Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 8 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.11    99.80     3.02   101.44     3.52    56.85   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.59    20.10    -5.07    80.17     3.53    54.13     0.00    98.73    99.95   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.56    67.21    15.23    68.27     4.00    34.30     0.00     1.19    77.95    92.97    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.15    39.09    -3.72    63.09     3.85    16.20     0.00     0.08    12.15    53.12    90.90     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.93    30.61     0.49    61.28     3.88    19.99     0.00     0.00     7.70    35.39    83.60     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.18    66.20     7.57    56.39     4.04     8.53     0.00     0.00     0.51     5.13    34.39     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.50    83.96     9.57    55.20     4.16     3.04     0.00     0.00     0.54     3.63    22.97     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.55    13.12    -7.85    56.89     4.04    12.31     0.00     0.00     0.90     7.13    42.79     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.07    25.54    -5.79    54.86     4.14     5.44     0.00     0.00     0.30     2.47    21.78     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.61    77.32     3.93    49.28     3.71    -9.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.16     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.14    61.78    -1.43    48.93     3.77    -9.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.31     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.63    47.36    -4.42    49.29     3.90    -9.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.55     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.64    64.90    -5.14    45.15     3.73   -19.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.03R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.06    66.50    -1.27    43.74     3.82   -21.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     2.28R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.68    36.94     4.67    37.71     3.63   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.12R    1.67  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.12    21.50    -2.56    38.60     3.95   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.85R    2.10  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.60    27.35    -3.29    36.89     3.74   -21.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.66R    4.01  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.48    28.31    -3.34    35.91     3.68   -24.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.68R    5.23  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.40    43.56     0.85    33.91     3.87   -30.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.81R   16.53  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.08    29.70    -1.45    29.50     3.63   -34.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.52R   70.42  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.83    80.15     7.95    86.86     3.94    31.27    51.44    93.89   100.00    95.75P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.77    65.31     3.44    86.20     4.00    33.00    46.31    91.22   100.00    94.16P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.40    71.35     2.33    77.02     4.06    14.99     1.43     8.05    95.34    30.05P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.98    29.14     9.48    75.79     4.00    36.18     0.74     5.72    93.40    37.99P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.21    75.04     5.29    73.41     4.05    11.60     0.07     1.02    78.74    16.67P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.76    61.76     1.24    68.86     4.05     5.73     0.00     0.05    36.08     7.15P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.09    67.24    -2.05    67.44     4.07    -1.83     0.00     0.01    22.21     3.84P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.14    71.70     6.10    66.86     4.03     4.81     0.00     0.01    19.82     3.39P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2       0.06    50.75    -2.71    66.83     4.05     2.79     0.00     0.01    19.61     4.15P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.50    52.32     4.39    65.56     4.07     7.32     0.00     0.00    14.35     2.86P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1      -0.01    50.21    -2.31    65.86     3.98     1.93     0.00     0.01    13.17     2.64P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.93    33.70    -6.23    62.70     4.01    -0.97     0.00     0.00     3.76     0.78P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       3.96    66.88     4.12    61.59     4.03    -5.37     0.00     0.00     1.64     0.25P    0.05R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.13    51.10     7.85    60.06     4.03     3.65     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.18P    0.19R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.76    42.74    -1.66    59.66     4.01    -3.99     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.12P    0.21R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.39    56.39    -1.14    58.14     3.97   -10.96     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P    1.23R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.77    23.39    -3.27    53.48     3.92    -7.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.89R    0.54  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.28    45.28    -1.88    52.67     3.95   -15.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.21R    1.10  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -9.04    15.72    -9.78    53.33     4.00    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.50R    0.55  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.34    36.08    -3.12    52.49     3.97   -13.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.90R    1.33  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.64    31.17    -5.28    52.45     3.99   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.16R    1.50  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.68    31.08     0.35    49.38     3.89   -13.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.69R    4.81  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.10    37.34    -6.97    44.96     3.95   -32.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.73R   41.27  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.77    20.14    -6.15    43.91     3.89   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.23R   48.90  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.56    95.64     9.13    82.15     4.25    20.15    56.31    75.64    98.26    80.02P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.08    58.80     4.42    77.94     3.98    28.79    16.91    41.73    89.49    54.86P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.80    66.23    11.34    75.71     3.96    29.17     7.84    22.08    79.09    35.46P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.68    52.90    -0.30    74.36     3.96    20.03     3.52    11.92    65.09    26.26P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.11    75.58     4.19    74.93     3.93    17.09     4.31    14.05    69.36    26.19P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.17    44.57     8.54    75.89     3.87    35.26     8.46    23.84    82.59    41.03P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.80    33.18    -4.19    72.52     3.75    19.78     0.89     4.46    47.47    17.88P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.87    93.36     5.78    72.08     4.22     4.11     1.44     4.73    38.45     9.27P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.18    40.03     3.42    69.62     4.17    20.91     0.31     1.52    23.73     7.45P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.30    35.74     1.21    66.08     3.61    14.80     0.00     0.01     3.86     1.01P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.78    58.47     5.90    64.76     3.94    10.10     0.00     0.02     2.43     0.52P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.72    37.94    -4.00    60.56     4.02     0.32     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.95    32.92    -0.72    56.77     3.92     0.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.92    54.89    -5.58    55.21     3.79   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.37    40.11     3.40    54.93     4.04    -1.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.62    43.11    -5.92    53.63     4.03   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.55    34.78     1.21    50.34     3.85    -9.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.79R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.70    30.01    -1.87    47.20     3.83   -14.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.13R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.78    47.42    -1.42    48.26     4.13   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.24R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.91    28.42    -0.96    45.37     3.80   -15.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.87R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.58    48.40    -1.16    40.91     3.87   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.77R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.23     4.56   -17.52    27.28     3.60   -53.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   20.77  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.40    25.45   -14.90    22.24     3.76   -47.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.23  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.36    84.28    10.70    82.81     4.03    26.16    16.72    66.84    99.86    75.00P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.82    85.86     8.44    86.22     4.27    28.23    48.81    87.54    99.98    90.96P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.75    65.17     1.73    83.75     4.06    27.02    23.22    74.12    99.93    82.25P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.63    79.55     0.36    79.16     3.96    12.69     2.94    25.65    98.48    43.85P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.85    80.61    15.00    80.27     4.23    28.67     8.25    43.23    99.35    57.46P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -1.01    45.76     2.97    71.96     4.05    17.41     0.03     1.42    70.71    20.28P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.57    52.32     4.17    71.00     4.02    14.95     0.03     0.95    61.22    15.65P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.51    79.69     7.38    69.18     3.97     5.79     0.00     0.23    36.29     6.45P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.34    40.42    -4.19    67.56     4.02     5.83     0.00     0.03    25.06     6.30P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.16    67.87    10.36    61.00     3.93     0.87     0.00     0.00     1.23     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.44    39.98    -0.20    63.21     4.17     3.73     0.00     0.00     5.47     1.13P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.78    47.32     6.97    60.42     3.94     4.00     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.93    59.35     2.02    57.92     3.90    -8.02     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.80    38.44    -9.65    60.23     4.24    -9.63     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.01    50.51    -2.90    58.02     4.07    -9.16     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.21    55.93     1.71    55.44     3.90   -10.54     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.28    49.77     3.05    52.86     4.11   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.60    35.09    -9.15    53.80     3.96   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.83    20.11    -9.86    52.59     3.97   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.46    13.30   -11.28    53.21     4.03   -10.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.17     5.81   -11.01    52.74     4.29    -5.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.57    39.20     2.22    45.29     3.75   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.44R    1.44  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.08    24.54    -5.83    41.28     3.80   -29.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.13R   12.13  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.98     1.29   -13.00    33.97     4.14   -28.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.37R   86.37  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.68    82.41    13.15    84.39     4.05    32.06    72.12    99.78    78.59P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.30    74.62     3.48    79.40     4.07    18.56    15.61    94.20    32.25P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.28    28.61    -1.32    77.26     3.77    27.95     6.75    90.43    35.62P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.76    34.13    -2.61    75.55     4.04    21.79     3.69    79.01    25.89P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.12    70.96     8.87    74.46     4.02    18.16     1.40    69.08    14.32P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.39    82.20     2.40    69.18     3.96    -0.53     0.06    15.66     2.26P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.64    83.99     4.90    65.64     3.45    -6.04     0.00     2.47     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.45    35.58     1.63    68.60     3.76    14.84     0.01    14.28     3.32P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.61    52.87     4.87    65.97     3.51     8.04     0.00     2.82     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       9.14    83.05     4.76    64.29     3.74    -7.68     0.00     1.25     0.16P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.42    51.93     1.70    70.10     4.54    11.49     0.35    26.46     6.01P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.21    55.21    -0.91    64.82     3.82    -0.18     0.00     1.88     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -1.98    41.97     2.55    64.78     3.82     7.71     0.00     2.13     0.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.96    38.14     3.50    62.10     3.78     6.65     0.00     0.35     0.06P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.99    66.93     4.55    59.45     4.28    -8.69     0.00     0.21     0.02P    1.57R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.10    55.54     0.39    54.57     3.44   -13.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.49R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.20    51.45    -4.04    56.79     3.95   -14.31     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.31R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.44    27.89    -2.45    55.42     3.92    -5.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.64R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.15    22.63    -7.95    54.44     3.77   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.96R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.00    13.66    -6.57    55.31     3.99    -2.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.00R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.25    25.84   -12.66    49.84     3.40   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.75R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.53    44.16     0.92    49.92     3.66   -17.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.58R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.23    11.46   -14.96    52.03     4.08   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.60R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.74    22.19    -4.21    32.46     3.32   -41.06     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.93