Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 18 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      16.99    99.73     2.81   101.49     3.49    56.95   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.56    20.00    -5.06    80.19     3.51    54.13     0.00    98.75    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.59    67.69    15.30    68.29     4.01    34.32     0.00     1.19    77.47    93.04    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.12    39.02    -3.72    63.13     3.86    16.26     0.00     0.05    12.82    53.70    91.01     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.86    30.79     0.59    61.26     3.87    19.96     0.00     0.01     7.54    34.66    83.87     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.17    66.17     7.56    56.37     4.03     8.52     0.00     0.00     0.51     5.20    34.22     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.44    83.79     9.50    55.20     4.15     3.06     0.00     0.00     0.59     3.79    23.51     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.68    12.83    -8.00    56.87     4.04    12.34     0.00     0.00     0.85     7.16    42.65     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.09    25.32    -5.81    54.79     4.10     5.35     0.00     0.00     0.25     2.32    21.25     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.60    77.36     3.88    49.30     3.69    -9.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.12     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.39    62.90    -1.08    48.90     3.76    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.22     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.56    47.74    -4.30    49.25     3.90    -9.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.58     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.60    64.41    -5.08    45.12     3.73   -19.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.05R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.05    66.37    -1.22    43.76     3.81   -21.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.30R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.82    36.02     4.44    37.77     3.64   -13.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.53R    1.67  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.11    21.25    -2.54    38.57     3.94   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.02R    2.01  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.60    27.40    -3.36    36.90     3.73   -21.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.56R    4.00  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.46    28.18    -3.25    35.90     3.68   -24.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.49R    5.38  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.35    43.84     0.84    33.93     3.90   -30.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.51R   16.70  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.08    29.32    -1.51    29.52     3.64   -34.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.50R   70.20  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.89    80.16     7.93    86.87     3.93    31.29    51.54    93.88   100.00    95.75P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.60    64.85     3.22    86.21     4.00    33.05    46.41    91.45   100.00    94.50P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.46    71.68     2.43    76.96     4.06    14.92     1.33     7.76    95.11    29.33P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.90    29.46     9.65    75.78     3.98    36.17     0.63     5.81    93.35    38.11P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.10    74.64     5.12    73.42     4.05    11.61     0.09     1.04    78.74    17.00P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.97    62.61     1.55    68.81     4.07     5.66     0.00     0.03    35.95     6.96P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.06    67.00    -2.14    67.49     4.06    -1.75     0.00     0.01    22.27     3.89P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.36    72.26     6.44    66.77     4.06     4.70     0.00     0.00    19.21     3.29P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.28    48.85    -3.17    66.92     4.05     2.90     0.00     0.02    20.44     4.43P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.25    51.38     4.07    65.55     4.09     7.31     0.00     0.00    14.48     2.72P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.22    51.28    -2.03    65.83     4.00     1.87     0.00     0.01    13.20     2.67P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.98    33.68    -6.31    62.71     4.01    -0.97     0.00     0.00     3.84     0.83P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.10    67.64     4.40    61.60     4.03    -5.38     0.00     0.00     1.67     0.23P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.11    50.88     7.84    60.09     3.99     3.70     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.15P    0.18R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.61    43.40    -1.43    59.64     4.02    -4.03     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.12P    0.21R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.32    56.35    -1.26    58.15     3.97   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    1.28R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.65    23.74    -3.03    53.43     3.95    -7.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.21R    0.58  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.47    44.51    -2.22    52.70     3.94   -15.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.88R    1.12  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.95    16.13    -9.64    53.33     4.01    -9.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.57R    0.56  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.44    35.67    -3.28    52.53     3.97   -13.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.67R    1.31  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.63    31.34    -5.31    52.45     4.01   -15.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.12R    1.49  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.68    31.03     0.29    49.38     3.90   -13.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.95R    4.72  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.10    37.72    -6.96    44.96     3.95   -32.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.78R   41.36  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.78    20.02    -6.19    43.91     3.90   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.08R   48.84  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.63    95.74     9.30    82.13     4.24    20.13    56.04    75.60    98.28    80.05P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.78    57.53     3.97    78.01     3.97    28.89    17.23    42.24    89.93    55.29P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.89    66.81    11.49    75.74     3.97    29.19     8.17    22.34    79.20    35.95P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.60    52.59    -0.47    74.37     3.98    20.05     3.60    11.94    65.15    26.28P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.19    75.91     4.29    74.91     3.93    17.03     4.14    13.60    69.37    25.70P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.33    43.76     8.25    75.92     3.81    35.34     8.26    23.95    83.10    41.16P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.74    33.23    -4.11    72.50     3.74    19.74     0.97     4.35    47.31    17.56P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.14    93.81     6.19    71.99     4.22     4.02     1.31     4.48    37.56     9.12P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.29    39.34     3.30    69.62     4.18    20.93     0.28     1.47    23.96     7.41P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.25    36.43     1.26    66.03     3.63    14.76     0.00     0.01     3.58     0.92P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       2.02    59.50     6.23    64.72     3.94    10.03     0.00     0.02     2.35     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.95    37.20    -4.33    60.60     4.06     0.42     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.86    32.97    -0.63    56.72     3.91     0.16     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.64    53.49    -5.97    55.29     3.79   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.33    40.03     3.48    54.91     4.00    -1.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.64    42.74    -5.94    53.64     4.03   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.42    35.18     1.48    50.34     3.85    -9.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.81R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.63    30.27    -1.74    47.19     3.83   -14.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.33R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.76    47.48    -1.34    48.27     4.14   -20.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.10R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.91    28.59    -0.94    45.45     3.80   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.63R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.67    48.03    -1.35    40.91     3.86   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.93R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.37     4.42   -17.76    27.27     3.63   -53.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.79  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.21    26.36   -14.66    22.20     3.76   -47.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.21  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.16    83.87    10.40    82.86     4.05    26.22    17.09    67.00    99.88    75.23P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.75    85.76     8.30    86.22     4.29    28.24    48.56    87.92    99.99    91.20P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.69    65.20     1.65    83.73     4.07    27.00    22.91    74.20    99.91    82.58P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.74    79.83     0.46    79.13     3.98    12.65     2.94    25.50    98.45    43.25P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.84    80.73    15.03    80.23     4.22    28.62     8.41    42.86    99.45    57.54P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.82    46.29     3.26    71.88     4.02    17.30     0.04     1.32    70.13    20.13P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.65    52.91     4.35    70.98     4.03    14.92     0.03     0.94    61.06    15.33P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.36    79.33     7.20    69.19     3.97     5.82     0.00     0.19    36.51     6.48P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.29    40.37    -4.13    67.54     4.00     5.81     0.00     0.05    25.16     6.37P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.12    67.73    10.34    61.01     3.94     0.88     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.68    38.70    -0.52    63.23     4.19     3.79     0.00     0.00     5.60     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.56    48.08     7.28    60.38     3.93     3.98     0.00     0.00     1.08     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.97    59.38     2.04    57.93     3.89    -8.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.75    38.53    -9.64    60.20     4.27    -9.62     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.06    50.69    -2.76    58.01     4.11    -9.16     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.23    56.37     1.72    55.45     3.91   -10.55     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.24    49.59     3.14    52.86     4.12   -12.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.61    35.16    -9.12    53.83     3.98   -17.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -8.01    19.59   -10.08    52.61     3.99   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.65    12.90   -11.61    53.27     4.04   -10.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.15     5.95   -11.04    52.76     4.31    -5.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.39    39.74     2.48    45.27     3.74   -19.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.53R    1.53  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.14    24.33    -5.87    41.31     3.80   -29.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.15R   12.15  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.87     1.37   -12.88    33.95     4.15   -28.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.30R   86.30  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.82    82.69    13.39    84.35     4.05    31.99    72.06    99.79    78.56P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.14    74.14     3.19    79.41     4.06    18.59    15.43    94.50    32.33P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.58    27.67    -1.78    77.28     3.77    27.99     7.12    90.67    36.22P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.73    34.59    -2.51    75.51     4.03    21.71     3.52    78.73    25.43P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.22    71.40     9.00    74.45     4.02    18.14     1.41    69.23    14.33P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.53    82.49     2.64    69.16     3.95    -0.54     0.07    15.47     2.30P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.44    83.57     4.59    65.63     3.45    -6.02     0.00     2.34     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.48    35.65     1.53    68.59     3.75    14.79     0.01    14.21     3.20P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.65    52.98     4.88    65.96     3.52     8.03     0.00     2.96     0.54P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.97    82.58     4.51    64.36     3.72    -7.56     0.00     1.32     0.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.50    52.72     1.80    70.10     4.51    11.49     0.39    26.21     5.83P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.35    56.27    -0.70    64.80     3.82    -0.23     0.00     1.79     0.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -1.87    42.65     2.74    64.75     3.81     7.66     0.00     2.16     0.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.04    37.83     3.46    62.13     3.77     6.72     0.00     0.41     0.06P    0.05R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.09    67.48     4.77    59.48     4.26    -8.67     0.00     0.21     0.03P    1.47R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.03    55.20     0.30    54.56     3.44   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.57R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.15    51.27    -4.19    56.80     3.98   -14.25     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.19R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.33    28.27    -2.27    55.38     3.92    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.79R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.19    22.78    -8.09    54.50     3.77   -10.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.62R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.12    13.54    -6.70    55.32     3.97    -2.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.76R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.24    25.52   -12.61    49.83     3.40   -23.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.36R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.46    44.37     1.02    49.94     3.67   -17.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.62R    0.04  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.92    11.74   -14.50    51.95     4.08   -15.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.57R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.93    21.45    -4.48    32.49     3.32   -41.02     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.93