Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 10 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      16.99    99.79     2.82   101.46     3.52    56.90   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.57    19.92    -5.06    80.19     3.52    54.14     0.00    98.79    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.68    67.90    15.44    68.25     3.99    34.24     0.00     1.13    77.38    93.00    99.48     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.16    38.85    -3.80    63.10     3.85    16.24     0.00     0.07    12.64    53.47    91.07     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.81    30.99     0.71    61.28     3.88    19.99     0.00     0.01     7.77    35.19    83.81     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.16    66.22     7.55    56.32     4.00     8.45     0.00     0.00     0.48     5.03    33.86     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.40    83.61     9.43    55.26     4.15     3.14     0.00     0.00     0.65     3.80    23.71     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.40    13.46    -7.60    56.80     4.03    12.22     0.00     0.00     0.84     6.91    42.16     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.14    25.40    -5.84    54.89     4.13     5.52     0.00     0.00     0.28     2.48    21.94     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.59    77.10     3.93    49.33     3.71    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.10     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.35    62.67    -1.18    48.89     3.78    -9.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.20     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.63    47.04    -4.43    49.28     3.92    -9.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.60     0.04R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.55    64.32    -5.24    45.14     3.71   -19.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.04R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.16    67.24    -1.02    43.66     3.79   -21.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.36R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.71    36.52     4.67    37.75     3.64   -13.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.78R    1.64  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.33    20.67    -2.94    38.64     3.95   -16.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.66R    1.91  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.49    27.75    -3.19    36.89     3.75   -21.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.07R    4.06  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.58    27.67    -3.47    35.94     3.66   -24.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.99R    5.06  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.46    43.31     0.70    33.94     3.90   -30.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.49R   16.76  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.09    29.41    -1.46    29.49     3.61   -34.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.55R   70.55  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.89    80.36     7.98    86.84     3.95    31.26    51.39    93.97   100.00    95.79P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.77    65.32     3.48    86.18     4.00    32.98    46.51    91.43   100.00    94.45P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.41    71.52     2.33    76.99     4.05    14.97     1.32     7.72    95.17    29.71P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.71    30.40     9.94    75.71     4.00    36.06     0.69     5.66    93.32    37.55P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.07    74.66     5.10    73.41     4.06    11.60     0.08     1.13    78.68    17.00P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.86    62.13     1.44    68.81     4.07     5.66     0.00     0.05    35.90     7.10P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.12    67.26    -2.04    67.47     4.05    -1.77     0.00     0.02    22.26     3.73P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.08    71.22     6.05    66.87     4.06     4.82     0.00     0.00    19.94     3.65P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.08    49.79    -2.92    66.86     4.08     2.83     0.00     0.01    20.08     4.24P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.41    52.17     4.30    65.56     4.09     7.30     0.00     0.01    14.37     2.88P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.11    50.66    -2.14    65.83     4.01     1.88     0.00     0.00    13.13     2.62P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.88    34.03    -6.22    62.68     3.99    -0.98     0.00     0.00     3.72     0.72P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.15    67.56     4.37    61.58     4.04    -5.41     0.00     0.00     1.58     0.25P    0.09R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4      -0.01    50.46     7.67    60.10     4.02     3.74     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.18P    0.18R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.79    42.68    -1.68    59.71     4.01    -3.94     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.13P    0.22R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.29    56.16    -1.35    58.22     3.97   -10.86     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.01P    1.10R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.89    23.05    -3.45    53.48     3.96    -7.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.19R    0.51  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.25    45.65    -1.89    52.62     3.94   -15.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.50R    1.19  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.67    16.93    -9.26    53.25     4.00    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.98R    0.54  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.45    35.40    -3.30    52.53     3.98   -13.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.84R    1.31  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.68    30.98    -5.42    52.46     3.99   -15.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.09R    1.56  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.72    30.87     0.28    49.39     3.91   -13.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.42R    4.74  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.17    37.13    -7.03    44.97     3.95   -32.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.60R   41.84  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.87    19.92    -6.25    43.98     3.90   -23.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.78R   48.29  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.60    95.95     9.18    82.15     4.24    20.14    56.44    75.62    98.35    80.12P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.09    59.05     4.44    77.94     3.99    28.80    16.93    41.94    89.67    55.11P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.83    66.58    11.37    75.71     3.98    29.17     7.98    22.39    78.98    35.91P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.41    51.52    -0.77    74.43     3.96    20.12     3.59    12.23    65.72    26.91P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.31    76.28     4.45    74.87     3.94    16.98     4.18    13.76    68.63    25.42P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.04    45.16     8.79    75.88     3.83    35.24     8.25    23.46    82.72    40.34P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.69    33.73    -4.04    72.50     3.72    19.72     0.89     4.27    47.44    17.85P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.92    93.42     5.86    72.07     4.24     4.11     1.45     4.86    38.48     9.63P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.25    39.50     3.35    69.60     4.17    20.87     0.29     1.44    23.68     7.21P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.39    35.61     1.11    66.08     3.61    14.80     0.00     0.01     3.76     1.00P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.85    58.99     5.96    64.77     3.96    10.09     0.00     0.02     2.42     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.82    37.75    -4.16    60.50     4.02     0.30     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.99    32.80    -0.76    56.78     3.92     0.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.67    53.69    -5.92    55.30     3.82   -14.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.49    39.41     3.20    54.94     4.01    -1.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.58    43.17    -5.86    53.61     4.03   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.63    34.40     1.16    50.37     3.86    -9.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.86R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.49    30.68    -1.47    47.17     3.85   -14.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.22R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.64    47.93    -1.23    48.22     4.10   -20.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.04R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.90    28.75    -0.99    45.41     3.78   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.78R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.62    48.09    -1.24    40.95     3.87   -32.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.87R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.30     4.25   -17.69    27.31     3.61   -53.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.52  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.30    26.25   -14.74    22.22     3.76   -47.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.48  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.44    84.48    10.81    82.78     4.05    26.12    16.70    66.93    99.83    75.13P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.90    86.34     8.55    86.21     4.27    28.23    49.05    87.82    99.99    91.19P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.70    65.34     1.68    83.70     4.10    26.97    23.10    73.89    99.89    82.21P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.77    79.98     0.53    79.12     3.99    12.65     2.93    25.85    98.32    43.65P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.82    80.59    15.02    80.21     4.21    28.61     8.16    42.91    99.37    57.59P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.91    45.89     3.12    71.90     4.00    17.36     0.03     1.42    70.23    20.22P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.57    52.56     4.22    70.98     4.01    14.93     0.02     0.93    61.13    15.07P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.29    79.14     7.12    69.22     3.99     5.84     0.00     0.20    37.02     6.48P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.52    39.57    -4.45    67.59     4.00     5.85     0.00     0.05    25.24     6.51P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.08    67.38    10.28    61.00     3.93     0.84     0.00     0.00     1.22     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.42    39.61    -0.22    63.18     4.17     3.71     0.00     0.01     5.37     1.25P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.63    47.92     7.20    60.32     3.94     3.87     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.83    58.95     1.85    57.97     3.89    -7.96     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.74    38.67    -9.53    60.14     4.25    -9.70     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.12    49.99    -3.04    58.10     4.12    -9.03     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.18    55.95     1.72    55.49     3.91   -10.49     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.15    50.41     3.22    52.86     4.08   -12.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.61    34.93    -9.12    53.82     4.00   -17.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.88    19.71    -9.93    52.58     3.95   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.45    13.11   -11.24    53.22     4.04   -10.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.36     5.47   -11.32    52.83     4.30    -5.39     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.37    40.07     2.37    45.30     3.74   -19.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.45R    1.45  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.16    24.17    -5.99    41.35     3.82   -29.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.05R   12.05  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.84     1.38   -12.85    33.96     4.15   -28.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.45R   86.45  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.65    82.49    13.15    84.36     4.04    32.01    72.29    99.81    78.87P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.25    74.71     3.43    79.39     4.05    18.55    15.58    94.56    32.15P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.12    29.23    -1.04    77.20     3.76    27.88     6.75    90.28    35.07P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.73    34.36    -2.58    75.54     4.05    21.80     3.58    78.88    25.98P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.28    71.42     9.12    74.42     4.03    18.11     1.39    68.73    14.24P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.43    82.00     2.48    69.14     3.95    -0.60     0.05    15.39     2.29P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.57    83.74     4.75    65.65     3.44    -6.04     0.00     2.41     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.62    35.44     1.35    68.62     3.77    14.87     0.01    14.55     3.47P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.62    52.85     4.78    65.97     3.49     8.04     0.00     2.83     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.97    82.73     4.52    64.32     3.71    -7.62     0.00     1.21     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.34    51.71     1.58    70.14     4.52    11.55     0.35    26.52     6.14P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.18    55.31    -0.94    64.85     3.82    -0.14     0.00     1.87     0.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.17    41.33     2.28    64.82     3.82     7.77     0.00     2.31     0.44P    0.02R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.94    37.88     3.59    62.12     3.79     6.69     0.00     0.40     0.08P    0.07R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.17    67.65     4.85    59.46     4.29    -8.70     0.00     0.22     0.03P    1.47R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.05    55.41     0.33    54.54     3.42   -13.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.46R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.19    51.63    -4.07    56.81     3.95   -14.26     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.02R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.20    29.03    -2.11    55.34     3.94    -5.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.93R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.24    22.52    -8.19    54.51     3.77   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.48R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.98    13.90    -6.52    55.32     4.02    -2.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.00R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.20    26.01   -12.56    49.82     3.42   -23.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.43R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.36    44.79     1.14    49.92     3.66   -17.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.04R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.20    11.58   -14.94    52.00     4.07   -15.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.10R    0.03  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.88    21.53    -4.40    32.48     3.33   -41.02     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.92