Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 2 April 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.02    99.78     2.90   101.48     3.50    56.90   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.61    19.80    -5.22    80.19     3.52    54.18     0.00    98.78    99.95   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.53    67.21    15.20    68.30     4.00    34.35     0.00     1.15    77.76    93.02    99.46     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.17    38.97    -3.77    63.12     3.83    16.25     0.00     0.07    12.31    53.55    91.27     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.78    31.26     0.73    61.31     3.88    20.01     0.00     0.00     7.85    35.38    83.82     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.00    65.35     7.31    56.43     4.03     8.60     0.00     0.00     0.53     5.28    34.55     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.56    84.21     9.69    55.16     4.15     3.00     0.00     0.00     0.51     3.51    22.90     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.43    13.72    -7.67    56.82     4.02    12.25     0.00     0.00     0.84     6.79    42.07     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.08    25.84    -5.82    54.85     4.10     5.43     0.00     0.00     0.24     2.34    22.05     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.62    77.17     3.93    49.33     3.71    -9.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.16     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.48    63.04    -0.91    48.83     3.72    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.11     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.64    47.30    -4.44    49.30     3.90    -9.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.50     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.43    63.68    -5.40    45.20     3.72   -19.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.97R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.05    66.50    -1.24    43.70     3.81   -21.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     2.26R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.82    35.97     4.52    37.70     3.63   -13.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.09R    1.71  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.09    21.21    -2.53    38.53     3.93   -16.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.38R    2.01  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.43    28.28    -3.03    36.87     3.75   -21.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.87R    4.17  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.61    27.62    -3.54    35.96     3.68   -24.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.64R    5.04  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.42    43.36     0.78    33.94     3.90   -30.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.26R   16.49  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.09    29.57    -1.49    29.48     3.62   -34.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.48R   70.54  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.86    79.89     7.90    86.86     3.97    31.26    51.26    93.97   100.00    95.85P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.60    64.56     3.20    86.23     3.99    33.05    46.61    91.43   100.00    94.31P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.39    71.38     2.30    77.03     4.06    15.03     1.41     7.93    95.18    29.66P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.81    30.08     9.85    75.71     4.00    36.09     0.66     5.60    93.31    37.77P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.12    74.55     5.11    73.41     4.03    11.59     0.07     1.00    78.90    17.11P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       3.06    62.99     1.71    68.76     4.03     5.59     0.00     0.04    35.33     6.87P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       3.88    66.30    -2.32    67.50     4.07    -1.71     0.00     0.01    22.49     3.82P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.29    72.44     6.38    66.83     4.04     4.78     0.00     0.00    19.92     3.50P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.05    50.20    -2.87    66.88     4.06     2.83     0.00     0.01    20.10     4.17P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.32    51.55     4.19    65.56     4.09     7.31     0.00     0.00    14.59     2.89P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.03    50.44    -2.29    65.82     4.00     1.88     0.00     0.00    13.12     2.61P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.10    33.07    -6.49    62.71     4.02    -0.94     0.00     0.00     3.81     0.83P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.20    67.82     4.47    61.54     4.02    -5.49     0.00     0.00     1.54     0.25P    0.09R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.12    50.97     7.88    60.11     4.01     3.71     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.22P    0.15R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.78    42.75    -1.64    59.67     3.99    -3.99     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.11P    0.20R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.38    56.60    -1.18    58.16     3.97   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    1.16R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.75    23.66    -3.15    53.44     3.95    -7.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.41R    0.54  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.45    44.80    -2.18    52.67     3.94   -15.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.00R    1.04  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.82    16.23    -9.47    53.32     3.99    -9.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   11.73R    0.54  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.46    35.74    -3.32    52.56     4.00   -13.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.87R    1.36  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.48    31.98    -5.13    52.41     3.98   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.23R    1.49  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.75    30.89     0.21    49.41     3.91   -12.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.29R    4.80  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.25    36.87    -7.16    45.01     3.96   -31.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.29R   40.79  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.67    20.29    -6.01    43.88     3.88   -23.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.57R   49.43  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.57    95.65     9.14    82.15     4.25    20.13    56.38    75.70    98.16    80.16P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.30    59.90     4.79    77.93     4.01    28.74    16.93    41.85    89.42    54.74P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.71    66.13    11.17    75.75     3.94    29.23     7.94    22.39    79.43    36.03P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.60    52.64    -0.50    74.37     3.97    20.05     3.57    12.03    64.95    26.19P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.23    75.99     4.34    74.89     3.93    17.00     4.20    13.64    68.91    25.57P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.22    44.30     8.47    75.90     3.82    35.33     8.36    23.55    83.03    41.11P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.67    33.39    -4.03    72.50     3.73    19.73     0.90     4.38    47.11    17.67P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.77    93.13     5.66    72.09     4.22     4.16     1.42     4.79    38.63     9.55P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.21    39.91     3.41    69.63     4.21    20.92     0.30     1.66    24.01     7.51P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.48    35.25     0.99    66.07     3.60    14.79     0.00     0.01     3.76     0.97P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.82    58.50     5.91    64.76     3.96    10.08     0.01     0.02     2.42     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.73    38.02    -3.98    60.55     4.03     0.32     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.95    32.62    -0.72    56.75     3.91     0.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.74    54.00    -5.88    55.29     3.79   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.21    40.49     3.67    54.87     4.00    -1.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.68    42.65    -6.04    53.66     4.04   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.71    33.94     1.02    50.38     3.87    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.82R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.63    30.10    -1.81    47.16     3.79   -14.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.07R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.73    47.47    -1.31    48.25     4.15   -20.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.18R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.94    28.19    -0.97    45.40     3.81   -15.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.64R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.64    48.07    -1.27    40.92     3.86   -32.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.08R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.24     4.61   -17.50    27.28     3.60   -53.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.49  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.17    26.24   -14.57    22.19     3.74   -47.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.51  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.29    83.90    10.62    82.79     4.05    26.13    16.55    66.48    99.85    74.83P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.94    86.19     8.64    86.19     4.29    28.19    48.46    87.51    99.99    90.81P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.45    64.07     1.24    83.82     4.08    27.11    23.73    74.84    99.91    82.94P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.78    79.93     0.57    79.16     4.02    12.72     2.98    26.04    98.31    43.90P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.94    80.83    15.18    80.18     4.24    28.54     8.19    42.62    99.34    57.05P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.99    45.51     3.02    71.90     4.04    17.36     0.06     1.34    70.27    20.21P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.47    52.19     4.01    70.98     4.01    14.90     0.03     0.92    61.14    15.19P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.32    79.07     7.13    69.21     3.97     5.84     0.00     0.20    36.83     6.72P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.26    40.71    -4.09    67.54     3.99     5.82     0.00     0.06    25.05     6.47P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.16    67.93    10.37    61.04     3.95     0.91     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.63    38.98    -0.46    63.22     4.19     3.76     0.00     0.00     5.59     1.24P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.54    48.01     7.33    60.35     3.93     3.93     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.99    59.55     2.10    57.92     3.92    -8.02     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.78    38.41    -9.66    60.18     4.26    -9.65     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.10    50.20    -2.95    58.05     4.11    -9.12     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.05    55.68     1.49    55.49     3.91   -10.49     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.19    50.13     3.17    52.85     4.09   -12.55     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.68    34.72    -9.23    53.85     3.99   -17.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.97    19.66   -10.07    52.64     3.97   -14.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.53    13.16   -11.43    53.22     4.03   -10.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.11     5.98   -10.96    52.74     4.29    -5.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.30    40.35     2.57    45.27     3.73   -19.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.44R    1.44  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.04    24.54    -5.74    41.25     3.77   -29.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.27R   12.27  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.84     1.38   -12.86    33.97     4.13   -28.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.27R   86.27  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.59    82.09    13.07    84.38     4.04    32.05    72.23    99.81    78.88P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.23    74.53     3.41    79.36     4.05    18.51    15.26    94.38    31.62P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.55    27.89    -1.76    77.29     3.80    28.03     6.95    90.57    35.95P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.83    33.99    -2.67    75.53     4.07    21.75     3.75    78.67    25.93P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.14    71.31     8.90    74.40     4.03    18.10     1.37    68.53    14.07P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.59    82.79     2.67    69.12     3.95    -0.60     0.07    15.39     2.31P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.46    83.64     4.70    65.67     3.44    -6.00     0.00     2.42     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.68    34.77     1.30    68.65     3.77    14.89     0.00    14.73     3.47P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.57    52.70     4.76    65.99     3.50     8.06     0.00     2.87     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       9.00    82.62     4.55    64.34     3.72    -7.60     0.00     1.34     0.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.42    51.87     1.71    70.13     4.53    11.54     0.36    26.63     6.10P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.39    56.34    -0.62    64.79     3.81    -0.22     0.00     1.86     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -1.96    42.21     2.63    64.74     3.79     7.67     0.00     2.17     0.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.85    38.23     3.69    62.10     3.77     6.67     0.00     0.41     0.06P    0.04R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.98    67.04     4.58    59.52     4.26    -8.63     0.00     0.20     0.03P    1.47R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.14    55.66     0.48    54.55     3.44   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.52R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.30    51.93    -3.91    56.78     3.97   -14.31     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.08R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.32    28.50    -2.32    55.37     3.95    -5.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.10R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.18    22.50    -8.13    54.50     3.76   -10.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.67R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.99    13.70    -6.55    55.32     3.98    -2.89     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.83R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.23    26.00   -12.61    49.84     3.41   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.38R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.29    45.30     1.20    49.92     3.66   -17.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.07R    0.01  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.18    11.43   -14.89    52.02     4.09   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.85R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.77    22.11    -4.20    32.45     3.30   -41.07     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95