Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 3 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.11    99.79     2.98   101.48     3.52    56.90   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.64    19.92    -5.21    80.20     3.51    54.17     0.00    98.76    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.64    67.72    15.36    68.28     4.02    34.30     0.00     1.17    77.70    92.89    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.05    39.41    -3.55    63.08     3.84    16.20     0.00     0.07    12.40    53.20    91.01     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.96    30.28     0.50    61.31     3.86    20.01     0.00     0.01     7.72    35.46    83.78     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.26    66.61     7.68    56.34     4.02     8.49     0.00     0.00     0.48     5.15    34.11     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.49    84.21     9.51    55.19     4.15     3.05     0.00     0.00     0.58     3.65    23.17     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.67    12.98    -8.03    56.89     4.03    12.35     0.00     0.00     0.89     7.14    42.97     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.12    25.59    -5.86    54.84     4.12     5.43     0.00     0.00     0.26     2.41    21.67     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.50    76.71     3.75    49.34     3.70    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.16     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.28    62.37    -1.25    48.89     3.76    -9.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.19     0.02R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.41    48.36    -4.02    49.21     3.90    -9.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.40     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.39    63.38    -5.43    45.18     3.71   -19.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.00R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.00    66.22    -1.29    43.75     3.83   -21.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     2.43R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.64    36.94     4.72    37.72     3.64   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.19R    1.80  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.07    21.43    -2.51    38.55     3.92   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.94R    1.99  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.56    27.43    -3.22    36.88     3.75   -21.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.80R    4.03  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.61    27.66    -3.51    35.94     3.68   -24.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.06R    5.11  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.51    43.01     0.61    33.97     3.90   -30.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.05R   16.24  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.98    30.00    -1.24    29.47     3.64   -34.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.46R   70.78  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.80    80.35     7.82    86.86     3.96    31.27    51.00    94.06   100.00    95.82P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.61    64.67     3.20    86.27     4.00    33.11    46.96    91.80   100.00    94.59P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.36    71.25     2.23    76.98     4.02    14.97     1.26     7.61    95.39    29.56P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -5.06    28.95     9.47    75.74     3.98    36.11     0.72     5.37    93.43    37.78P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.19    75.11     5.24    73.40     4.04    11.57     0.07     1.06    78.69    16.96P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.89    62.24     1.42    68.81     4.05     5.67     0.00     0.06    35.88     6.94P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.19    67.54    -1.92    67.45     4.07    -1.80     0.00     0.02    22.35     3.91P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.25    72.08     6.31    66.81     4.06     4.75     0.00     0.01    19.54     3.29P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.13    49.48    -2.97    66.89     4.05     2.85     0.00     0.01    20.09     4.22P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.33    51.53     4.13    65.57     4.07     7.34     0.00     0.01    14.27     2.88P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1      -0.01    50.34    -2.32    65.87     4.01     1.93     0.00     0.00    13.19     2.66P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.01    33.70    -6.38    62.70     4.01    -0.98     0.00     0.00     3.86     0.83P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.20    68.06     4.49    61.57     4.03    -5.42     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.25P    0.04R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.09    50.85     7.81    60.08     4.00     3.69     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.14P    0.17R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.67    43.17    -1.48    59.66     3.97    -3.99     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.14P    0.22R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.26    56.07    -1.36    58.19     3.95   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    1.19R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.83    22.89    -3.29    53.48     3.92    -7.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.93R    0.54  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.33    45.28    -1.96    52.66     3.94   -15.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.32R    1.05  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.74    16.53    -9.37    53.29     3.99    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.90R    0.51  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.34    35.98    -3.18    52.52     3.97   -13.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.50R    1.25  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.72    30.87    -5.47    52.47     4.00   -15.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.63R    1.48  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.68    31.20     0.38    49.38     3.91   -13.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.92R    4.73  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.90    38.44    -6.63    44.93     3.95   -32.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.06R   41.67  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.80    20.12    -6.19    43.92     3.90   -23.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.13R   48.77  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.74    96.05     9.40    82.04     4.25    20.01    55.32    74.88    98.04    79.49P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.99    58.29     4.27    78.02     3.99    28.89    17.76    42.62    89.68    55.38P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.79    66.42    11.29    75.75     3.96    29.20     8.19    22.26    79.39    35.76P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.56    52.45    -0.60    74.38     3.97    20.06     3.60    12.09    65.43    26.74P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.25    76.02     4.39    74.88     3.95    17.01     4.26    13.94    69.33    25.89P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.17    44.61     8.55    75.89     3.82    35.30     8.24    23.62    82.93    41.03P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.84    32.93    -4.27    72.51     3.73    19.75     0.93     4.37    47.22    17.57P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.05    93.41     6.06    72.03     4.23     4.07     1.42     4.66    38.17     9.30P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.08    40.57     3.59    69.56     4.20    20.81     0.29     1.51    23.72     7.35P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.26    36.09     1.20    66.06     3.61    14.79     0.00     0.01     3.64     1.01P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.86    58.81     6.00    64.75     3.92    10.08     0.00     0.02     2.26     0.43P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.89    37.41    -4.26    60.58     4.03     0.37     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -4.07    31.93    -0.94    56.80     3.91     0.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.72    53.79    -5.79    55.27     3.79   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.52    39.30     3.18    54.99     4.03    -1.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.75    42.58    -6.12    53.65     4.02   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.43    35.20     1.42    50.35     3.86    -9.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.80R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.66    30.00    -1.76    47.22     3.82   -14.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.78R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.81    47.34    -1.40    48.24     4.12   -20.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.15R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.97    28.14    -1.02    45.39     3.80   -15.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.95R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.48    48.81    -1.09    40.89     3.87   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.11R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.16     4.47   -17.39    27.28     3.62   -53.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   20.68  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.23    26.25   -14.69    22.22     3.74   -47.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.32  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.42    84.33    10.75    82.80     4.03    26.13    16.47    66.62    99.84    74.81P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.82    86.11     8.43    86.24     4.28    28.27    48.79    87.86    99.99    91.19P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.49    64.13     1.37    83.80     4.06    27.10    23.59    74.64    99.95    82.60P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.58    79.32     0.27    79.21     3.98    12.74     2.96    26.17    98.41    43.85P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.91    80.85    15.13    80.19     4.23    28.56     8.12    42.26    99.38    57.05P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.86    46.22     3.21    71.88     4.03    17.32     0.03     1.25    70.39    19.87P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.72    53.14     4.43    70.93     4.03    14.85     0.03     0.92    60.57    15.21P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.20    78.60     6.97    69.22     3.98     5.85     0.00     0.24    37.07     6.80P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.43    40.01    -4.38    67.60     4.00     5.91     0.00     0.05    25.25     6.73P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.16    67.80    10.40    61.00     3.93     0.86     0.00     0.00     1.21     0.15P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.67    38.67    -0.48    63.21     4.18     3.75     0.00     0.00     5.57     1.25P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.72    47.27     7.06    60.36     3.94     3.95     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.01    59.62     2.13    57.91     3.88    -8.02     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.62    39.22    -9.42    60.16     4.25    -9.68     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.07    50.17    -2.99    58.08     4.11    -9.08     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.20    56.19     1.65    55.49     3.92   -10.48     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.20    49.98     3.17    52.81     4.10   -12.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.63    34.90    -9.15    53.82     3.98   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.74    20.25    -9.76    52.59     3.97   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.63    13.03   -11.46    53.22     4.04   -10.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.33     5.49   -11.31    52.82     4.31    -5.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.28    40.50     2.57    45.28     3.73   -19.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.51R    1.51  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.06    24.61    -5.79    41.28     3.78   -29.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.36R   12.36  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.82     1.31   -12.80    33.95     4.16   -28.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.08R   86.08  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.82    82.67    13.40    84.36     4.04    32.02    72.38    99.76    78.99P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.33    74.76     3.56    79.40     4.05    18.54    15.24    94.54    32.29P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.44    27.98    -1.56    77.29     3.78    28.00     7.14    90.53    35.58P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.70    34.68    -2.52    75.51     4.04    21.71     3.44    78.90    25.49P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.32    71.71     9.13    74.38     4.02    18.04     1.37    68.44    14.14P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.51    82.28     2.60    69.16     3.93    -0.55     0.07    15.34     2.18P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.73    84.30     5.05    65.60     3.44    -6.09     0.00     2.31     0.29P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.69    34.65     1.26    68.65     3.76    14.90     0.00    14.75     3.54P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.65    53.30     4.90    65.97     3.50     8.03     0.00     2.83     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.82    82.06     4.27    64.33     3.71    -7.59     0.00     1.28     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.35    51.74     1.57    70.14     4.53    11.58     0.35    26.74     6.14P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.29    55.68    -0.78    64.82     3.82    -0.19     0.00     1.92     0.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.01    42.03     2.55    64.79     3.80     7.70     0.00     2.09     0.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.92    38.05     3.57    62.10     3.78     6.68     0.00     0.36     0.05P    0.10R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.88    66.37     4.38    59.50     4.27    -8.61     0.00     0.19     0.03P    1.60R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       0.98    55.08     0.26    54.54     3.44   -13.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.61R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.33    51.99    -3.87    56.77     3.96   -14.33     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.27R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.29    28.49    -2.22    55.34     3.93    -5.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.08R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.46    21.77    -8.47    54.57     3.78   -10.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.30R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.05    13.75    -6.60    55.28     3.99    -2.94     0.00     0.01     0.00     8.09R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.33    25.80   -12.79    49.84     3.41   -23.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.37R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.34    45.07     1.21    49.93     3.69   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.43R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.10    11.37   -14.78    52.02     4.10   -15.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.13R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.67    22.25    -4.09    32.45     3.30   -41.08     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95