Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 7 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.02    99.76     2.92   101.50     3.51    56.94   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.65    19.79    -5.26    80.20     3.52    54.19     0.00    98.78    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.46    66.92    15.08    68.34     4.03    34.38     0.00     1.15    77.99    92.99    99.44     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.17    38.86    -3.78    63.11     3.84    16.22     0.00     0.06    12.13    53.43    91.16     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.89    30.75     0.51    61.29     3.88    20.03     0.00     0.01     7.72    35.25    83.84     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.17    66.31     7.53    56.40     4.03     8.54     0.00     0.00     0.51     5.22    34.34     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.47    83.88     9.57    55.17     4.15     3.02     0.00     0.00     0.54     3.60    22.83     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.66    12.91    -8.05    56.90     4.03    12.35     0.00     0.00     0.88     7.07    43.16     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.06    25.79    -5.75    54.80     4.13     5.35     0.00     0.00     0.27     2.33    21.37     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.69    77.26     4.01    49.29     3.71    -9.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     1.11     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.43    62.88    -1.02    48.89     3.78    -9.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.21     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.63    47.26    -4.40    49.24     3.89    -9.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.47     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.50    64.11    -5.28    45.16     3.71   -19.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.02R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.07    66.59    -1.18    43.74     3.81   -21.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.27R    0.02  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.75    36.49     4.62    37.71     3.64   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.08R    1.62  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.12    21.39    -2.60    38.58     3.91   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.68R    1.90  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.46    28.06    -3.05    36.86     3.75   -21.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.79R    4.15  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.58    27.74    -3.45    35.92     3.70   -24.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.12R    5.29  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.45    43.29     0.75    33.95     3.90   -30.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.41R   16.46  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.96    29.92    -1.18    29.47     3.64   -34.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.59R   70.56  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.82    80.09     7.84    86.89     3.98    31.31    51.45    93.98   100.00    95.77P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.70    65.28     3.35    86.25     3.98    33.09    46.51    91.65   100.00    94.46P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.29    71.06     2.19    77.02     4.04    15.00     1.35     7.90    95.24    30.02P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.87    29.44     9.72    75.76     4.00    36.13     0.62     5.38    93.25    37.51P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.33    75.40     5.47    73.34     4.05    11.49     0.07     0.99    78.34    16.78P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.90    62.42     1.48    68.81     4.05     5.65     0.00     0.06    35.84     7.03P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.02    66.95    -2.22    67.49     4.06    -1.74     0.00     0.01    22.31     3.98P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.18    71.78     6.20    66.83     4.04     4.78     0.00     0.00    19.83     3.38P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2       0.08    50.52    -2.70    66.83     4.09     2.79     0.00     0.01    20.32     4.31P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.36    51.73     4.27    65.55     4.09     7.30     0.00     0.01    14.53     2.85P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1      -0.03    50.09    -2.36    65.87     4.01     1.94     0.00     0.00    13.40     2.64P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.94    33.49    -6.29    62.68     3.98    -0.98     0.00     0.00     3.57     0.75P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.14    67.58     4.43    61.53     4.03    -5.48     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.20P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.11    51.15     7.86    60.11     4.01     3.73     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.15P    0.17R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.61    43.31    -1.41    59.65     4.00    -4.02     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.13P    0.21R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.25    56.28    -1.41    58.20     3.95   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    1.17R    0.00  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.87    23.19    -3.40    53.50     3.97    -7.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.21R    0.58  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.48    44.51    -2.22    52.72     3.93   -15.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.86R    1.06  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.97    15.77    -9.69    53.36     3.99    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.36R    0.50  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.63    34.95    -3.52    52.54     3.99   -13.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.83R    1.34  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.50    31.82    -5.18    52.38     3.97   -15.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.23R    1.48  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.61    31.43     0.41    49.38     3.89   -13.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.92R    4.48  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.98    37.88    -6.79    44.94     3.95   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.81R   41.41  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.71    20.36    -6.01    43.87     3.90   -23.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.15R   49.14  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.64    95.77     9.26    82.12     4.24    20.12    56.03    75.53    98.15    79.87P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.13    59.20     4.52    77.98     3.97    28.82    17.03    42.24    89.89    55.08P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.80    66.57    11.33    75.73     3.95    29.19     8.02    22.27    79.27    35.93P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.42    51.76    -0.75    74.41     3.97    20.13     3.66    12.13    65.60    26.80P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.30    76.10     4.50    74.87     3.92    16.97     4.13    13.62    69.11    25.31P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.26    44.13     8.36    75.93     3.85    35.34     8.61    23.85    82.90    41.28P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.62    33.93    -3.93    72.46     3.72    19.71     0.88     4.19    46.99    17.42P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.03    93.64     6.01    72.01     4.21     4.05     1.34     4.64    38.12     9.43P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.16    39.88     3.49    69.57     4.19    20.85     0.30     1.49    23.40     7.29P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.51    34.91     0.90    66.08     3.62    14.80     0.00     0.01     3.85     1.01P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.84    58.56     5.96    64.81     3.97    10.14     0.00     0.03     2.55     0.53P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.89    37.30    -4.23    60.57     4.04     0.38     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.90    33.12    -0.65    56.72     3.90     0.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.91    54.77    -5.55    55.22     3.79   -14.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.27    40.33     3.56    54.91     4.02    -1.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.90    41.61    -6.33    53.72     4.04   -12.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.42    35.19     1.42    50.37     3.87    -9.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.86R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.74    29.85    -1.87    47.22     3.87   -14.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.19R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.90    46.56    -1.63    48.27     4.11   -20.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.91R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -5.02    27.73    -1.09    45.38     3.83   -15.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.93R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.57    48.50    -1.19    40.90     3.86   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.88R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.32     4.28   -17.72    27.30     3.60   -53.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.27  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.08    26.80   -14.39    22.19     3.75   -47.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.73  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.25    84.19    10.61    82.79     4.05    26.11    16.52    66.84    99.86    75.01P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.81    85.83     8.43    86.23     4.28    28.25    48.96    87.71    99.99    91.00P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.76    65.35     1.74    83.73     4.08    26.99    23.11    74.14    99.91    82.42P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.75    80.08     0.52    79.15     3.99    12.68     3.09    25.86    98.42    43.81P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.95    80.89    15.14    80.21     4.23    28.57     8.24    42.86    99.35    57.15P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.87    46.25     3.22    71.89     4.04    17.32     0.04     1.35    69.90    19.92P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.41    51.58     4.01    71.02     4.02    14.98     0.03     0.95    61.30    15.57P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.20    78.86     6.95    69.24     3.97     5.88     0.00     0.23    37.15     6.79P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.38    40.28    -4.22    67.56     3.99     5.85     0.00     0.05    24.91     6.45P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.11    67.57    10.32    61.01     3.93     0.89     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.40    39.84    -0.17    63.18     4.16     3.71     0.00     0.00     5.47     1.25P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.75    47.37     7.04    60.38     3.93     3.96     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.99    59.31     2.08    57.92     3.89    -7.99     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.71    38.95    -9.52    60.17     4.27    -9.67     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.00    50.75    -2.87    58.05     4.11    -9.10     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.28    56.51     1.76    55.47     3.91   -10.51     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.24    49.74     3.07    52.86     4.10   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.78    34.42    -9.38    53.86     3.99   -17.77     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.95    19.43   -10.05    52.65     3.98   -14.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.58    13.12   -11.42    53.20     4.05   -10.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.16     5.79   -11.02    52.77     4.29    -5.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.39    39.97     2.43    45.27     3.74   -19.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.43R    1.43  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.01    24.68    -5.70    41.26     3.80   -29.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.30R   12.30  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.90     1.28   -12.96    33.96     4.15   -28.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.23R   86.23  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.84    83.01    13.44    84.34     4.04    31.99    72.07    99.77    78.72P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.25    74.46     3.40    79.43     4.08    18.59    15.77    94.30    32.58P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.44    28.11    -1.51    77.26     3.78    27.97     6.91    90.45    35.22P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.64    34.54    -2.39    75.47     4.04    21.68     3.43    78.39    25.65P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.27    71.72     9.07    74.41     4.02    18.12     1.39    68.81    14.17P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.48    82.39     2.51    69.20     3.96    -0.51     0.05    15.82     2.34P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.65    83.96     4.89    65.63     3.43    -6.05     0.00     2.32     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.66    34.94     1.28    68.66     3.77    14.89     0.01    14.75     3.39P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.50    52.26     4.61    65.97     3.52     8.05     0.00     2.98     0.55P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       9.00    82.67     4.52    64.32     3.72    -7.60     0.00     1.30     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.58    52.65     1.89    70.09     4.53    11.50     0.36    26.28     6.04P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.20    55.44    -0.94    64.82     3.82    -0.17     0.00     1.95     0.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.06    41.66     2.46    64.81     3.82     7.75     0.00     2.27     0.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.84    38.36     3.67    62.11     3.77     6.66     0.00     0.41     0.07P    0.06R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.91    66.45     4.44    59.50     4.27    -8.64     0.00     0.20     0.04P    1.47R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       0.87    54.71     0.15    54.57     3.45   -13.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.52R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.23    51.60    -4.01    56.78     3.94   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.20R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.51    27.59    -2.50    55.40     3.93    -5.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.74R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.14    23.12    -7.98    54.50     3.75   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.41R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.91    13.78    -6.46    55.31     3.98    -2.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.95R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.32    25.64   -12.73    49.81     3.39   -23.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.96R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.43    44.65     1.04    49.94     3.67   -17.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.29R    0.02  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.08    11.65   -14.79    51.97     4.09   -15.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.40R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.68    22.14    -4.06    32.42     3.31   -41.09     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.96