Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 4 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.06    99.77     2.97   101.43     3.52    56.88   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.66    19.67    -5.27    80.20     3.50    54.15     0.00    98.73    99.95   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.65    67.98    15.39    68.31     4.01    34.34     0.00     1.20    77.70    92.92    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.15    39.01    -3.72    63.09     3.87    16.22     0.00     0.06    12.49    53.37    90.88     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.77    31.18     0.68    61.28     3.90    19.97     0.00     0.00     7.73    35.30    83.39     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.17    66.25     7.49    56.42     4.01     8.56     0.00     0.00     0.47     5.03    34.63     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.36    83.42     9.36    55.23     4.14     3.08     0.00     0.00     0.53     3.74    23.34     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.64    13.12    -7.99    56.91     4.04    12.35     0.00     0.00     0.84     7.24    43.14     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.01    25.93    -5.75    54.80     4.11     5.39     0.00     0.00     0.29     2.27    21.21     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.48    76.68     3.71    49.31     3.71    -9.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.11     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.32    62.63    -1.19    48.89     3.76    -9.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.18     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.64    47.24    -4.44    49.28     3.92    -9.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.52     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.55    64.34    -5.18    45.16     3.70   -19.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.06R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.03    66.48    -1.24    43.71     3.78   -21.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.30R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.71    36.32     4.69    37.72     3.64   -13.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.79R    1.69  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.18    20.94    -2.67    38.59     3.92   -16.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.69R    1.92  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.48    27.97    -3.13    36.87     3.75   -21.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.59R    4.05  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.50    28.17    -3.28    35.87     3.67   -24.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.73R    5.33  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.29    44.25     1.02    33.91     3.91   -30.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.40R   16.91  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.07    29.43    -1.46    29.50     3.65   -34.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.40R   70.07  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.80    80.09     7.81    86.90     3.94    31.35    51.54    93.97   100.00    95.78P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.68    64.84     3.27    86.23     3.98    33.04    46.35    91.62   100.00    94.54P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.38    71.50     2.28    76.99     4.04    14.95     1.38     7.58    95.30    29.33P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.92    29.49     9.67    75.79     3.99    36.17     0.65     5.65    93.40    37.95P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.06    74.48     5.04    73.44     4.03    11.65     0.08     1.07    79.21    16.89P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.91    62.42     1.44    68.81     4.06     5.68     0.00     0.05    35.98     7.18P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.03    66.90    -2.11    67.49     4.06    -1.73     0.00     0.02    22.38     3.97P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.13    71.72     6.08    66.86     4.08     4.81     0.00     0.02    19.89     3.44P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2       0.06    50.42    -2.65    66.82     4.06     2.75     0.00     0.01    19.35     4.15P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.37    51.84     4.36    65.56     4.09     7.32     0.00     0.00    14.38     2.79P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.16    50.88    -2.13    65.81     3.99     1.84     0.00     0.00    12.93     2.59P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.23    32.64    -6.72    62.76     4.00    -0.88     0.00     0.00     3.90     0.81P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.13    67.34     4.41    61.56     4.03    -5.40     0.00     0.00     1.54     0.21P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.26    51.83     8.08    60.04     3.99     3.63     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.18P    0.19R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.57    43.85    -1.38    59.61     4.00    -4.06     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.16P    0.22R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.28    56.24    -1.37    58.19     3.96   -10.86     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    1.22R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.71    23.57    -3.09    53.43     3.93    -7.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.15R    0.49  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.36    45.05    -2.03    52.69     3.94   -15.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.11R    1.08  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.76    16.40    -9.41    53.31     3.97    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.43R    0.50  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.27    36.62    -3.08    52.47     4.00   -13.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.22R    1.28  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.80    30.62    -5.59    52.46     4.00   -15.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.98R    1.56  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.84    30.61     0.15    49.39     3.92   -13.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.65R    4.75  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.12    37.40    -6.94    44.99     3.95   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.60R   41.01  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.71    19.97    -6.08    43.88     3.89   -23.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.15R   49.33  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.61    95.66     9.24    82.11     4.26    20.12    55.83    75.41    98.15    79.95P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.17    59.27     4.56    77.92     4.01    28.76    17.08    41.51    89.29    54.65P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.74    66.33    11.27    75.77     3.96    29.23     8.24    22.57    79.61    36.06P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.61    52.30    -0.50    74.37     3.99    20.07     3.62    12.08    64.91    26.24P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.13    75.61     4.20    74.92     3.91    17.07     4.29    14.05    69.38    26.09P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.18    44.36     8.45    75.91     3.82    35.30     8.29    23.85    83.00    41.19P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.79    33.01    -4.22    72.50     3.72    19.75     0.90     4.22    47.29    17.54P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.94    93.41     5.91    72.07     4.26     4.10     1.43     4.80    38.43     9.43P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.14    40.19     3.51    69.60     4.18    20.86     0.31     1.49    23.62     7.39P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.42    35.50     1.01    66.10     3.62    14.85     0.00     0.00     3.78     0.95P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.74    58.13     5.81    64.81     3.94    10.14     0.00     0.01     2.35     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.67    38.35    -3.95    60.55     4.03     0.34     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -4.00    32.47    -0.83    56.78     3.92     0.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.73    53.81    -5.79    55.26     3.80   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.32    40.22     3.48    54.90     4.00    -1.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.71    42.62    -6.10    53.66     4.04   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.50    34.79     1.31    50.36     3.85    -9.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.81R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.61    30.36    -1.70    47.12     3.81   -14.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.30R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.86    46.76    -1.54    48.28     4.11   -20.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.84R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.93    28.49    -1.00    45.39     3.79   -15.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.20R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.44    48.87    -0.95    40.85     3.84   -32.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.62R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.25     4.55   -17.53    27.27     3.61   -53.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   20.81  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.24    25.94   -14.64    22.22     3.75   -47.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.19  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.40    84.33    10.80    82.79     4.03    26.12    16.35    66.77    99.85    75.11P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.61    85.31     8.14    86.25     4.27    28.29    49.24    87.99    99.99    91.41P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.78    65.58     1.76    83.73     4.08    26.99    23.26    74.32    99.90    82.51P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.77    79.90     0.53    79.15     3.98    12.69     2.86    25.90    98.37    44.02P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.85    80.78    15.06    80.20     4.22    28.54     8.22    42.47    99.38    56.93P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.88    45.95     3.17    71.90     4.02    17.32     0.04     1.32    70.21    19.75P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.38    51.58     3.97    71.04     4.04    15.01     0.03     0.97    61.34    15.24P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.29    79.00     7.08    69.20     3.98     5.85     0.00     0.18    36.75     6.57P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.34    40.56    -4.24    67.52     4.02     5.81     0.00     0.07    24.83     6.54P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.23    67.92    10.49    60.98     3.94     0.84     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.58    39.18    -0.37    63.17     4.22     3.68     0.00     0.00     5.52     1.18P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.70    47.71     7.09    60.41     3.95     4.02     0.00     0.00     1.09     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.96    59.44     2.05    57.92     3.91    -8.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.76    38.69    -9.63    60.20     4.25    -9.61     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.06    50.35    -2.99    58.06     4.12    -9.08     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.22    56.11     1.65    55.49     3.89   -10.49     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.34    49.27     2.94    52.89     4.11   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.60    35.16    -9.07    53.86     3.98   -17.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.84    20.05    -9.87    52.54     3.97   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.42    13.35   -11.22    53.17     4.05   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.18     5.73   -11.08    52.77     4.31    -5.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.41    40.08     2.41    45.30     3.74   -19.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.43R    1.43  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.09    24.63    -5.74    41.29     3.81   -29.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.19R   12.19  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.89     1.30   -12.95    33.98     4.14   -28.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.35R   86.35  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.82    82.60    13.40    84.34     4.04    31.99    72.02    99.77    78.51P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.13    74.00     3.23    79.42     4.04    18.60    15.68    94.39    32.51P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.32    28.59    -1.34    77.23     3.77    27.89     6.86    90.46    35.56P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.72    34.55    -2.51    75.53     4.06    21.78     3.62    78.79    25.52P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.21    71.33     9.03    74.45     4.03    18.13     1.40    69.01    14.31P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.59    82.62     2.68    69.12     3.94    -0.61     0.05    15.19     2.22P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.61    83.99     4.78    65.62     3.44    -6.06     0.00     2.30     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.73    34.41     1.18    68.64     3.76    14.88     0.01    14.43     3.40P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.76    53.00     5.03    65.95     3.52     8.02     0.00     2.82     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       9.08    82.91     4.62    64.34     3.70    -7.59     0.00     1.24     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.19    50.95     1.37    70.18     4.54    11.60     0.36    26.94     6.21P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.20    55.10    -0.93    64.83     3.83    -0.16     0.00     1.93     0.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -1.99    42.10     2.56    64.73     3.81     7.65     0.00     2.14     0.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.92    38.18     3.59    62.11     3.77     6.66     0.00     0.34     0.07P    0.07R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.76    65.98     4.23    59.54     4.29    -8.60     0.00     0.25     0.03P    1.40R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       0.96    54.90     0.24    54.54     3.45   -13.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.68R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.17    51.24    -4.06    56.80     3.99   -14.29     0.00     0.02     0.00P    5.24R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.31    28.26    -2.22    55.33     3.92    -5.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.95R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.13    22.91    -8.01    54.47     3.75   -10.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.72R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.06    13.62    -6.63    55.32     3.98    -2.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.71R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.30    25.50   -12.66    49.87     3.41   -23.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.95R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.20    45.53     1.31    49.88     3.67   -17.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.98R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.93    11.71   -14.54    51.98     4.09   -15.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.30R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.85    21.83    -4.34    32.51     3.33   -40.98     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.94