.51    82.19     2.54    69.14     3.95    -0.58     0.07    15.29     2.28P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.73    84.35     5.02    65.62     3.42    -6.06     0.00     2.17     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.55    35.64     1.46    68.64     3.78    14.87     0.01    14.86     3.55P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.42    51.91     4.50    66.02     3.53     8.12     0.00     2.99     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.73    81.96     4.14    64.36     3.72    -7.54     0.00     1.32     0.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.43    52.03     1.73    70.10     4.51    11.49     0.41    26.34     5.82P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.02    54.63    -1.18    64.84     3.83    -0.14     0.00     1.89     0.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.02    41.77     2.55    64.78     3.83     7.72     0.00     2.17     0.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.86    38.26     3.67    62.10     3.79     6.67     0.00     0.41     0.06P    0.07R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.97    66.89     4.47    59.44     4.26    -8.72     0.00     0.19     0.02P    1.49R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       0.92    54.67     0.17    54.58     3.46   -13.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.66R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.14    51.15    -4.15    56.82     3.96   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.17R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.44    27.87    -2.42    55.38     3.95    -5.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.97R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.22    22.67    -8.11    54.51     3.74   -10.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.56R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.85    14.11    -6.31    55.29     3.97    -2.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.80R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.32    25.65   -12.70    49.84     3.40   -23.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.44R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.42    44.70     0.99    49.97     3.68   -17.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.35R    0.02  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.95    11.86   -14.60    51.97     4.08   -15.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.47R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.62    22.59    -3.91    32.43     3.31   -41.15     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.96