Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 16 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      16.99    99.80     2.79   101.48     3.49    56.92   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.62    19.88    -5.16    80.19     3.53    54.15     0.00    98.81    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.46    67.12    15.09    68.34     4.00    34.36     0.00     1.13    77.83    92.98    99.54     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.26    38.35    -3.92    63.12     3.84    16.29     0.00     0.05    12.43    53.50    91.17     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.72    31.32     0.83    61.29     3.90    19.98     0.00     0.00     7.64    35.38    83.65     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.12    66.08     7.47    56.38     4.02     8.54     0.00     0.00     0.50     5.04    34.29     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.63    84.23     9.79    55.11     4.16     2.93     0.00     0.00     0.56     3.59    22.50     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.66    13.02    -7.99    56.89     4.04    12.33     0.00     0.00     0.82     7.10    42.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.09    25.71    -5.79    54.82     4.11     5.41     0.00     0.00     0.23     2.29    21.75     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.60    77.35     3.88    49.34     3.72    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.25     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.43    63.08    -1.02    48.85     3.79    -9.78     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     1.20     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.70    46.84    -4.49    49.27     3.92    -9.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.55     0.01R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.58    64.42    -5.15    45.16     3.70   -19.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.98R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.04    66.32    -1.22    43.71     3.82   -21.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.40R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.77    36.35     4.58    37.77     3.65   -13.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.71R    1.70  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.16    20.92    -2.65    38.59     3.94   -16.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.93R    1.91  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.45    28.16    -3.04    36.85     3.76   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.52R    3.98  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.63    27.53    -3.53    35.95     3.67   -24.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.64R    4.97  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.48    43.29     0.69    33.97     3.90   -30.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.14R   16.31  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.90    30.32    -1.16    29.44     3.63   -34.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.63R   71.09  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.49    79.28     7.42    86.95     3.95    31.37    51.69    94.16   100.00    96.10P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.50    64.21     3.00    86.28     3.99    33.13    46.28    91.65   100.00    94.48P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.32    70.94     2.21    76.97     4.05    14.97     1.31     7.64    95.15    29.82P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.90    29.34     9.64    75.77     3.99    36.16     0.66     5.49    93.42    37.35P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.13    74.46     5.21    73.42     4.03    11.60     0.07     0.98    78.89    17.00P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.95    62.49     1.53    68.79     4.06     5.63     0.00     0.04    35.97     7.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.06    67.01    -2.09    67.44     4.06    -1.80     0.00     0.02    22.32     3.87P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.20    71.84     6.20    66.83     4.04     4.79     0.00     0.01    19.45     3.24P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.08    49.95    -2.91    66.83     4.08     2.79     0.00     0.01    19.91     4.20P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.31    51.56     4.21    65.57     4.08     7.36     0.00     0.00    14.31     2.77P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.09    50.87    -2.22    65.85     4.01     1.92     0.00     0.01    13.33     2.75P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.87    33.81    -6.20    62.69     4.01    -0.99     0.00     0.00     3.84     0.84P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.23    67.95     4.53    61.54     4.02    -5.47     0.00     0.00     1.60     0.19P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.18    51.52     7.92    60.09     3.98     3.69     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.17P    0.17R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.71    43.26    -1.58    59.64     4.01    -4.02     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.13P    0.23R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.21    56.00    -1.45    58.19     3.95   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    1.17R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.65    23.81    -3.02    53.45     3.95    -7.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.28R    0.54  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.19    45.54    -1.79    52.66     3.93   -15.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.08R    1.08  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.89    16.19    -9.56    53.35     3.99    -9.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.42R    0.48  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.33    35.96    -3.10    52.53     3.98   -13.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.61R    1.27  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.60    31.48    -5.28    52.44     4.01   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.05R    1.50  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.64    31.28     0.41    49.36     3.91   -13.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.83R    4.85  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.03    37.47    -6.85    44.94     3.93   -32.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.86R   41.61  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.82    19.72    -6.25    43.91     3.89   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.21R   48.66  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.73    95.80     9.39    82.09     4.25    20.06    55.74    75.08    98.16    79.71P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.91    58.30     4.15    78.00     3.96    28.87    17.44    42.38    89.83    55.83P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.81    66.50    11.29    75.72     3.96    29.17     7.96    22.18    79.20    35.71P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.61    52.34    -0.48    74.36     3.97    20.06     3.63    11.95    64.98    26.08P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.10    75.82     4.16    74.95     3.91    17.10     4.29    14.00    69.56    26.01P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.21    44.44     8.44    75.91     3.82    35.31     8.37    23.65    82.99    40.79P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.74    33.52    -4.14    72.45     3.71    19.69     0.81     4.15    46.84    17.47P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.96    93.23     5.88    72.09     4.25     4.16     1.41     4.98    38.60     9.74P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.21    39.65     3.39    69.63     4.19    20.93     0.33     1.59    23.67     7.24P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.38    35.62     1.09    66.08     3.60    14.80     0.00     0.01     3.67     0.92P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.80    58.25     5.86    64.76     3.96    10.10     0.00     0.02     2.31     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.83    37.69    -4.15    60.56     4.02     0.32     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.95    32.78    -0.71    56.77     3.91     0.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.73    53.97    -5.82    55.28     3.83   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.47    39.39     3.25    54.94     4.03    -1.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.74    42.19    -6.10    53.69     4.05   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.60    34.16     1.13    50.38     3.86    -9.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.80R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.55    30.63    -1.52    47.16     3.82   -14.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.17R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.61    48.00    -1.16    48.23     4.11   -20.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.05R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.79    29.04    -0.76    45.40     3.81   -15.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.69R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.51    48.85    -1.05    40.86     3.86   -32.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.07R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.21     4.47   -17.45    27.29     3.63   -53.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.39  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.24    26.23   -14.68    22.16     3.73   -47.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.60  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.21    83.94    10.53    82.76     4.04    26.08    16.36    66.42    99.85    74.58P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.90    86.09     8.58    86.17     4.26    28.17    48.28    87.50    99.99    90.95P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.57    64.48     1.49    83.80     4.09    27.07    24.02    74.79    99.91    82.83P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.88    80.51     0.70    79.16     3.99    12.69     2.96    26.08    98.32    43.90P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       8.03    81.05    15.31    80.18     4.24    28.54     8.31    42.53    99.30    56.83P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.95    45.84     3.11    71.86     4.04    17.30     0.03     1.38    70.11    20.14P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.48    52.14     4.09    71.02     4.03    14.95     0.04     1.01    61.39    15.75P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.34    79.05     7.14    69.18     3.96     5.80     0.00     0.22    36.32     6.59P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.43    39.80    -4.31    67.59     4.00     5.86     0.00     0.06    25.27     6.43P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.12    67.51    10.32    61.04     3.96     0.92     0.00     0.00     1.34     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.72    38.52    -0.56    63.24     4.18     3.80     0.00     0.00     5.70     1.28P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.67    47.47     7.15    60.42     3.95     4.03     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.85    58.85     1.88    57.92     3.88    -7.97     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.78    38.43    -9.67    60.18     4.26    -9.65     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.03    50.70    -2.91    58.03     4.09    -9.11     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.26    56.41     1.81    55.44     3.89   -10.56     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.14    50.27     3.22    52.83     4.10   -12.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.74    34.53    -9.32    53.87     3.97   -17.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.80    19.91    -9.88    52.60     3.99   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.52    13.27   -11.30    53.21     4.02   -10.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.23     5.81   -11.15    52.78     4.29    -5.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.47    39.59     2.28    45.31     3.75   -19.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.44R    1.44  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.04    24.62    -5.76    41.28     3.81   -29.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.25R   12.25  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.78     1.39   -12.74    33.96     4.15   -28.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.26R   86.26  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.69    82.52    13.20    84.35     4.05    32.01    71.97    99.79    78.52P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.12    74.09     3.25    79.42     4.04    18.59    15.54    94.59    32.57P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.56    27.65    -1.67    77.30     3.79    28.02     7.14    90.87    36.21P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.61    35.12    -2.36    75.51     4.05    21.74     3.60    78.73    25.54P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.46    72.21     9.38    74.36     4.02    18.03     1.29    68.42    13.92P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.43    82.11     2.43    69.15     3.94    -0.56     0.08    15.49     2.33P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.59    83.79     4.79    65.62     3.43    -6.07     0.00     2.39     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.58    35.09     1.40    68.65     3.76    14.89     0.01    14.73     3.46P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.57    52.52     4.73    65.98     3.49     8.05     0.00     2.84     0.43P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       9.04    83.03     4.63    64.32     3.72    -7.63     0.00     1.33     0.15P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.55    52.32     1.92    70.06     4.54    11.44     0.36    26.22     5.80P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.22    55.49    -0.90    64.83     3.82    -0.17     0.00     1.80     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -1.88    42.59     2.72    64.75     3.81     7.66     0.00     2.11     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.00    37.91     3.46    62.14     3.81     6.73     0.00     0.44     0.08P    0.10R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.88    66.49     4.42    59.51     4.26    -8.62     0.00     0.25     0.02P    1.43R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.05    55.42     0.37    54.54     3.44   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.59R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.30    52.04    -3.88    56.74     3.95   -14.37     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.42R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.52    27.58    -2.57    55.42     3.95    -5.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.72R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.28    22.32    -8.24    54.51     3.77   -10.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.64R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.21    13.31    -6.85    55.35     4.01    -2.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.78R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.33    25.49   -12.71    49.83     3.39   -23.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.60R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.40    44.73     1.04    49.95     3.68   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.56R    0.02  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.95    11.76   -14.61    52.01     4.08   -15.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.18R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.59    22.62    -3.93    32.41     3.30   -41.12     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.94