Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 17 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.03    99.78     2.92   101.44     3.51    56.86   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.68    19.59    -5.26    80.23     3.50    54.21     0.00    98.79    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.46    67.14    15.10    68.30     4.00    34.33     0.00     1.15    77.48    93.02    99.51     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.14    38.93    -3.79    63.11     3.86    16.25     0.00     0.05    12.57    53.09    91.08     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.92    30.55     0.54    61.32     3.89    20.02     0.00     0.00     7.85    35.71    83.92     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.25    66.66     7.64    56.35     4.01     8.50     0.00     0.00     0.52     4.99    33.96     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.42    83.74     9.45    55.22     4.15     3.08     0.00     0.00     0.54     3.74    23.45     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.54    13.41    -7.87    56.85     4.04    12.29     0.00     0.00     0.79     6.92    42.37     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.05    25.93    -5.80    54.85     4.12     5.45     0.00     0.00     0.29     2.41    21.82     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.54    76.99     3.80    49.34     3.70    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.18     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.40    62.91    -1.06    48.88     3.76    -9.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.13     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.61    47.36    -4.36    49.24     3.90    -9.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.51     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.58    64.28    -5.13    45.14     3.72   -19.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.01R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.05    66.75    -1.19    43.69     3.81   -21.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.47R    0.02  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.86    35.69     4.48    37.73     3.64   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.82R    1.76  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.08    21.13    -2.54    38.56     3.92   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.94R    1.97  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.42    28.18    -3.00    36.84     3.73   -21.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.20R    3.93  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.56    27.78    -3.39    35.93     3.66   -24.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.01R    5.26  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.48    43.48     0.71    33.99     3.92   -30.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.72R   16.08  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.93    30.07    -1.25    29.45     3.62   -34.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.77R   70.98  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.95    80.47     8.02    86.83     3.93    31.25    51.29    93.74   100.00    95.67P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.70    65.10     3.34    86.22     3.99    33.04    46.57    91.54   100.00    94.38P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.23    70.95     2.05    77.06     4.06    15.06     1.35     7.90    95.23    29.94P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -5.03    29.14     9.44    75.78     4.01    36.18     0.72     5.72    93.44    37.79P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.10    74.69     5.08    73.43     4.04    11.62     0.07     1.00    78.98    17.09P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.89    62.21     1.45    68.79     4.07     5.63     0.00     0.05    35.95     7.05P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.02    66.91    -2.21    67.47     4.04    -1.76     0.00     0.01    22.31     3.96P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.40    72.44     6.52    66.78     4.04     4.71     0.00     0.01    19.06     3.32P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.04    50.09    -2.86    66.83     4.08     2.79     0.00     0.02    19.98     4.19P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.29    51.47     4.19    65.61     4.06     7.39     0.00     0.01    14.63     2.68P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1      -0.03    50.02    -2.35    65.85     4.00     1.93     0.00     0.01    13.21     2.57P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.09    33.42    -6.54    62.73     4.01    -0.91     0.00     0.00     3.91     0.88P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.19    67.98     4.46    61.54     3.99    -5.45     0.00     0.00     1.50     0.19P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.20    51.26     8.02    60.06     4.03     3.66     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.17P    0.16R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.79    42.81    -1.64    59.66     4.01    -4.00     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.09P    0.21R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.14    55.55    -1.55    58.21     3.98   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02P    1.18R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.81    23.20    -3.26    53.48     3.95    -7.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.07R    0.56  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.33    45.02    -1.99    52.70     3.95   -15.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.01R    1.00  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.84    16.32    -9.54    53.31     3.98    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.42R    0.43  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.32    36.23    -3.10    52.46     3.98   -13.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.15R    1.33  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.69    31.23    -5.40    52.46     3.99   -15.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.95R    1.46  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.61    31.33     0.49    49.36     3.89   -13.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.66R    4.71  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.98    37.94    -6.70    44.92     3.95   -32.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.90R   41.59  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.66    20.39    -5.93    43.90     3.89   -23.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.22R   48.90  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.65    95.75     9.27    82.09     4.22    20.07    56.13    75.51    98.23    79.92P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.09    58.78     4.42    77.96     4.01    28.81    17.27    41.87    89.35    54.97P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.73    66.33    11.22    75.74     3.94    29.23     7.76    22.21    79.39    36.10P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.61    52.61    -0.50    74.36     3.97    20.05     3.56    11.84    65.10    26.45P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.33    76.33     4.54    74.87     3.93    16.96     4.16    13.66    69.08    25.46P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.33    43.65     8.28    75.93     3.83    35.36     8.43    24.15    82.94    41.40P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.54    34.01    -3.83    72.45     3.72    19.69     0.89     4.39    46.58    17.27P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.87    93.15     5.82    72.09     4.27     4.12     1.48     4.80    38.75     9.48P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.27    39.66     3.33    69.62     4.20    20.88     0.30     1.53    24.11     7.39P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.43    35.19     0.96    66.11     3.62    14.85     0.00     0.02     3.78     1.03P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.96    59.19     6.16    64.78     3.96    10.11     0.00     0.02     2.51     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.79    37.93    -4.07    60.50     4.04     0.29     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -4.07    32.45    -0.87    56.77     3.91     0.24     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.91    54.80    -5.56    55.24     3.80   -14.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.32    40.23     3.57    54.88     4.05    -1.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.81    42.19    -6.25    53.71     4.02   -12.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.58    34.59     1.19    50.37     3.87    -9.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.94R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.55    30.45    -1.62    47.17     3.85   -14.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.35R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.80    47.01    -1.47    48.29     4.12   -20.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.08R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -5.01    27.79    -1.18    45.40     3.80   -15.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.53R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.58    48.28    -1.16    40.94     3.87   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.88R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.29     4.42   -17.63    27.28     3.60   -53.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   20.49  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.22    26.04   -14.63    22.19     3.72   -47.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.51  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.31    83.89    10.68    82.78     4.05    26.11    16.60    66.73    99.86    75.14P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.84    86.16     8.47    86.24     4.25    28.24    48.92    88.06    99.99    91.47P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.61    64.77     1.54    83.75     4.07    27.02    23.18    74.39    99.91    82.57P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.86    80.01     0.62    79.09     3.99    12.61     2.91    25.31    98.28    43.02P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.88    80.78    15.04    80.21     4.24    28.61     8.35    42.86    99.30    57.18P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -1.02    45.43     2.97    71.92     4.02    17.38     0.03     1.41    70.42    20.12P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.40    51.73     3.93    71.05     4.04    15.01     0.01     1.00    61.71    15.77P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.34    79.19     7.21    69.20     3.97     5.83     0.00     0.19    36.70     6.61P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.28    40.67    -4.14    67.54     4.00     5.80     0.00     0.05    24.78     6.29P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.16    67.98    10.35    61.04     3.92     0.92     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.47    39.50    -0.23    63.18     4.17     3.72     0.00     0.00     5.38     1.17P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.71    47.52     7.05    60.38     3.94     3.99     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.95    59.28     2.04    57.92     3.92    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.73    38.95    -9.55    60.11     4.25    -9.72     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.10    51.08    -2.71    58.00     4.12    -9.20     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.15    55.63     1.63    55.50     3.91   -10.48     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.22    49.93     3.17    52.84     4.09   -12.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.68    34.81    -9.22    53.84     3.98   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.75    20.11    -9.79    52.59     3.97   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.66    12.94   -11.53    53.26     4.04   -10.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.28     5.54   -11.23    52.78     4.28    -5.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.52    39.33     2.18    45.35     3.73   -19.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.46R    1.46  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.09    24.38    -5.84    41.30     3.78   -29.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.02R   12.02  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.75     1.40   -12.65    33.93     4.16   -28.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.49R   86.49  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.60    82.39    13.09    84.41     4.04    32.08    72.37    99.80    78.72P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.16    74.16     3.33    79.40     4.08    18.56    15.39    94.35    32.16P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.56    27.78    -1.71    77.30     3.78    28.03     6.96    90.54    36.05P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.46    35.42    -2.16    75.46     4.05    21.66     3.45    78.35    25.20P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.29    71.52     9.13    74.40     4.04    18.10     1.43    68.69    14.15P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.45    82.30     2.51    69.19     3.94    -0.51     0.06    15.63     2.24P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.60    83.76     4.79    65.65     3.45    -6.03     0.00     2.43     0.38P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.55    35.45     1.47    68.60     3.78    14.82     0.02    14.47     3.45P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.57    52.73     4.76    65.96     3.49     8.04     0.00     2.84     0.53P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.99    82.89     4.47    64.33     3.72    -7.59     0.00     1.33     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.24    51.24     1.42    70.15     4.54    11.59     0.32    27.06     6.12P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.31    55.87    -0.80    64.81     3.80    -0.21     0.00     1.78     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.05    41.86     2.51    64.77     3.82     7.72     0.00     2.12     0.44P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.06    37.61     3.37    62.13     3.79     6.71     0.00     0.38     0.08P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.09    67.25     4.77    59.49     4.29    -8.68     0.00     0.22     0.03P    1.53R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       0.99    54.96     0.23    54.55     3.44   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.38R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.19    51.39    -4.05    56.80     3.97   -14.28     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.14R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.29    28.69    -2.25    55.33     3.94    -5.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.08R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.19    22.58    -8.09    54.50     3.76   -10.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.42R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.86    14.06    -6.35    55.28     4.01    -2.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.03R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.35    25.37   -12.77    49.86     3.41   -23.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.20R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.29    45.29     1.21    49.91     3.66   -17.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.17R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.02    11.69   -14.69    52.00     4.08   -15.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.97R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.74    22.22    -4.17    32.45     3.30   -41.07     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.94