Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 20 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.09    99.78     3.11   101.46     3.50    56.87   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.73    19.50    -5.41    80.20     3.52    54.19     0.00    98.73    99.98   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.46    66.93    15.10    68.36     4.00    34.41     0.00     1.21    78.26    93.31    99.55     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.13    39.03    -3.70    63.09     3.85    16.20     0.00     0.05    12.07    53.31    90.82     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.80    30.87     0.63    61.28     3.87    19.96     0.00     0.01     7.52    35.10    83.88     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.15    66.15     7.55    56.40     4.02     8.58     0.00     0.00     0.51     5.13    34.56     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.61    84.49     9.73    55.15     4.14     2.98     0.00     0.00     0.51     3.53    22.59     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.62    13.36    -7.99    56.90     4.05    12.35     0.00     0.00     0.86     7.13    43.08     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.07    25.72    -5.82    54.82     4.12     5.41     0.00     0.00     0.29     2.39    21.70     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.54    76.76     3.79    49.35     3.70    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.16     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.38    62.92    -1.06    48.87     3.75    -9.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.14     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.50    47.95    -4.26    49.24     3.88    -9.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.45     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.56    64.27    -5.20    45.16     3.71   -19.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.02R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.04    66.54    -1.23    43.74     3.81   -21.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.37R    0.02  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.75    36.30     4.56    37.73     3.62   -13.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.83R    1.56  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.14    21.14    -2.61    38.57     3.96   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.21R    2.09  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.43    28.21    -3.02    36.83     3.75   -21.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.23R    4.07  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.62    27.41    -3.51    35.91     3.68   -24.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.03R    5.13  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.49    43.16     0.68    34.00     3.88   -30.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.72R   16.24  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.02    29.69    -1.34    29.47     3.63   -34.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.54R   70.87  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.83    80.29     7.84    86.87     3.94    31.32    51.42    93.99   100.00    95.70P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.73    65.35     3.43    86.24     3.98    33.08    46.45    91.53   100.00    94.44P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.19    70.63     2.02    77.02     4.04    15.01     1.39     7.70    95.35    30.12P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -5.01    28.93     9.55    75.75     3.98    36.12     0.66     5.65    93.28    37.89P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       5.99    74.14     4.95    73.44     4.02    11.66     0.08     1.03    79.06    16.81P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.92    62.57     1.52    68.81     4.04     5.68     0.00     0.05    35.94     6.93P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.35    68.18    -1.65    67.42     4.05    -1.84     0.00     0.01    21.53     3.69P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       4.95    70.96     5.85    66.91     4.01     4.88     0.00     0.01    19.90     3.41P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.08    49.65    -2.92    66.87     4.07     2.83     0.00     0.01    20.06     4.36P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.35    51.77     4.23    65.57     4.07     7.33     0.00     0.01    14.25     2.73P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1      -0.00    50.08    -2.34    65.86     4.02     1.93     0.00     0.01    13.39     2.58P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.95    33.74    -6.26    62.68     4.00    -1.00     0.00     0.00     3.72     0.76P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.02    67.26     4.25    61.58     4.03    -5.39     0.00     0.00     1.64     0.24P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4      -0.10    50.11     7.56    60.11     4.01     3.74     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.19P    0.19R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.68    43.09    -1.50    59.67     3.98    -4.01     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.12P    0.20R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.38    56.59    -1.18    58.16     3.98   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    1.16R    0.02  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.73    23.34    -3.22    53.47     3.95    -7.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.05R    0.53  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.16    45.88    -1.76    52.63     3.94   -15.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.24R    1.04  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.91    16.06    -9.57    53.31     4.01    -9.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   11.89R    0.55  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.40    35.91    -3.27    52.51     3.99   -13.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.68R    1.31  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.60    31.25    -5.25    52.43     4.01   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.11R    1.45  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.58    31.64     0.49    49.37     3.90   -13.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.41R    4.84  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.99    38.05    -6.77    44.94     3.97   -32.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.64R   41.32  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.64    20.43    -5.98    43.86     3.90   -23.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.37R   48.94  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.74    95.76     9.38    82.09     4.25    20.06    55.82    75.24    98.18    79.77P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.85    57.81     4.11    77.99     3.99    28.87    17.28    42.45    89.58    55.48P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.77    66.53    11.25    75.74     3.96    29.25     8.13    22.33    79.40    35.82P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.68    52.90    -0.39    74.35     3.97    19.99     3.53    11.89    65.36    26.52P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.19    75.93     4.30    74.91     3.93    17.03     4.38    13.97    69.47    25.91P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.04    45.05     8.78    75.88     3.83    35.26     8.22    23.52    82.89    40.71P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.62    33.85    -3.99    72.44     3.71    19.70     0.93     4.34    46.63    17.18P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.95    93.27     5.93    72.01     4.22     4.03     1.39     4.62    38.07     9.39P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.31    39.36     3.19    69.63     4.20    20.91     0.32     1.61    24.12     7.66P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.39    35.51     1.04    66.08     3.63    14.83     0.00     0.02     3.74     1.05P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.88    58.87     6.00    64.80     3.95    10.13     0.00     0.01     2.37     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.82    37.60    -4.12    60.57     4.04     0.35     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -4.16    32.19    -1.02    56.82     3.90     0.28     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.81    54.24    -5.73    55.25     3.80   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.52    39.44     3.15    54.97     4.03    -1.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.66    42.69    -5.96    53.65     4.05   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.70    33.99     0.95    50.41     3.87    -8.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.72R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.45    30.89    -1.42    47.13     3.83   -14.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.25R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.76    47.46    -1.38    48.27     4.12   -20.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.94R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.97    28.50    -1.04    45.42     3.83   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.45R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.47    49.10    -0.96    40.86     3.86   -32.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.37R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.23     4.40   -17.46    27.29     3.62   -53.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.44  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.23    26.16   -14.63    22.20     3.76   -47.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.56  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.46    84.56    10.84    82.79     4.03    26.12    16.41    66.29    99.85    74.74P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.88    86.07     8.59    86.21     4.26    28.20    48.75    87.85    99.99    91.09P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.65    64.89     1.54    83.78     4.06    27.03    23.55    74.50    99.91    82.47P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.70    79.94     0.46    79.15     3.98    12.68     2.91    25.56    98.35    43.33P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.68    80.16    14.85    80.27     4.23    28.67     8.31    43.11    99.30    57.91P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.73    46.75     3.37    71.83     4.03    17.27     0.03     1.34    69.69    19.76P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.55    52.66     4.14    70.99     4.03    14.92     0.03     1.05    61.38    15.49P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.39    79.34     7.24    69.21     3.97     5.84     0.00     0.23    36.95     6.74P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.41    40.03    -4.32    67.56     3.99     5.85     0.00     0.06    24.89     6.46P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.06    67.25    10.29    61.06     3.92     0.93     0.00     0.00     1.39     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.74    38.20    -0.67    63.24     4.19     3.80     0.00     0.00     5.75     1.30P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.70    47.63     7.10    60.37     3.95     3.96     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.04    59.47     2.15    57.90     3.90    -8.03     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.70    38.71    -9.55    60.19     4.25    -9.64     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.09    50.99    -2.80    58.03     4.10    -9.13     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.30    56.58     1.86    55.46     3.89   -10.55     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.17    50.18     3.21    52.82     4.09   -12.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.63    35.08    -9.17    53.82     4.00   -17.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.73    20.29    -9.76    52.56     3.97   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.65    12.94   -11.54    53.25     4.06   -10.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.31     5.53   -11.24    52.78     4.30    -5.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.48    39.72     2.27    45.29     3.75   -19.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.55R    1.55  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.19    24.10    -6.00    41.31     3.80   -29.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.04R   12.04  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.88     1.36   -12.87    33.97     4.13   -28.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.35R   86.35  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.65    82.31    13.13    84.36     4.04    32.00    72.22    99.79    78.50P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.02    73.78     3.12    79.42     4.07    18.60    15.49    94.30    32.33P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.45    27.91    -1.56    77.30     3.76    28.00     6.87    90.58    35.23P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.89    34.03    -2.80    75.56     4.02    21.83     3.54    78.94    26.21P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.06    70.88     8.80    74.48     4.00    18.19     1.45    69.12    14.11P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.47    82.26     2.54    69.16     3.96    -0.57     0.05    15.22     2.29P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.45    83.20     4.63    65.62     3.42    -6.07     0.00     2.16     0.29P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.62    35.13     1.33    68.67     3.78    14.92     0.01    14.63     3.53P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.61    52.85     4.81    65.99     3.52     8.06     0.00     2.98     0.56P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       9.10    83.02     4.70    64.32     3.72    -7.61     0.00     1.24     0.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.48    52.20     1.79    70.12     4.52    11.51     0.37    26.35     5.96P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.10    54.83    -1.11    64.89     3.83    -0.08     0.00     1.91     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.14    41.55     2.38    64.80     3.82     7.76     0.00     2.21     0.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.72    38.97     3.83    62.08     3.78     6.64     0.00     0.38     0.06P    0.07R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.98    66.74     4.57    59.46     4.28    -8.70     0.00     0.19     0.04P    1.47R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.16    55.45     0.60    54.53     3.46   -13.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.59R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.24    51.81    -3.98    56.77     3.97   -14.34     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.24R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.23    28.34    -2.16    55.32     3.94    -5.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.06R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.30    22.23    -8.25    54.51     3.76   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.50R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.89    14.13    -6.36    55.28     4.00    -2.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.93R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.16    26.27   -12.52    49.80     3.42   -23.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.74R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.30    45.19     1.24    49.91     3.68   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.74R    0.02  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.07    11.40   -14.80    52.00     4.08   -15.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.64R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.58    22.55    -3.91    32.43     3.29   -41.12     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.96