Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 31 March 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      16.98    99.77     2.85   101.45     3.52    56.91   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.63    19.86    -5.18    80.20     3.49    54.17     0.00    98.82    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.52    67.41    15.22    68.31     3.99    34.36     0.00     1.12    77.59    93.07    99.52     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.11    38.99    -3.66    63.11     3.86    16.22     0.00     0.05    12.81    53.53    90.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.77    31.38     0.70    61.26     3.86    19.95     0.00     0.00     7.46    34.97    83.78     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.28    66.84     7.75    56.34     4.05     8.50     0.00     0.00     0.56     5.16    34.02     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.41    83.85     9.42    55.24     4.15     3.13     0.00     0.00     0.55     3.68    23.15     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.63    12.85    -8.02    56.90     4.02    12.36     0.00     0.00     0.80     7.09    42.98     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.09    25.50    -5.87    54.86     4.11     5.42     0.00     0.00     0.26     2.40    21.70     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.73    77.66     4.13    49.27     3.70   -10.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.19     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.46    63.12    -0.92    48.86     3.76    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.09     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.53    47.90    -4.24    49.25     3.91    -9.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.50     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.57    64.14    -5.22    45.14     3.74   -19.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.03R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       2.92    65.94    -1.38    43.69     3.80   -21.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.34R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.76    36.01     4.64    37.73     3.64   -13.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.01R    1.65  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.22    20.95    -2.72    38.63     3.94   -16.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.80R    1.88  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.45    28.17    -3.03    36.87     3.74   -21.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.06R    4.08  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.70    27.05    -3.64    35.94     3.67   -24.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.00R    5.11  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.43    43.39     0.71    33.94     3.92   -30.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.34R   16.73  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.07    29.45    -1.54    29.50     3.63   -34.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.37R   70.50  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.85    80.15     7.89    86.86     3.96    31.27    51.42    93.70   100.00    95.65P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.76    65.22     3.43    86.21     4.01    33.04    46.49    91.48   100.00    94.39P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.39    71.33     2.31    77.02     4.08    14.98     1.34     8.08    95.30    29.97P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.99    29.23     9.56    75.76     4.01    36.10     0.67     5.69    93.31    37.52P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.13    74.91     5.16    73.36     4.02    11.53     0.08     0.96    78.46    16.84P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.85    62.45     1.41    68.79     4.05     5.63     0.00     0.05    35.56     7.08P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.07    67.22    -2.10    67.51     4.05    -1.72     0.00     0.01    22.61     4.00P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.25    71.81     6.26    66.88     4.05     4.84     0.00     0.00    20.09     3.42P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.06    50.03    -2.90    66.87     4.05     2.84     0.00     0.02    20.21     4.37P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.45    52.25     4.41    65.52     4.05     7.28     0.00     0.00    14.16     2.71P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.10    50.85    -2.18    65.81     3.99     1.86     0.00     0.00    12.93     2.62P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.87    34.23    -6.22    62.72     4.02    -0.95     0.00     0.00     3.99     0.88P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.03    67.21     4.20    61.59     4.03    -5.38     0.00     0.00     1.62     0.26P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.06    51.02     7.74    60.10     4.01     3.73     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.17P    0.15R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.78    42.83    -1.71    59.68     4.00    -3.97     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.11P    0.19R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.40    56.79    -1.14    58.16     3.96   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    1.21R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.72    23.59    -3.12    53.44     3.93    -7.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   10.13R    0.51  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.44    44.52    -2.09    52.73     3.95   -15.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.69R    1.06  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.88    16.18    -9.57    53.31     3.97    -9.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.53R    0.51  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.44    35.67    -3.31    52.51     3.98   -13.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.03R    1.33  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.65    31.18    -5.34    52.43     3.98   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.09R    1.47  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.74    31.08     0.26    49.39     3.90   -13.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.81R    4.84  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.92    38.27    -6.60    44.90     3.95   -32.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.95R   42.10  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.90    19.42    -6.38    43.95     3.88   -23.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.14R   48.17  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.59    95.73     9.21    82.11     4.22    20.10    56.04    75.45    98.30    80.06P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.97    58.25     4.16    77.98     3.98    28.86    17.39    42.42    89.69    55.60P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.81    66.50    11.32    75.70     3.96    29.15     7.86    21.98    79.08    35.60P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.43    51.60    -0.71    74.39     3.94    20.09     3.50    11.90    65.46    26.34P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.15    75.78     4.27    74.92     3.91    17.06     4.13    13.69    69.49    25.87P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.16    44.46     8.55    75.93     3.84    35.32     8.47    24.13    83.06    41.19P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.49    34.05    -3.80    72.42     3.73    19.65     0.95     4.18    46.41    17.32P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.01    93.44     6.00    72.03     4.24     4.06     1.39     4.64    38.53     9.22P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.14    39.98     3.51    69.59     4.19    20.89     0.26     1.54    23.68     7.29P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.49    35.32     0.89    66.11     3.61    14.85     0.00     0.02     3.69     0.95P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.98    59.45     6.17    64.75     3.94    10.08     0.00     0.04     2.41     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.86    37.46    -4.19    60.62     4.06     0.40     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.91    32.89    -0.70    56.75     3.91     0.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.65    53.58    -5.97    55.28     3.80   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.44    39.75     3.33    54.93     4.03    -1.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.68    42.75    -6.06    53.63     4.02   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.65    34.19     1.09    50.43     3.89    -9.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.88R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.41    31.23    -1.41    47.14     3.84   -14.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.28R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.88    46.79    -1.57    48.26     4.14   -20.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.97R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.81    28.98    -0.83    45.42     3.83   -15.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.75R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.63    48.28    -1.17    40.91     3.84   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.91R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.28     4.31   -17.49    27.28     3.61   -53.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.26  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.13    26.36   -14.60    22.16     3.74   -47.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.73  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.16    83.68    10.42    82.82     4.05    26.19    16.62    66.79    99.85    75.01P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.71    85.62     8.26    86.23     4.24    28.25    48.97    87.89   100.00    91.16P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.71    65.05     1.66    83.79     4.05    27.08    23.37    74.69    99.90    82.55P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.75    79.89     0.53    79.09     3.98    12.62     2.86    25.24    98.38    43.19P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.89    80.95    15.11    80.22     4.22    28.58     8.13    42.91    99.39    57.36P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.81    46.41     3.29    71.87     4.02    17.29     0.03     1.36    70.02    19.96P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.41    51.73     3.91    71.02     4.02    15.00     0.02     0.86    61.52    15.63P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.41    79.62     7.24    69.19     3.95     5.81     0.00     0.21    36.46     6.58P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.47    39.73    -4.42    67.60     4.00     5.90     0.00     0.04    25.41     6.66P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       3.99    67.31    10.10    61.04     3.92     0.95     0.00     0.00     1.21     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.48    39.41    -0.22    63.16     4.17     3.68     0.00     0.00     5.31     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.85    46.78     6.89    60.42     3.94     4.04     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.08    59.95     2.21    57.94     3.90    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.57    39.41    -9.30    60.14     4.26    -9.72     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.18    51.58    -2.59    57.99     4.10    -9.21     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.09    55.56     1.50    55.49     3.91   -10.48     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.24    49.80     3.07    52.86     4.11   -12.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.65    34.87    -9.15    53.82     3.99   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.66    20.32    -9.59    52.55     3.97   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.69    12.86   -11.59    53.23     4.05   -10.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.34     5.58   -11.26    52.82     4.28    -5.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.03R    0.03  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.41    39.68     2.36    45.28     3.75   -19.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.53R    1.53  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -5.97    24.65    -5.64    41.25     3.81   -29.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.63R   12.63  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.85     1.29   -12.78    34.02     4.15   -28.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.77R   85.77  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.70    82.74    13.29    84.34     4.03    31.97    72.19    99.79    78.75P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.26    74.78     3.44    79.41     4.08    18.57    15.78    94.33    32.47P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.37    28.04    -1.45    77.23     3.76    27.92     6.67    90.40    35.60P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.75    34.30    -2.57    75.52     4.04    21.77     3.65    78.75    25.66P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.43    72.06     9.28    74.35     4.02    18.02     1.26    68.44    13.83P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.66    82.44     2.78    69.15     3.95    -0.58     0.06    15.71     2.39P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.58    83.64     4.77    65.64     3.43    -6.03     0.00     2.28     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.52    35.41     1.46    68.60     3.77    14.84     0.00    14.62     3.35P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.59    52.76     4.79    65.98     3.52     8.05     0.00     2.90     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.87    82.46     4.26    64.35     3.72    -7.55     0.00     1.29     0.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.39    51.66     1.64    70.10     4.55    11.51     0.37    26.78     6.24P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.27    55.60    -0.81    64.80     3.82    -0.21     0.00     1.89     0.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -1.92    42.34     2.68    64.72     3.80     7.64     0.00     2.19     0.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.01    37.58     3.52    62.12     3.79     6.70     0.00     0.38     0.07P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.86    66.37     4.38    59.57     4.28    -8.57     0.00     0.23     0.03P    1.36R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.03    55.30     0.33    54.55     3.45   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.59R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.08    50.86    -4.22    56.84     3.99   -14.24     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.25R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.41    28.18    -2.38    55.37     3.98    -5.36     0.00     0.01     0.00     8.16R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.43    22.13    -8.49    54.54     3.76   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.28R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.90    13.91    -6.38    55.33     3.98    -2.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.72R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.15    26.05   -12.46    49.85     3.40   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.41R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.36    44.81     1.11    49.92     3.69   -17.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.95R    0.04  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.07    11.72   -14.76    52.01     4.10   -15.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.20R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.75    21.84    -4.19    32.46     3.29   -41.04     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.93