Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 9 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.10    99.75     3.14   101.43     3.52    56.84   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.59    19.97    -5.17    80.20     3.54    54.15     0.00    98.74    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.47    67.13    15.13    68.34     3.98    34.39     0.00     1.19    78.20    93.18    99.52     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.08    39.15    -3.64    63.09     3.85    16.20     0.00     0.06    12.16    53.08    90.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.80    30.98     0.72    61.27     3.91    19.94     0.00     0.01     7.51    35.26    83.44     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.18    66.31     7.58    56.39     4.01     8.55     0.00     0.00     0.50     5.21    34.20     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.58    84.06     9.64    55.15     4.15     2.99     0.00     0.00     0.49     3.57    22.88     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.63    13.12    -8.03    56.92     4.03    12.37     0.00     0.00     0.86     7.11    43.15     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.20    25.14    -6.01    54.86     4.13     5.48     0.00     0.00     0.30     2.45    21.85     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.58    76.93     3.89    49.33     3.71    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.12     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.32    62.48    -1.13    48.87     3.76    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     1.26     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.51    47.97    -4.26    49.23     3.93    -9.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.53     0.04R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.56    64.29    -5.20    45.15     3.72   -19.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.05R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       2.95    66.25    -1.37    43.76     3.82   -21.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.38R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.59    36.95     4.86    37.70     3.62   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.84R    1.75  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.29    20.91    -2.88    38.62     3.95   -16.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.53R    2.02  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.46    28.23    -3.09    36.88     3.76   -21.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.97R    4.10  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.60    27.76    -3.52    35.89     3.64   -24.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.35R    5.20  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.49    43.06     0.67    33.96     3.91   -30.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.34R   16.33  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.99    29.84    -1.34    29.47     3.63   -34.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.49R   70.56  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.76    79.88     7.80    86.86     3.95    31.27    51.21    94.12   100.00    95.97P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.53    64.44     3.06    86.27     4.00    33.13    46.72    91.78   100.00    94.60P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.53    72.03     2.53    76.97     4.04    14.93     1.27     7.50    95.16    28.93P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.83    29.98     9.80    75.76     4.00    36.12     0.71     5.45    93.39    37.57P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.13    74.75     5.13    73.43     4.04    11.62     0.08     1.07    78.85    17.37P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.93    62.29     1.43    68.79     4.06     5.63     0.00     0.05    35.81     7.12P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.11    67.13    -2.07    67.47     4.05    -1.79     0.00     0.01    22.16     3.88P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.14    71.53     6.18    66.87     4.05     4.81     0.00     0.00    19.71     3.47P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.31    48.88    -3.23    66.91     4.09     2.91     0.00     0.01    20.40     4.26P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.37    51.80     4.31    65.55     4.04     7.32     0.00     0.00    14.08     2.72P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.05    50.47    -2.28    65.84     4.03     1.90     0.00     0.01    13.35     2.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.85    34.12    -6.19    62.68     4.00    -0.99     0.00     0.00     3.79     0.88P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.09    67.28     4.31    61.58     4.03    -5.39     0.00     0.00     1.52     0.23P    0.05R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.13    51.09     7.87    60.10     3.97     3.71     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.15P    0.15R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.63    43.25    -1.43    59.61     4.00    -4.06     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.14P    0.21R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.30    56.32    -1.31    58.18     3.97   -10.92     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    1.24R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.91    22.96    -3.42    53.49     3.96    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.86R    0.54  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.38    44.73    -2.03    52.71     3.93   -15.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.93R    1.02  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.98    15.91    -9.69    53.32     4.01    -9.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.64R    0.49  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.47    35.36    -3.34    52.55     3.98   -13.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.52R    1.20  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.49    32.03    -5.11    52.40     4.00   -15.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.55R    1.52  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.77    30.63     0.17    49.38     3.91   -13.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.64R    4.66  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.99    37.93    -6.72    44.92     3.95   -32.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.90R   41.44  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.57    20.67    -5.79    43.88     3.89   -23.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.32R   49.12  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.62    95.68     9.22    82.12     4.22    20.11    56.38    75.66    98.22    80.17P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.11    59.00     4.46    77.94     3.98    28.80    16.90    42.34    89.29    55.21P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.98    67.44    11.61    75.73     3.94    29.17     7.99    22.25    79.49    35.92P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.64    52.59    -0.43    74.32     3.96    20.04     3.42    11.53    65.00    26.00P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.05    75.45     4.16    74.91     3.93    17.05     4.19    13.65    69.25    25.74P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.12    44.59     8.61    75.88     3.86    35.26     8.48    23.71    82.54    40.57P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.83    32.98    -4.25    72.53     3.72    19.80     0.90     4.51    47.53    17.96P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.98    93.53     5.94    72.05     4.23     4.11     1.45     4.79    38.13     9.47P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.38    39.01     3.16    69.65     4.19    20.96     0.30     1.54    24.22     7.48P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.46    35.30     0.94    66.11     3.62    14.86     0.00     0.02     3.73     0.94P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.87    58.69     6.00    64.76     3.95    10.09     0.01     0.02     2.42     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.71    38.25    -3.96    60.54     4.04     0.31     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.97    32.57    -0.74    56.76     3.92     0.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.86    54.58    -5.62    55.24     3.80   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.42    39.59     3.31    54.95     4.02    -1.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.81    42.14    -6.17    53.68     4.01   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.70    33.83     1.00    50.38     3.83    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.76R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.49    30.79    -1.52    47.15     3.83   -14.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.28R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.89    46.98    -1.60    48.28     4.14   -20.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.95R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.73    29.10    -0.76    45.37     3.80   -15.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.89R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.59    48.67    -1.16    40.91     3.86   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.94R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.19     4.53   -17.39    27.24     3.60   -53.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.74  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.30    25.57   -14.82    22.20     3.75   -47.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.25  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.21    83.69    10.51    82.81     4.04    26.17    16.70    67.02    99.83    75.41P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.81    85.83     8.44    86.22     4.25    28.23    48.66    87.72    99.99    91.09P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.64    64.76     1.58    83.78     4.06    27.06    23.40    74.80    99.93    82.98P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.88    80.54     0.69    79.11     3.98    12.63     2.97    25.78    98.42    43.40P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.95    80.92    15.21    80.17     4.24    28.52     8.21    42.23    99.35    56.68P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.73    46.67     3.35    71.89     3.99    17.30     0.03     1.33    70.48    19.76P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.43    51.85     3.99    70.99     4.04    14.94     0.03     0.85    60.99    15.55P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.36    79.17     7.19    69.19     3.97     5.80     0.00     0.20    36.61     6.68P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.47    39.81    -4.36    67.54     3.99     5.82     0.00     0.06    24.90     6.46P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       3.92    66.69     9.98    61.12     3.94     1.03     0.00     0.00     1.33     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.59    39.28    -0.37    63.23     4.18     3.78     0.00     0.00     5.64     1.24P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.84    46.69     6.88    60.40     3.95     4.03     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.06    59.82     2.18    57.91     3.88    -8.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.70    39.02    -9.50    60.15     4.25    -9.69     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.14    51.36    -2.67    58.01     4.11    -9.15     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.03    55.51     1.49    55.51     3.90   -10.47     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.30    49.35     3.03    52.83     4.10   -12.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.71    34.57    -9.28    53.85     3.99   -17.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.79    19.86    -9.78    52.59     3.96   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.52    13.10   -11.35    53.22     4.03   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.09     5.86   -10.93    52.72     4.30    -5.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.52    39.62     2.20    45.33     3.74   -19.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.39R    1.39  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.01    24.95    -5.72    41.25     3.80   -29.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.41R   12.41  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.74     1.36   -12.74    34.00     4.15   -28.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.16R   86.16  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.63    82.26    13.12    84.40     4.04    32.06    72.55    99.80    78.94P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.35    74.92     3.55    79.39     4.07    18.52    15.51    94.42    31.96P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.45    28.13    -1.53    77.26     3.78    27.96     6.63    90.37    36.03P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.51    35.44    -2.19    75.48     4.06    21.68     3.59    78.67    25.24P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.22    71.38     9.02    74.37     4.04    18.06     1.34    68.41    14.10P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.50    82.26     2.54    69.17     3.93    -0.56     0.04    15.63     2.38P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.61    83.87     4.82    65.62     3.43    -6.05     0.00     2.23     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.50    35.52     1.52    68.64     3.78    14.89     0.01    15.02     3.58P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.42    52.15     4.50    65.98     3.50     8.07     0.00     2.87     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.90    82.24     4.39    64.38     3.72    -7.53     0.00     1.30     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.42    52.01     1.69    70.12     4.52    11.51     0.33    26.59     5.97P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.23    55.64    -0.88    64.81     3.83    -0.20     0.00     1.90     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.05    41.84     2.49    64.79     3.80     7.73     0.00     2.22     0.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.87    38.24     3.66    62.11     3.77     6.69     0.00     0.38     0.06P    0.06R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.03    67.03     4.68    59.47     4.27    -8.71     0.00     0.19     0.03P    1.45R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.14    55.85     0.48    54.52     3.45   -13.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.81R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.18    51.32    -4.09    56.82     3.98   -14.25     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.19R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.33    28.14    -2.34    55.36     3.95    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.06R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.20    22.48    -8.16    54.49     3.76   -10.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.69R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.02    13.74    -6.52    55.29     4.02    -2.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.90R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.36    25.43   -12.75    49.88     3.41   -23.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.92R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.40    44.51     1.01    49.96     3.67   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.15R    0.01  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.98    11.79   -14.56    51.94     4.08   -15.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.77R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.89    21.68    -4.44    32.49     3.30   -41.01     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.96