Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 19 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.03    99.78     2.89   101.49     3.50    56.93   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.66    19.81    -5.16    80.18     3.52    54.13     0.00    98.85    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.62    67.67    15.36    68.30     3.99    34.30     0.00     1.09    77.60    92.81    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.17    38.83    -3.77    63.10     3.86    16.24     0.00     0.06    12.49    53.06    91.08     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.95    30.14     0.49    61.30     3.91    19.96     0.00     0.01     7.77    35.66    83.73     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.19    66.10     7.57    56.37     4.03     8.53     0.00     0.00     0.57     5.15    34.17     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.49    83.93     9.57    55.14     4.16     3.00     0.00     0.00     0.57     3.70    22.84     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.54    13.61    -7.85    56.86     4.04    12.31     0.00     0.00     0.79     7.10    42.86     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.18    25.17    -5.98    54.85     4.12     5.45     0.00     0.00     0.24     2.39    21.91     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.60    77.15     3.91    49.35     3.69    -9.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.21     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.48    63.26    -0.95    48.83     3.74    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.13     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.51    47.91    -4.25    49.26     3.93    -9.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.48     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.55    64.32    -5.17    45.11     3.72   -19.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.96R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       2.97    66.14    -1.33    43.75     3.80   -21.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.35R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.73    36.33     4.64    37.73     3.64   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.46R    1.65  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.07    21.09    -2.53    38.59     3.93   -16.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.14R    2.05  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.50    27.71    -3.13    36.90     3.76   -21.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.66R    4.25  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.67    27.13    -3.60    35.97     3.67   -24.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.75R    5.15  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.63    42.31     0.38    34.01     3.90   -30.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.83R   16.11  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.89    30.47    -1.09    29.45     3.63   -34.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.80R   70.76  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.82    80.31     7.85    86.90     3.97    31.33    51.56    94.17   100.00    95.99P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.77    65.40     3.40    86.22     4.00    33.02    46.35    91.50    99.99    94.39P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.45    71.80     2.43    76.99     4.05    14.95     1.36     7.85    95.32    29.49P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.82    29.99     9.82    75.72     3.98    36.08     0.67     5.38    93.38    37.92P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.06    74.46     5.13    73.37     4.04    11.54     0.06     0.99    78.44    16.89P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.91    62.37     1.48    68.81     4.07     5.67     0.01     0.05    35.77     7.07P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.04    67.07    -2.18    67.49     4.04    -1.75     0.00     0.01    22.35     3.87P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.01    71.03     5.96    66.87     4.05     4.85     0.00     0.01    19.70     3.41P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.11    49.85    -2.95    66.84     4.07     2.82     0.00     0.02    19.97     4.25P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.39    52.08     4.29    65.57     4.06     7.33     0.00     0.01    14.27     2.73P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1      -0.01    50.26    -2.34    65.88     4.01     1.95     0.00     0.01    13.51     2.70P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.19    32.99    -6.65    62.73     4.00    -0.90     0.00     0.00     3.96     0.82P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.17    67.91     4.46    61.59     4.05    -5.37     0.00     0.00     1.60     0.20P    0.08R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.19    51.14     7.92    60.04     3.99     3.64     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.13P    0.15R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.49    43.86    -1.28    59.63     3.99    -4.03     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.11P    0.23R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.27    55.97    -1.35    58.18     3.95   -10.90     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    1.16R    0.00  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.90    22.78    -3.42    53.48     3.93    -7.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.05R    0.54  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.33    45.03    -2.00    52.70     3.93   -15.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.85R    1.10  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.77    16.30    -9.39    53.28     3.99    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   11.69R    0.49  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.37    35.79    -3.16    52.48     3.99   -13.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.34R    1.26  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.57    31.71    -5.29    52.40     3.98   -15.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.39R    1.51  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.75    30.87     0.24    49.43     3.92   -12.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.18R    4.82  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.06    37.68    -6.87    44.97     3.95   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.62R   41.68  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.73    20.05    -6.11    43.93     3.87   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.25R   48.60  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.68    95.78     9.30    82.11     4.26    20.09    56.01    75.35    98.16    79.67P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.86    58.05     4.07    78.00     3.97    28.89    17.36    42.52    89.86    55.75P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.89    66.90    11.41    75.72     3.99    29.19     8.16    22.15    78.94    35.79P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.64    52.55    -0.44    74.37     3.97    20.04     3.50    11.87    64.98    26.27P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.16    75.79     4.23    74.92     3.90    17.07     4.12    13.80    69.48    25.48P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.19    44.50     8.47    75.92     3.82    35.33     8.22    23.60    82.90    40.81P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.78    33.13    -4.24    72.52     3.72    19.77     0.93     4.44    47.24    17.75P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.95    93.31     5.92    72.06     4.22     4.09     1.38     4.66    38.31     9.25P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.22    39.87     3.44    69.63     4.20    20.92     0.33     1.59    23.95     7.71P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.45    35.44     0.99    66.06     3.61    14.80     0.00     0.01     3.70     1.02P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       2.01    59.41     6.21    64.73     3.93    10.06     0.00     0.02     2.27     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -3.01    36.80    -4.42    60.57     4.04     0.39     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.99    32.93    -0.79    56.75     3.93     0.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.79    54.14    -5.73    55.24     3.79   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.18    40.92     3.72    54.87     4.01    -1.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.73    42.30    -6.07    53.64     4.03   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.58    34.62     1.20    50.39     3.87    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.82R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.58    30.73    -1.70    47.19     3.84   -14.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.04R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.82    46.95    -1.44    48.29     4.11   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.85R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.92    28.66    -0.95    45.41     3.81   -15.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.73R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.48    49.17    -0.93    40.87     3.86   -32.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.38R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.42     4.38   -17.79    27.32     3.62   -53.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.20  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.09    26.85   -14.46    22.18     3.76   -47.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.80  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.26    84.06    10.58    82.82     4.03    26.19    16.79    66.83    99.88    74.98P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.69    85.61     8.29    86.26     4.26    28.29    48.98    88.07    99.99    91.30P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.63    64.86     1.56    83.78     4.07    27.04    23.29    74.73    99.91    82.83P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.84    80.26     0.64    79.11     3.96    12.62     2.77    25.16    98.41    43.02P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.91    80.86    15.14    80.21     4.22    28.59     8.12    42.62    99.38    57.34P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.80    46.45     3.22    71.89     4.05    17.33     0.03     1.40    70.14    20.40P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.47    51.99     4.05    71.01     4.02    14.96     0.02     0.94    61.50    15.24P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.38    79.21     7.26    69.16     3.98     5.78     0.00     0.19    36.13     6.38P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.57    39.45    -4.53    67.60     4.03     5.90     0.00     0.05    25.57     6.62P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.28    68.19    10.52    61.01     3.90     0.88     0.00     0.00     1.13     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.48    39.68    -0.21    63.16     4.17     3.71     0.00     0.01     5.41     1.23P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.66    47.62     7.13    60.38     3.93     3.98     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.95    59.40     1.96    57.92     3.89    -8.02     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.51    39.70    -9.24    60.10     4.25    -9.76     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.10    50.29    -2.99    58.06     4.11    -9.07     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.32    56.72     1.89    55.42     3.89   -10.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.13    50.21     3.24    52.85     4.11   -12.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.65    34.94    -9.15    53.83     3.98   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.93    19.52   -10.04    52.66     3.98   -14.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.75    12.63   -11.74    53.25     4.05   -10.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.12     5.83   -10.97    52.74     4.27    -5.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.57    39.12     2.11    45.32     3.75   -19.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.43R    1.43  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.07    24.57    -5.77    41.30     3.79   -29.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.89R   11.89  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.94     1.27   -12.96    33.96     4.12   -28.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.64R   86.64  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.70    82.43    13.22    84.36     4.03    32.03    72.15    99.78    78.61P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.12    74.12     3.28    79.41     4.06    18.56    15.64    94.45    32.47P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.34    28.44    -1.43    77.27     3.77    27.98     6.84    90.76    35.58P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.76    34.16    -2.61    75.51     4.05    21.75     3.63    78.73    25.82P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.45    72.33     9.29    74.35     4.03    18.01     1.33    68.37    14.02P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.70    82.88     2.86    69.12     3.94    -0.61     0.07    15.23     2.21P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.52    83.62     4.71    65.60     3.45    -6.07     0.00     2.37     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.79    34.54     1.15    68.67     3.76    14.92     0.01    14.98     3.50P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.58    52.54     4.78    65.98     3.51     8.07     0.00     2.84     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.92    82.30     4.44    64.31     3.72    -7.60     0.00     1.24     0.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.66    52.86     2.02    70.09     4.52    11.46     0.32    26.49     5.96P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.27    55.67    -0.78    64.78     3.82    -0.25     0.00     1.86     0.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.26    40.84     2.11    64.86     3.79     7.83     0.00     2.36     0.39P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.00    37.83     3.52    62.12     3.77     6.71     0.00     0.34     0.07P    0.07R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.24    68.13     4.98    59.48     4.26    -8.70     0.00     0.20     0.02P    1.49R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.06    55.19     0.42    54.53     3.43   -13.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.69R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.23    51.50    -4.01    56.83     3.97   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00P    5.15R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.41    28.18    -2.39    55.40     3.92    -5.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.77R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.29    22.22    -8.28    54.54     3.76   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.29R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.95    14.05    -6.48    55.33     4.00    -2.90     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.94R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.30    25.49   -12.66    49.81     3.41   -23.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.84R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.46    44.44     1.00    49.91     3.66   -17.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.91R    0.02  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.13    11.38   -14.85    52.01     4.10   -15.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.84R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.86    21.68    -4.31    32.49     3.33   -41.01     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.94