Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 6 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.06    99.78     2.94   101.45     3.54    56.86   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.67    19.80    -5.25    80.18     3.53    54.14     0.00    98.76    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.50    67.24    15.12    68.29     4.01    34.34     0.00     1.15    77.59    92.88    99.46     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.08    39.35    -3.66    63.13     3.83    16.26     0.00     0.08    12.52    53.60    91.22     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.84    30.85     0.60    61.31     3.88    20.03     0.00     0.01     7.76    35.36    84.03     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.17    66.05     7.56    56.35     4.03     8.48     0.00     0.00     0.49     5.03    33.92     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.59    84.39     9.69    55.14     4.16     2.97     0.00     0.00     0.58     3.73    22.80     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.52    13.40    -7.83    56.84     4.04    12.27     0.00     0.00     0.83     6.96    42.51     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.21    25.13    -6.00    54.88     4.10     5.51     0.00     0.00     0.25     2.32    21.95     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.59    77.05     3.94    49.35     3.72    -9.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.22     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.34    62.47    -1.11    48.90     3.76    -9.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     1.20     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.68    47.10    -4.54    49.31     3.90    -9.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.58     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.46    63.52    -5.28    45.19     3.72   -19.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.97R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.06    66.48    -1.19    43.71     3.79   -21.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.30R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.67    36.67     4.72    37.73     3.65   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.95R    1.71  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.09    21.57    -2.54    38.56     3.94   -16.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.82R    2.05  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.50    27.77    -3.13    36.85     3.75   -21.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.84R    4.15  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.58    27.90    -3.45    35.88     3.66   -24.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.21R    5.27  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.37    43.91     0.86    33.92     3.89   -30.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.46R   16.91  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.07    29.54    -1.45    29.51     3.64   -34.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.40R   69.87  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.90    80.30     7.93    86.84     3.96    31.25    51.19    93.93   100.00    95.74P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.65    64.97     3.27    86.21     4.00    33.05    46.62    91.40    99.99    94.36P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.37    70.99     2.28    77.01     4.06    14.99     1.47     8.05    95.28    30.01P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.79    29.87     9.87    75.75     3.99    36.08     0.67     5.44    93.25    37.52P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       5.96    74.01     4.95    73.43     4.03    11.64     0.06     1.06    79.12    17.07P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.91    62.32     1.44    68.81     4.05     5.67     0.00     0.05    35.44     6.84P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.10    67.25    -2.09    67.50     4.05    -1.74     0.00     0.03    22.48     3.95P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.27    72.20     6.29    66.83     4.05     4.78     0.00     0.01    19.46     3.38P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.39    48.70    -3.34    66.93     4.09     2.93     0.00     0.02    20.45     4.39P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.36    51.85     4.22    65.57     4.07     7.32     0.00     0.01    14.10     2.71P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.22    51.02    -2.09    65.83     4.01     1.88     0.00     0.00    13.29     2.69P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.86    34.32    -6.16    62.66     4.01    -1.04     0.00     0.00     3.74     0.80P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.14    67.70     4.44    61.54     4.01    -5.46     0.00     0.00     1.54     0.22P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.30    51.72     8.11    60.08     4.03     3.69     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.17P    0.16R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.83    42.38    -1.68    59.70     4.00    -3.95     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.13P    0.20R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.36    56.51    -1.21    58.19     3.95   -10.92     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    1.23R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.82    23.02    -3.31    53.47     3.94    -7.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.07R    0.60  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.38    44.91    -2.05    52.66     3.95   -15.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.12R    1.11  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.99    16.15    -9.66    53.29     3.99    -9.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.62R    0.52  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.46    35.55    -3.33    52.52     3.99   -13.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.73R    1.32  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.59    31.60    -5.27    52.44     4.00   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.24R    1.47  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.65    31.32     0.36    49.38     3.90   -13.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.80R    4.80  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.07    37.92    -6.89    44.95     3.94   -32.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.63R   41.47  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.74    19.98    -6.07    43.92     3.89   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.13R   48.71  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.68    95.96     9.28    82.13     4.24    20.12    56.01    75.31    98.26    79.89P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.96    58.30     4.21    77.97     3.97    28.81    17.14    42.07    89.67    55.17P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.88    66.98    11.51    75.71     3.95    29.15     8.06    21.92    78.89    35.42P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.64    52.56    -0.47    74.37     3.97    20.07     3.68    12.00    64.95    26.19P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.14    75.71     4.22    74.92     3.92    17.05     4.11    13.98    69.37    26.11P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.26    44.05     8.32    75.95     3.82    35.34     8.55    24.26    83.21    41.41P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.74    33.38    -4.12    72.47     3.72    19.72     0.80     4.20    47.11    17.45P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.79    93.12     5.67    72.08     4.22     4.14     1.36     4.70    38.49     9.52P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.23    39.57     3.38    69.61     4.19    20.91     0.30     1.53    23.74     7.35P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.26    36.38     1.26    66.06     3.61    14.77     0.00     0.01     3.76     0.96P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       2.03    59.56     6.23    64.75     3.95    10.08     0.01     0.03     2.35     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.79    37.77    -4.09    60.57     4.01     0.36     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -4.15    32.35    -0.99    56.79     3.93     0.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.79    54.29    -5.71    55.27     3.79   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.31    39.78     3.47    54.87     4.00    -1.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.66    42.78    -6.00    53.62     4.03   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.55    34.50     1.31    50.35     3.88    -9.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.86R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.63    30.18    -1.71    47.20     3.82   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.93R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.74    47.32    -1.37    48.26     4.12   -20.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.08R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.95    28.20    -1.06    45.40     3.84   -15.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.59R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.54    48.75    -1.12    40.86     3.85   -32.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.35R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.25     4.51   -17.54    27.32     3.61   -53.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.52  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.29    25.98   -14.70    22.23     3.76   -47.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.48  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.28    84.20    10.65    82.78     4.05    26.10    16.73    66.72    99.83    75.04P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.89    86.00     8.56    86.20     4.29    28.21    48.41    87.68    99.99    91.13P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.52    64.64     1.35    83.78     4.09    27.07    23.70    74.50    99.93    82.70P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.79    80.13     0.55    79.13     3.97    12.64     2.85    25.96    98.34    43.38P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.91    80.89    15.15    80.20     4.24    28.56     8.26    42.61    99.31    57.07P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.77    46.73     3.32    71.87     4.02    17.29     0.03     1.33    70.14    19.67P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.49    52.09     4.07    70.98     4.01    14.92     0.02     0.91    61.04    15.44P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.24    78.67     7.06    69.23     4.00     5.85     0.01     0.25    36.83     6.92P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.56    39.32    -4.51    67.58     4.01     5.87     0.00     0.03    25.02     6.59P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.16    67.94    10.39    61.03     3.92     0.91     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.81    37.89    -0.72    63.29     4.18     3.86     0.00     0.00     5.76     1.38P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.78    47.15     6.97    60.38     3.94     3.97     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.10    60.10     2.28    57.90     3.89    -8.03     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.44    39.79    -9.11    60.13     4.29    -9.74     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.08    50.95    -2.72    57.99     4.11    -9.19     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.17    55.96     1.70    55.49     3.90   -10.50     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.38    49.45     2.87    52.86     4.07   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.65    34.99    -9.22    53.82     3.99   -17.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.87    19.76    -9.90    52.59     3.97   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.54    13.02   -11.42    53.22     4.05   -10.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.21     5.83   -11.11    52.83     4.30    -5.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.03R    0.03  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.48    39.65     2.27    45.30     3.73   -19.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.46R    1.46  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.01    24.94    -5.71    41.28     3.80   -29.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.11R   12.11  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.81     1.38   -12.75    33.99     4.13   -28.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.37R   86.37  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       9.00    83.20    13.68    84.29     4.02    31.90    71.57    99.76    78.19P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.13    74.17     3.20    79.44     4.06    18.62    15.79    94.52    32.63P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.57    27.59    -1.80    77.29     3.79    28.02     7.25    90.46    35.97P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.60    34.84    -2.35    75.50     4.07    21.73     3.65    78.75    25.59P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.44    72.14     9.30    74.36     4.03    18.03     1.33    68.17    14.02P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.48    82.45     2.60    69.14     3.93    -0.57     0.05    15.23     2.25P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.46    83.40     4.64    65.66     3.41    -5.99     0.00     2.35     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.56    35.14     1.45    68.62     3.74    14.87     0.02    14.66     3.50P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.65    52.93     4.86    66.00     3.52     8.08     0.00     2.95     0.52P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       9.10    82.96     4.66    64.28     3.74    -7.64     0.00     1.31     0.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.41    51.96     1.65    70.13     4.54    11.54     0.35    26.90     6.04P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.05    54.81    -1.09    64.86     3.80    -0.13     0.00     1.88     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.29    40.90     2.12    64.84     3.81     7.82     0.00     2.38     0.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.92    38.04     3.63    62.10     3.78     6.67     0.00     0.38     0.07P    0.05R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.08    67.20     4.73    59.45     4.29    -8.75     0.00     0.27     0.05P    1.57R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.02    55.38     0.25    54.59     3.44   -13.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.41R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.30    52.14    -3.89    56.78     3.94   -14.32     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.18R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.39    28.12    -2.40    55.36     3.91    -5.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.56R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.39    21.95    -8.43    54.56     3.77   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.30R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.08    13.40    -6.67    55.34     3.99    -2.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.62R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.06    26.62   -12.31    49.82     3.40   -23.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.98R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.48    44.50     0.97    49.92     3.67   -17.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.03R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.97    11.82   -14.59    51.98     4.07   -15.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.28R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.80    22.13    -4.20    32.45     3.31   -41.06     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.93