Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 12 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.07    99.80     2.97   101.46     3.52    56.85   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.65    19.63    -5.23    80.20     3.50    54.13     0.00    98.80    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.62    67.68    15.35    68.25     4.01    34.26     0.00     1.13    77.37    92.95    99.44     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.05    39.52    -3.61    63.11     3.84    16.22     0.00     0.07    12.65    53.37    91.07     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.96    30.20     0.49    61.30     3.89    19.99     0.00     0.00     7.69    35.44    83.63     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.13    66.01     7.51    56.37     4.03     8.53     0.00     0.00     0.57     4.92    34.25     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.42    83.65     9.48    55.22     4.19     3.09     0.00     0.00     0.61     3.84    23.36     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.63    13.21    -7.94    56.87     4.03    12.31     0.00     0.00     0.87     6.96    42.38     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.18    25.14    -5.89    54.84     4.15     5.44     0.00     0.00     0.28     2.39    21.76     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.57    77.27     3.89    49.34     3.72    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.20     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.25    62.19    -1.31    48.92     3.78    -9.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.25     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.66    46.98    -4.48    49.31     3.93    -9.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.57     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.67    64.75    -5.07    45.15     3.70   -19.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.99R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       2.94    66.03    -1.41    43.73     3.81   -21.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.31R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.62    37.12     4.85    37.72     3.64   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.98R    1.72  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.09    21.59    -2.56    38.55     3.92   -16.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.63R    2.00  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.45    28.34    -3.09    36.85     3.75   -21.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.85R    4.07  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.63    27.59    -3.57    35.94     3.69   -24.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.92R    5.15  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.34    44.13     0.93    33.89     3.89   -30.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.83R   16.70  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.98    30.24    -1.31    29.49     3.64   -34.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.45R   70.33  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.73    79.80     7.67    86.87     3.96    31.33    51.63    93.82   100.00    95.74P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.65    64.98     3.31    86.22     3.99    33.05    46.23    91.49   100.00    94.34P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.43    71.42     2.34    76.98     4.06    14.94     1.37     7.91    95.29    29.86P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.99    29.59     9.56    75.73     4.00    36.10     0.67     5.56    93.34    37.52P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.06    74.46     5.08    73.46     4.04    11.65     0.09     1.14    78.99    17.24P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.83    62.23     1.35    68.84     4.06     5.70     0.00     0.04    35.82     6.95P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.09    67.04    -2.06    67.48     4.03    -1.74     0.00     0.01    21.98     3.77P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.00    71.26     5.94    66.85     4.05     4.82     0.00     0.00    19.82     3.45P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.15    49.53    -2.99    66.84     4.07     2.81     0.00     0.01    20.00     4.33P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.31    51.59     4.17    65.57     4.07     7.34     0.00     0.01    14.36     2.81P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.20    51.13    -2.07    65.81     4.01     1.85     0.00     0.00    13.08     2.62P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.95    33.71    -6.31    62.68     4.03    -0.99     0.00     0.00     3.91     0.84P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.02    66.98     4.24    61.61     4.03    -5.37     0.00     0.00     1.58     0.24P    0.08R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.16    51.23     7.87    60.09     4.01     3.70     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.15P    0.16R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.86    42.73    -1.80    59.71     4.01    -3.92     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.12P    0.25R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.57    57.70    -0.87    58.13     3.96   -10.97     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    1.16R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.60    23.75    -2.99    53.42     3.92    -7.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.19R    0.56  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.18    45.60    -1.78    52.67     3.92   -15.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.11R    1.14  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.89    16.26    -9.55    53.29     3.99    -9.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.74R    0.46  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.40    35.83    -3.24    52.53     3.98   -13.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.65R    1.29  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.66    31.39    -5.30    52.44     3.99   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   20.03R    1.60  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.77    30.80     0.17    49.41     3.91   -12.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.46R    4.57  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.99    38.16    -6.75    44.95     3.95   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.83R   41.36  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.66    20.45    -5.97    43.90     3.90   -23.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.33R   49.01  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.58    95.80     9.16    82.12     4.27    20.10    56.05    75.36    98.19    79.86P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.00    58.72     4.29    77.98     4.01    28.81    17.22    41.91    89.79    54.98P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.86    66.54    11.38    75.73     3.97    29.22     8.09    22.54    79.23    36.11P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.61    52.71    -0.48    74.36     3.96    20.04     3.53    12.18    65.20    26.66P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.13    75.55     4.19    74.90     3.91    17.04     4.31    13.71    69.46    25.60P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.04    45.00     8.78    75.86     3.84    35.22     8.35    23.76    82.51    40.84P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.69    33.50    -4.09    72.48     3.72    19.71     0.90     4.32    47.28    17.78P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.07    93.65     6.12    72.01     4.23     4.02     1.25     4.61    38.16     9.31P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.29    39.23     3.27    69.62     4.20    20.90     0.29     1.58    23.93     7.40P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.50    35.03     0.94    66.07     3.61    14.82     0.00     0.01     3.67     0.97P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.97    59.32     6.15    64.78     3.94    10.12     0.00     0.02     2.37     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.88    37.25    -4.23    60.57     4.04     0.37     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.89    33.06    -0.64    56.75     3.90     0.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.93    55.00    -5.50    55.23     3.82   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.46    39.88     3.27    54.92     4.03    -1.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.68    42.77    -6.04    53.68     4.02   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.44    35.22     1.36    50.35     3.84    -9.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.82R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.58    30.51    -1.69    47.21     3.84   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.15R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.79    47.18    -1.47    48.27     4.13   -20.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.93R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.95    28.46    -1.06    45.43     3.81   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.55R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.48    48.85    -0.97    40.88     3.83   -32.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.37R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.36     4.41   -17.71    27.28     3.61   -53.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   21.06  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.45    25.17   -15.02    22.26     3.77   -47.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   78.94  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.25    83.96    10.57    82.84     4.05    26.18    16.90    67.03    99.85    75.03P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.68    85.69     8.24    86.22     4.28    28.26    48.62    87.64    99.99    91.13P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.70    65.23     1.65    83.78     4.07    27.04    23.25    74.48    99.91    82.62P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.70    79.56     0.45    79.16     3.98    12.70     2.95    26.03    98.37    43.68P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.88    80.67    15.09    80.21     4.22    28.59     8.20    42.22    99.33    56.77P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.82    46.58     3.30    71.88     4.02    17.31     0.04     1.36    70.28    20.00P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.46    51.93     4.01    71.02     4.01    14.97     0.04     0.99    61.71    15.72P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.27    79.06     7.09    69.19     3.99     5.82     0.00     0.20    36.71     6.69P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.42    39.77    -4.33    67.56     4.00     5.83     0.00     0.06    24.80     6.38P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.12    67.67    10.29    61.01     3.92     0.90     0.00     0.00     1.22     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.60    39.01    -0.41    63.22     4.17     3.75     0.00     0.00     5.44     1.32P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.70    47.39     7.10    60.39     3.94     3.97     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.89    58.82     1.92    57.96     3.88    -7.94     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.34    40.31    -9.00    60.08     4.25    -9.79     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.00    50.64    -2.85    58.00     4.09    -9.18     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.16    56.03     1.60    55.49     3.89   -10.48     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.24    49.74     3.13    52.84     4.11   -12.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.85    34.20    -9.46    53.83     3.99   -17.77     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.75    20.25    -9.73    52.58     3.98   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.60    12.80   -11.46    53.19     4.04   -10.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.04     5.96   -10.86    52.78     4.30    -5.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.53    39.52     2.19    45.35     3.77   -19.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.42R    1.42  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -5.98    24.58    -5.69    41.26     3.78   -29.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.38R   12.38  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.84     1.32   -12.83    33.98     4.13   -28.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.15R   86.15  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.72    82.29    13.23    84.41     4.04    32.08    72.57    99.81    79.21P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.21    74.22     3.33    79.39     4.07    18.53    15.47    94.23    32.39P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.30    28.65    -1.35    77.24     3.77    27.93     6.80    90.42    35.43P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.65    34.89    -2.37    75.47     4.05    21.67     3.44    78.27    25.42P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.22    71.26     9.02    74.40     4.00    18.08     1.29    68.85    13.87P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.51    82.62     2.55    69.16     3.93    -0.55     0.08    15.45     2.36P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.69    83.88     4.93    65.63     3.43    -6.06     0.00     2.32     0.29P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.71    34.76     1.19    68.67     3.76    14.90     0.01    15.11     3.53P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.67    53.19     4.91    65.93     3.49     8.00     0.00     2.82     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       9.09    83.07     4.65    64.31     3.73    -7.63     0.00     1.30     0.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.48    52.22     1.78    70.11     4.54    11.51     0.36    26.59     5.99P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.26    55.51    -0.85    64.86     3.81    -0.14     0.00     1.91     0.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.08    41.66     2.46    64.80     3.82     7.74     0.00     2.28     0.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.04    37.80     3.44    62.14     3.77     6.72     0.00     0.38     0.06P    0.07R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.92    66.41     4.46    59.50     4.28    -8.65     0.00     0.23     0.04P    1.41R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       0.93    54.73     0.26    54.56     3.46   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.50R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.20    51.47    -4.05    56.77     3.96   -14.31     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.46R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.28    28.49    -2.20    55.36     3.93    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.97R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.25    22.25    -8.23    54.53     3.75   -10.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.38R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.96    13.81    -6.51    55.30     4.00    -2.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.06R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.32    25.41   -12.70    49.83     3.40   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.46R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.39    44.60     1.06    49.95     3.65   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.47R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.05    11.73   -14.78    52.01     4.08   -15.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.20R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.76    21.77    -4.23    32.43     3.30   -41.09     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.94