Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 30 March 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.10    99.80     3.00   101.46     3.51    56.89   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.58    20.10    -5.01    80.18     3.51    54.12     0.00    98.77    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.62    67.67    15.40    68.24     3.99    34.26     0.00     1.15    77.44    92.71    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.08    39.20    -3.66    63.11     3.84    16.21     0.00     0.06    12.49    53.19    91.12     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.92    30.82     0.53    61.32     3.88    20.03     0.00     0.02     7.90    35.87    84.09     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.08    65.70     7.39    56.39     4.01     8.55     0.00     0.00     0.56     5.08    34.39     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.54    84.38     9.63    55.20     4.15     3.05     0.00     0.00     0.56     3.70    23.13     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.48    13.51    -7.78    56.82     4.05    12.24     0.00     0.00     0.80     6.93    42.13     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.11    25.33    -5.82    54.83     4.11     5.45     0.00     0.00     0.29     2.39    21.66     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.61    77.32     3.90    49.32     3.70    -9.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.19     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.23    62.16    -1.39    48.92     3.74    -9.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.16     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.61    47.25    -4.43    49.30     3.91    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.55     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.55    64.28    -5.20    45.16     3.71   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.01R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.09    66.91    -1.15    43.69     3.81   -21.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.43R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.70    36.66     4.70    37.70     3.63   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.09R    1.79  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.24    20.86    -2.80    38.58     3.92   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.80R    1.94  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.36    28.60    -2.99    36.84     3.73   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.35R    4.12  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.63    27.54    -3.60    35.97     3.67   -24.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.15R    5.19  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.48    43.11     0.69    33.93     3.90   -30.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.58R   16.51  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.08    29.46    -1.41    29.52     3.64   -34.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.54R   70.41  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.77    80.12     7.78    86.89     3.96    31.34    51.59    94.03   100.00    95.86P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.66    65.18     3.31    86.22     4.01    33.03    46.33    91.35    99.99    94.34P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.40    71.31     2.30    76.97     4.05    14.94     1.33     7.84    95.14    29.69P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -5.03    29.30     9.45    75.76     4.01    36.14     0.65     5.69    93.16    37.65P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.01    74.23     5.00    73.44     4.04    11.65     0.10     0.98    79.14    16.92P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.87    62.32     1.44    68.82     4.05     5.68     0.00     0.06    36.01     7.21P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       3.92    66.51    -2.38    67.52     4.06    -1.69     0.00     0.01    22.58     4.05P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.16    72.00     6.17    66.84     4.04     4.80     0.00     0.00    19.65     3.36P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.12    49.84    -2.93    66.84     4.09     2.80     0.00     0.02    19.76     4.27P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.31    51.57     4.18    65.57     4.07     7.33     0.00     0.01    14.24     2.65P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.10    50.74    -2.18    65.81     4.03     1.86     0.00     0.00    13.14     2.64P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.95    33.92    -6.33    62.69     4.03    -0.97     0.00     0.00     3.82     0.83P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.10    67.58     4.29    61.62     4.03    -5.36     0.00     0.00     1.66     0.22P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.14    51.29     7.86    60.09     4.00     3.69     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.17P    0.16R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.67    43.14    -1.49    59.64     3.98    -4.05     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.11P    0.21R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.56    57.38    -0.93    58.14     3.96   -10.98     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    1.26R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.55    24.19    -2.94    53.40     3.93    -7.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   10.17R    0.53  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.44    44.27    -2.08    52.71     3.94   -15.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.83R    1.00  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.87    16.56    -9.55    53.35     3.99    -9.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.40R    0.51  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.40    35.76    -3.17    52.51     3.97   -13.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.98R    1.24  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.63    31.53    -5.36    52.43     3.97   -15.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.25R    1.58  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.72    30.97     0.31    49.41     3.91   -13.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.37R    4.77  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.08    37.85    -6.84    44.94     3.95   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.82R   41.48  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.64    20.36    -5.91    43.88     3.89   -23.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.47R   48.88  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.55    95.84     9.14    82.15     4.24    20.14    56.04    75.41    98.32    79.87P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.80    57.62     3.95    78.04     3.99    28.93    17.62    42.72    89.94    55.67P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.82    66.67    11.38    75.72     3.98    29.19     8.04    22.27    79.28    36.02P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.41    51.83    -0.80    74.44     3.96    20.16     3.57    12.13    65.76    26.96P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.21    75.83     4.35    74.88     3.92    16.99     4.13    13.49    69.14    25.18P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.15    44.36     8.57    75.87     3.82    35.27     8.04    23.49    82.63    40.41P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.76    33.10    -4.18    72.51     3.72    19.76     0.86     4.27    47.39    17.84P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.93    93.49     5.91    72.04     4.22     4.09     1.39     4.73    38.17     9.40P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.13    40.17     3.53    69.54     4.18    20.78     0.33     1.46    23.16     7.15P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.31    35.67     1.16    66.05     3.61    14.78     0.00     0.01     3.65     1.01P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       2.02    59.38     6.17    64.74     3.94    10.07     0.00     0.02     2.32     0.42P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.83    37.76    -4.16    60.54     4.05     0.32     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -4.03    32.47    -0.86    56.79     3.91     0.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.75    54.06    -5.82    55.27     3.80   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.41    39.98     3.38    54.94     4.04    -1.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.56    43.29    -5.86    53.63     4.06   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.51    34.78     1.30    50.34     3.84    -9.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.86R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.72    30.17    -1.79    47.22     3.85   -14.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.98R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.75    47.12    -1.39    48.25     4.14   -20.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.18R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.94    28.26    -1.02    45.40     3.81   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.70R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.54    48.48    -1.13    40.88     3.87   -32.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.03R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.15     4.68   -17.28    27.25     3.59   -53.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.77  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.21    26.08   -14.58    22.23     3.77   -47.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.23  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.20    83.75    10.57    82.78     4.06    26.12    16.44    66.51    99.85    74.69P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.72    85.72     8.29    86.22     4.28    28.25    48.83    87.65    99.99    91.09P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.65    64.77     1.61    83.78     4.09    27.04    23.53    74.37    99.91    82.34P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.79    79.84     0.51    79.14     3.99    12.68     2.97    25.73    98.39    43.46P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.81    80.51    14.94    80.26     4.21    28.65     8.17    43.05    99.36    57.77P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -1.00    45.82     3.04    71.91     4.02    17.35     0.02     1.39    70.48    20.11P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.68    52.88     4.38    70.96     4.02    14.89     0.03     1.00    60.93    15.32P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.26    79.03     7.05    69.23     3.97     5.88     0.01     0.23    36.73     6.64P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.61    39.44    -4.63    67.61     4.02     5.93     0.00     0.06    25.15     6.66P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.31    68.61    10.58    60.98     3.91     0.83     0.00     0.00     1.16     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.46    39.58    -0.18    63.17     4.16     3.69     0.00     0.00     5.47     1.26P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.59    47.91     7.25    60.37     3.94     3.94     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.82    58.65     1.86    57.95     3.92    -7.95     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.81    38.39    -9.66    60.18     4.25    -9.65     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.05    50.95    -2.81    58.00     4.10    -9.18     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.11    55.70     1.57    55.48     3.91   -10.50     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.13    50.36     3.25    52.84     4.08   -12.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.65    34.85    -9.16    53.86     3.99   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.70    20.34    -9.68    52.56     3.98   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.50    13.37   -11.31    53.20     4.06   -10.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.15     5.83   -11.03    52.75     4.29    -5.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.51    39.47     2.28    45.29     3.75   -19.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.53R    1.53  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.03    24.65    -5.82    41.34     3.79   -29.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.94R   11.94  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.86     1.43   -12.89    33.98     4.15   -28.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.49R   86.49  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.64    82.30    13.18    84.37     4.04    32.02    72.19    99.79    78.73P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.21    74.59     3.38    79.41     4.05    18.54    15.54    94.49    32.30P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.29    28.79    -1.31    77.23     3.77    27.94     6.80    90.33    35.32P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.68    34.76    -2.50    75.55     4.03    21.78     3.59    78.94    25.81P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.31    71.77     9.12    74.40     4.03    18.08     1.51    68.51    14.09P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.52    82.24     2.60    69.13     3.92    -0.59     0.05    15.20     2.26P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.40    83.36     4.44    65.68     3.44    -5.97     0.00     2.41     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.59    35.03     1.41    68.65     3.76    14.87     0.02    14.79     3.68P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.59    52.57     4.74    65.97     3.51     8.09     0.00     2.92     0.53P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.82    82.03     4.23    64.34     3.73    -7.55     0.00     1.32     0.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.51    52.39     1.78    70.10     4.55    11.48     0.29    26.51     5.97P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.16    55.23    -0.95    64.85     3.84    -0.14     0.00     1.92     0.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.08    41.54     2.48    64.78     3.80     7.71     0.00     2.26     0.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.97    37.83     3.54    62.09     3.78     6.66     0.00     0.38     0.05P    0.09R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.23    67.76     4.99    59.44     4.27    -8.73     0.00     0.22     0.03P    1.48R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.01    55.19     0.30    54.57     3.46   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.52R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.17    51.45    -4.11    56.79     3.96   -14.31     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.13R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.32    28.51    -2.28    55.36     3.93    -5.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.74R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.30    22.40    -8.25    54.50     3.76   -10.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.54R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.94    13.66    -6.45    55.32     3.99    -2.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.71R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.26    25.80   -12.60    49.84     3.40   -23.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.44R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.18    45.68     1.45    49.88     3.67   -17.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.08R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.07    11.79   -14.79    51.99     4.09   -15.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.26R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.82    21.91    -4.38    32.49     3.32   -41.02     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.94