Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 11 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.11    99.80     3.04   101.44     3.50    56.86   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.65    19.57    -5.15    80.19     3.52    54.15     0.00    98.68    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.41    66.88    14.99    68.33     4.02    34.39     0.00     1.24    77.97    93.18    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.11    38.90    -3.67    63.07     3.84    16.18     0.00     0.07    12.19    52.99    90.87     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.73    31.45     0.79    61.27     3.91    19.95     0.00     0.01     7.71    35.06    83.45     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.13    66.03     7.45    56.41     4.04     8.58     0.00     0.00     0.58     5.49    34.57     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.35    83.64     9.30    55.23     4.18     3.13     0.00     0.00     0.54     3.76    23.40     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.54    13.38    -7.82    56.83     4.03    12.24     0.00     0.00     0.80     6.96    42.21     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.14    25.20    -5.92    54.87     4.12     5.51     0.00     0.00     0.25     2.45    22.02     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.53    76.93     3.79    49.33     3.70    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.08     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.21    62.15    -1.37    48.91     3.76    -9.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.25     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.47    48.06    -4.16    49.22     3.93    -9.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.56     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.67    64.64    -5.01    45.14     3.74   -19.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.05R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.04    66.47    -1.22    43.70     3.80   -21.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.33R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.67    36.59     4.68    37.72     3.67   -13.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.19R    1.76  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.19    21.12    -2.68    38.59     3.94   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.03R    1.99  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.41    28.27    -3.01    36.84     3.76   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.27R    4.30  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.63    27.73    -3.49    35.92     3.66   -24.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.62R    5.17  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.44    43.56     0.75    33.98     3.90   -30.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.05R   16.37  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.99    29.83    -1.28    29.51     3.66   -34.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.41R   70.36  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.80    80.19     7.83    86.89     3.95    31.30    51.55    93.99   100.00    95.89P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.72    65.36     3.35    86.25     4.00    33.07    46.42    91.34   100.00    94.24P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.44    71.61     2.38    77.01     4.05    14.99     1.31     7.79    95.39    29.71P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.85    29.78     9.70    75.73     4.01    36.09     0.65     5.72    93.17    37.71P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.22    74.98     5.34    73.38     4.05    11.53     0.07     1.07    78.33    16.71P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.79    62.15     1.30    68.86     4.05     5.75     0.00     0.04    36.32     7.17P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.17    67.39    -1.97    67.42     4.06    -1.84     0.00     0.01    22.03     3.82P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.02    71.48     5.97    66.86     4.04     4.82     0.00     0.00    19.62     3.33P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2       0.01    50.46    -2.79    66.84     4.06     2.78     0.00     0.02    19.75     4.32P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.26    51.34     4.07    65.62     4.09     7.40     0.00     0.00    14.82     2.90P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.12    50.59    -2.15    65.83     4.02     1.88     0.00     0.00    13.21     2.74P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.04    33.43    -6.44    62.73     4.01    -0.91     0.00     0.00     3.97     0.94P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.03    67.01     4.22    61.61     4.06    -5.34     0.00     0.00     1.71     0.22P    0.08R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.08    50.71     7.82    60.07     3.99     3.68     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.15P    0.16R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.64    43.36    -1.49    59.64     4.00    -4.01     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.13P    0.25R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.32    56.38    -1.28    58.14     3.96   -10.96     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P    1.23R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.80    23.38    -3.28    53.45     3.94    -7.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    10.36R    0.53  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.48    44.48    -2.14    52.73     3.93   -15.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.77R    1.04  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.85    16.53    -9.51    53.31     3.99    -9.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.60R    0.51  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.40    35.89    -3.20    52.50     4.00   -13.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.14R    1.33  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.61    31.50    -5.31    52.47     3.99   -15.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.96R    1.55  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.77    30.86     0.22    49.42     3.90   -12.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.20R    4.51  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.96    38.20    -6.66    44.90     3.96   -32.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.89R   41.55  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.68    20.38    -5.98    43.85     3.90   -23.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.35R   48.97  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.72    95.78     9.43    82.07     4.26    20.04    55.82    75.26    97.96    79.68P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.29    59.70     4.75    77.92     3.99    28.74    17.11    41.31    89.45    54.10P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.74    66.16    11.24    75.73     3.95    29.20     7.98    22.35    79.30    35.91P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.64    52.57    -0.42    74.37     3.95    20.04     3.50    11.83    65.26    26.18P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       5.97    75.05     4.03    74.97     3.93    17.15     4.42    14.23    69.68    26.27P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.32    43.80     8.25    75.93     3.84    35.34     8.53    24.30    82.76    41.66P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.50    34.28    -3.81    72.47     3.71    19.72     0.94     4.22    46.89    17.46P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.84    93.24     5.71    72.12     4.21     4.18     1.39     4.88    38.74     9.82P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.23    39.58     3.37    69.61     4.17    20.89     0.31     1.57    23.64     7.44P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.52    35.09     0.87    66.12     3.61    14.88     0.00     0.01     3.75     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.83    58.42     5.99    64.76     3.95    10.07     0.00     0.03     2.39     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.81    37.68    -4.14    60.53     4.05     0.31     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -4.02    32.30    -0.85    56.78     3.91     0.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.69    53.85    -5.84    55.30     3.80   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.44    39.61     3.29    54.94     4.00    -1.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.60    42.89    -5.92    53.63     4.04   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.50    35.04     1.31    50.33     3.86    -9.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.84R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.66    30.25    -1.82    47.20     3.85   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.22R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.70    47.38    -1.31    48.21     4.12   -20.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.21R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.80    29.00    -0.83    45.36     3.81   -15.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.88R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.64    47.91    -1.31    40.92     3.86   -32.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.68R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.16     4.50   -17.31    27.28     3.62   -53.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.43  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.25    25.82   -14.68    22.19     3.75   -47.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.57  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.28    84.01    10.63    82.83     4.03    26.17    16.71    66.98    99.86    75.15P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.79    86.07     8.35    86.26     4.26    28.29    49.02    87.89    99.99    91.22P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.53    64.48     1.39    83.76     4.06    27.02    23.19    74.35    99.90    82.44P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.77    79.88     0.51    79.14     3.98    12.68     2.97    25.81    98.33    43.32P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.86    80.75    15.03    80.20     4.21    28.60     8.05    42.38    99.29    57.09P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.73    47.02     3.36    71.86     4.00    17.27     0.02     1.31    70.29    19.89P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.38    51.48     3.89    71.02     4.01    14.99     0.04     0.97    61.35    15.68P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.27    79.05     7.10    69.21     3.97     5.85     0.00     0.24    36.64     6.70P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.45    39.99    -4.39    67.55     4.01     5.82     0.00     0.06    24.95     6.67P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.14    67.41    10.31    61.05     3.94     0.92     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.70    38.84    -0.57    63.26     4.17     3.82     0.00     0.00     5.60     1.21P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.67    47.74     7.12    60.42     3.95     4.02     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.05    59.73     2.18    57.89     3.91    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.67    38.79    -9.44    60.17     4.27    -9.68     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.03    50.75    -2.78    57.98     4.10    -9.19     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.20    56.31     1.73    55.45     3.92   -10.54     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.38    49.00     2.93    52.89     4.10   -12.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.58    35.22    -9.05    53.79     3.96   -17.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.83    19.87    -9.89    52.59     3.97   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.64    12.81   -11.47    53.20     4.03   -10.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.17     5.75   -11.04    52.75     4.30    -5.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.39    39.96     2.44    45.28     3.72   -19.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.48R    1.48  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.01    24.80    -5.69    41.29     3.82   -29.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.05R   12.05  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.71     1.36   -12.65    33.96     4.14   -28.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.42R   86.42  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.73    82.33    13.26    84.39     4.04    32.03    72.48    99.75    79.03P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.27    74.56     3.42    79.36     4.06    18.51    15.39    94.10    31.72P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.63    27.50    -1.81    77.32     3.76    28.03     7.02    90.97    36.25P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.48    35.35    -2.22    75.48     4.03    21.69     3.38    78.80    25.49P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.29    71.46     9.10    74.39     4.03    18.08     1.30    68.26    13.87P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.68    82.71     2.81    69.15     3.95    -0.58     0.08    15.27     2.27P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.73    84.44     4.96    65.61     3.43    -6.05     0.00     2.30     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.62    35.05     1.38    68.64     3.75    14.89     0.01    14.55     3.48P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.56    52.51     4.72    65.96     3.50     8.08     0.00     2.87     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.93    82.28     4.46    64.32     3.73    -7.63     0.00     1.34     0.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.31    51.41     1.53    70.17     4.55    11.60     0.33    27.14     6.11P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.27    55.84    -0.83    64.79     3.82    -0.19     0.00     1.81     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.04    42.02     2.52    64.77     3.83     7.70     0.00     2.19     0.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.04    37.45     3.39    62.11     3.79     6.68     0.00     0.41     0.07P    0.07R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.99    66.64     4.61    59.48     4.29    -8.68     0.00     0.22     0.03P    1.51R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.08    55.54     0.39    54.57     3.45   -13.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.45R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.28    51.73    -3.87    56.77     3.95   -14.34     0.00     0.02     0.00     5.47R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.53    27.71    -2.58    55.43     3.92    -5.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.54R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.31    22.50    -8.30    54.54     3.75   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.45R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.82    14.12    -6.30    55.27     3.99    -2.95     0.00     0.00     0.00P    8.09R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.30    25.69   -12.65    49.82     3.41   -23.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.68R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.42    44.93     1.00    49.92     3.68   -17.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.74R    0.04  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.01    11.72   -14.66    52.00     4.07   -15.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.00R    0.03  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.90    21.84    -4.34    32.47     3.32   -41.07     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.92