Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 5 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.06    99.78     2.95   101.43     3.52    56.84   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.71    19.28    -5.32    80.23     3.51    54.28     0.00    98.81    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.53    67.16    15.22    68.33     4.00    34.37     0.00     1.13    78.08    93.12    99.48     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.14    38.84    -3.68    63.09     3.84    16.21     0.00     0.05    12.31    53.00    91.10     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.92    30.59     0.52    61.33     3.86    20.06     0.00     0.01     7.49    35.77    84.16     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.23    66.53     7.67    56.36     4.01     8.50     0.00     0.00     0.54     5.08    34.12     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.51    84.34     9.57    55.20     4.15     3.05     0.00     0.00     0.54     3.64    22.89     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.51    13.20    -7.81    56.86     4.04    12.29     0.00     0.00     0.81     7.05    42.78     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -4.99    26.10    -5.68    54.82     4.13     5.41     0.00     0.00     0.26     2.23    21.55     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.59    77.10     3.89    49.31     3.72    -9.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.08     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.32    62.67    -1.15    48.88     3.77    -9.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.18     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.73    46.76    -4.58    49.28     3.93    -9.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.55     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.54    64.24    -5.21    45.15     3.70   -19.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.04R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.06    66.75    -1.20    43.70     3.84   -21.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.35R    0.02  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.78    36.18     4.53    37.73     3.65   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.82R    1.69  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.08    21.45    -2.51    38.55     3.94   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.02R    2.04  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.46    27.98    -3.06    36.87     3.75   -21.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.58R    4.22  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.44    28.52    -3.26    35.89     3.66   -24.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.36R    5.21  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.43    43.59     0.82    33.95     3.89   -30.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.30R   16.56  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.19    28.96    -1.71    29.54     3.63   -34.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.50R   70.26  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.99    80.67     8.13    86.86     3.97    31.27    51.11    93.94   100.00    95.77P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.62    64.67     3.20    86.27     4.02    33.14    46.88    91.60   100.00    94.50P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.39    71.35     2.33    76.97     4.05    14.93     1.32     7.84    95.21    29.56P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.84    29.93     9.74    75.74     3.98    36.11     0.64     5.56    93.37    37.60P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.10    74.63     5.12    73.41     4.06    11.58     0.06     0.97    78.54    16.97P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.85    62.24     1.43    68.81     4.08     5.67     0.00     0.06    36.12     7.16P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.10    67.31    -2.07    67.48     4.05    -1.74     0.00     0.01    22.18     3.84P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.20    71.97     6.21    66.83     4.03     4.79     0.00     0.01    19.55     3.28P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.02    50.07    -2.89    66.87     4.06     2.85     0.00     0.01    20.11     4.44P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.45    52.31     4.39    65.54     4.07     7.31     0.00     0.00    14.44     2.77P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.06    50.46    -2.29    65.83     4.01     1.87     0.00     0.01    13.34     2.69P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.16    32.97    -6.56    62.71     4.01    -0.96     0.00     0.00     3.79     0.87P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.15    67.96     4.34    61.57     4.02    -5.41     0.00     0.00     1.60     0.24P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.26    51.80     8.03    60.06     3.98     3.69     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.16P    0.15R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.73    43.19    -1.63    59.68     4.02    -4.00     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.12P    0.23R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.02    55.18    -1.73    58.25     3.93   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    1.01R    0.00  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.79    23.28    -3.22    53.48     3.95    -7.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.11R    0.53  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.52    44.26    -2.21    52.70     3.94   -15.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.74R    1.00  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.88    16.57    -9.56    53.27     3.99    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   11.64R    0.50  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.24    36.56    -3.02    52.52     4.00   -13.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.93R    1.32  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.74    30.87    -5.52    52.46     4.01   -15.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.84R    1.51  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.53    31.77     0.59    49.31     3.90   -13.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.46R    4.91  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.92    38.60    -6.61    44.94     3.95   -32.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.83R   41.35  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.81    19.74    -6.18    43.92     3.90   -23.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.99R   48.87  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.59    95.63     9.19    82.16     4.27    20.15    56.23    75.50    98.11    80.00P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.91    58.10     4.13    77.98     3.99    28.85    16.96    42.00    89.58    54.90P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.81    66.65    11.29    75.75     3.96    29.23     8.04    22.22    78.96    35.70P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.46    52.16    -0.75    74.38     3.95    20.09     3.50    11.77    65.25    26.23P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.03    75.22     4.10    74.95     3.90    17.08     4.30    13.96    69.72    26.05P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.20    44.36     8.45    75.93     3.84    35.35     8.35    23.86    82.87    41.17P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.65    33.70    -4.03    72.51     3.71    19.75     0.93     4.30    46.94    17.62P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.92    93.42     5.89    72.04     4.23     4.06     1.39     4.75    38.11     9.38P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.38    39.08     3.11    69.71     4.20    21.03     0.30     1.59    24.36     7.53P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.28    36.13     1.20    66.02     3.60    14.76     0.00     0.01     3.55     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.96    59.16     6.13    64.78     3.94    10.13     0.00     0.03     2.38     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.79    37.87    -4.10    60.54     4.04     0.33     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.80    33.76    -0.56    56.71     3.90     0.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.87    54.63    -5.62    55.28     3.79   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.44    39.66     3.32    54.88     4.03    -1.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.70    42.61    -6.01    53.65     4.04   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.43    35.12     1.43    50.31     3.85    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.84R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.59    30.12    -1.66    47.17     3.81   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.95R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.82    46.86    -1.47    48.28     4.13   -20.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.03R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.88    28.64    -0.90    45.41     3.82   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.58R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.51    48.58    -1.00    40.88     3.85   -32.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.38R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.34     4.31   -17.58    27.27     3.61   -53.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   20.45  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.14    26.34   -14.55    22.17     3.73   -47.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.55  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.31    84.07    10.70    82.79     4.06    26.11    16.72    66.44    99.88    74.71P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.68    85.50     8.25    86.22     4.29    28.23    48.28    87.66    99.99    90.96P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.57    64.70     1.46    83.82     4.07    27.10    23.73    74.85    99.93    82.88P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.76    80.03     0.56    79.13     3.99    12.65     2.96    25.68    98.38    43.51P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.81    80.52    15.01    80.24     4.20    28.64     8.25    42.77    99.30    57.22P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.93    45.98     3.07    71.92     4.05    17.35     0.03     1.39    70.38    20.03P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.50    52.15     4.10    70.97     4.02    14.91     0.03     0.92    60.99    15.61P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.32    78.98     7.20    69.20     3.96     5.82     0.00     0.23    36.69     6.70P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.50    39.39    -4.43    67.57     4.00     5.85     0.00     0.06    25.07     6.47P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.09    67.62    10.22    61.06     3.92     0.97     0.00     0.00     1.23     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.57    39.17    -0.36    63.22     4.18     3.75     0.00     0.00     5.58     1.20P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.64    47.65     7.20    60.40     3.94     3.98     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.96    59.30     2.06    57.90     3.88    -8.02     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.72    38.58    -9.60    60.18     4.23    -9.66     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.05    50.90    -2.81    57.98     4.10    -9.20     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.23    56.22     1.70    55.47     3.91   -10.52     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.03    50.83     3.39    52.80     4.08   -12.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.58    35.38    -9.06    53.82     3.99   -17.81     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.78    20.27    -9.82    52.55     3.97   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.56    13.10   -11.43    53.25     4.04   -10.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.16     5.82   -11.06    52.77     4.30    -5.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.46    39.63     2.35    45.31     3.77   -19.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.46R    1.46  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.04    24.56    -5.79    41.27     3.80   -29.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.40R   12.40  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.90     1.28   -12.90    34.00     4.16   -28.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.09R   86.09  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.54    81.81    12.98    84.39     4.04    32.09    72.18    99.77    78.80P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.16    74.03     3.31    79.39     4.08    18.55    15.57    94.39    32.54P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.49    28.05    -1.60    77.26     3.77    27.97     6.85    90.56    35.74P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.41    35.76    -2.06    75.46     4.05    21.67     3.56    78.28    25.04P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.31    71.53     9.11    74.42     4.01    18.09     1.39    68.74    14.24P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.47    82.33     2.50    69.18     3.93    -0.53     0.06    15.72     2.33P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.63    83.94     4.89    65.61     3.42    -6.07     0.00     2.30     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.74    34.65     1.21    68.64     3.77    14.88     0.00    14.82     3.50P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.71    53.26     4.93    65.94     3.49     8.00     0.00     2.80     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.97    82.58     4.51    64.31     3.74    -7.64     0.00     1.30     0.15P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.35    51.32     1.63    70.15     4.53    11.56     0.39    26.61     6.07P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.38    56.13    -0.67    64.79     3.83    -0.23     0.00     1.87     0.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.14    41.30     2.32    64.79     3.81     7.75     0.00     2.27     0.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.03    37.67     3.41    62.12     3.79     6.70     0.00     0.37     0.06P    0.09R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.90    66.68     4.45    59.52     4.29    -8.63     0.00     0.19     0.03P    1.44R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       0.95    54.81     0.23    54.56     3.45   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.58R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.15    51.43    -4.18    56.83     3.95   -14.26     0.00     0.02     0.00P    5.26R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.32    28.25    -2.27    55.36     3.96    -5.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.13R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.09    22.70    -7.94    54.52     3.75   -10.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.29R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.94    13.81    -6.46    55.30     3.99    -2.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.84R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.27    25.86   -12.67    49.84     3.42   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.29R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.37    44.68     1.12    49.93     3.67   -17.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.69R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.96    11.83   -14.60    52.00     4.09   -15.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.40R    0.03  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.71    22.32    -4.16    32.44     3.29   -41.08     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.93