Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 29 March 2020 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.13    99.78     3.07   101.45     3.52    56.82   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.65    19.62    -5.23    80.24     3.52    54.24     0.00    98.69    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.58    67.50    15.23    68.34     4.01    34.38     0.00     1.23    78.05    93.07    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.25    38.41    -3.89    63.13     3.85    16.27     0.00     0.07    12.34    53.76    91.17     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.77    31.24     0.71    61.26     3.88    19.91     0.00     0.00     7.52    34.97    83.91     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.22    66.26     7.62    56.34     4.00     8.48     0.00     0.00     0.45     4.94    33.97     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.52    83.93     9.65    55.14     4.19     2.99     0.00     0.00     0.58     3.73    23.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.55    13.39    -7.86    56.87     4.03    12.30     0.00     0.00     0.81     6.98    42.70     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.09    25.47    -5.78    54.84     4.13     5.43     0.00     0.00     0.28     2.41    21.69     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.59    77.18     3.87    49.30     3.71    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.18     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.27    62.16    -1.26    48.92     3.78    -9.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.32     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.59    47.50    -4.34    49.27     3.89    -9.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.52     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.61    64.33    -5.14    45.15     3.71   -19.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.97R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.20    67.48    -1.02    43.67     3.81   -21.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.34R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.64    37.05     4.72    37.74     3.65   -13.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.09R    1.76  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.20    21.12    -2.74    38.56     3.92   -16.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.92R    1.98  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.46    28.09    -3.10    36.86     3.74   -21.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.27R    4.29  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.67    27.31    -3.62    35.95     3.69   -24.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.02R    4.97  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.65    42.31     0.39    33.99     3.90   -30.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.90R   16.39  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.05    29.55    -1.30    29.49     3.64   -34.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.44R   70.58  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.63    79.41     7.59    86.93     3.96    31.38    51.56    94.06   100.00    95.93P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.45    64.38     3.00    86.27     3.99    33.14    46.43    91.70   100.00    94.47P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.49    71.84     2.51    76.94     4.06    14.89     1.26     7.60    95.19    29.43P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.86    29.61     9.76    75.72     4.01    36.09     0.68     5.46    93.18    37.57P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.38    75.54     5.54    73.35     4.04    11.51     0.08     1.08    78.35    16.90P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.82    61.95     1.37    68.83     4.05     5.68     0.00     0.05    36.34     7.17P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.02    67.14    -2.23    67.54     4.04    -1.66     0.00     0.01    22.75     4.10P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.28    72.20     6.31    66.82     4.04     4.76     0.00     0.00    19.71     3.35P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.06    49.93    -2.87    66.86     4.07     2.83     0.00     0.01    20.17     4.38P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.36    51.88     4.27    65.54     4.05     7.30     0.00     0.01    14.16     2.67P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.27    51.24    -1.99    65.76     4.00     1.82     0.00     0.00    12.82     2.59P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.91    33.92    -6.22    62.70     4.01    -0.99     0.00     0.00     3.81     0.86P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.03    67.41     4.21    61.61     4.03    -5.38     0.00     0.00     1.66     0.22P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.11    51.06     7.87    60.09     4.01     3.70     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.20P    0.19R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.78    42.66    -1.66    59.70     4.01    -3.97     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.14P    0.22R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.32    56.09    -1.30    58.18     3.95   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.01P    1.19R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.84    23.13    -3.35    53.48     3.92    -7.16     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    9.79R    0.48  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.29    44.87    -1.97    52.67     3.92   -15.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.20R    1.13  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -9.01    15.91    -9.77    53.35     3.99    -9.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.37R    0.56  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.53    35.77    -3.38    52.54     3.99   -13.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.55R    1.32  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.52    31.55    -5.09    52.41     4.01   -15.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.50R    1.56  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.75    31.00     0.23    49.37     3.90   -13.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.92R    4.91  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.90    38.33    -6.59    44.93     3.93   -32.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.01R   41.68  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.85    20.06    -6.23    43.94     3.92   -23.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.98R   48.35  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.61    95.75     9.20    82.12     4.25    20.11    56.17    75.51    98.25    79.96P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.20    59.47     4.61    77.92     3.99    28.74    16.86    41.31    89.30    54.33P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.80    66.30    11.35    75.75     3.95    29.20     8.16    22.41    79.27    36.01P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.70    53.04    -0.35    74.38     3.97    20.06     3.58    11.97    65.12    26.02P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.14    75.94     4.20    74.97     3.93    17.11     4.24    14.10    69.47    26.08P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.30    44.04     8.31    75.91     3.82    35.34     8.32    23.88    82.86    41.30P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.80    33.09    -4.23    72.53     3.70    19.79     0.96     4.47    47.40    17.91P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.96    93.35     5.90    72.10     4.23     4.18     1.42     4.83    38.54     9.65P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.30    39.55     3.30    69.61     4.20    20.89     0.30     1.48    23.76     7.32P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.37    35.76     1.09    66.04     3.61    14.74     0.00     0.01     3.52     0.96P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.98    59.25     6.19    64.72     3.95    10.03     0.01     0.03     2.34     0.43P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.78    37.88    -4.07    60.52     4.02     0.28     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.97    32.75    -0.74    56.72     3.90     0.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.69    53.72    -5.87    55.29     3.78   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.21    40.74     3.64    54.85     4.02    -1.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.70    42.60    -6.05    53.65     4.03   -12.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.44    35.28     1.39    50.32     3.86    -9.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.85R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.63    29.97    -1.72    47.19     3.84   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.08R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.93    46.33    -1.63    48.29     4.13   -20.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.02R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.90    28.50    -0.99    45.40     3.81   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.79R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.58    48.33    -1.27    40.91     3.86   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.05R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.30     4.36   -17.58    27.29     3.62   -53.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.88  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.28    26.21   -14.69    22.24     3.76   -47.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.12  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.39    84.21    10.80    82.81     4.02    26.15    16.55    66.93    99.85    75.24P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.64    85.57     8.18    86.25     4.24    28.30    49.26    88.11    99.99    91.33P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.57    64.64     1.51    83.77     4.08    27.04    23.33    74.50    99.90    82.56P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.85    80.03     0.63    79.13     4.00    12.67     2.91    25.73    98.24    43.22P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       8.02    81.01    15.23    80.17     4.21    28.53     7.90    42.15    99.35    56.93P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.70    47.00     3.43    71.89     4.03    17.32     0.02     1.34    70.20    19.96P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.40    51.54     3.96    71.03     4.02    14.98     0.02     0.95    61.52    15.71P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.14    78.42     6.90    69.27     4.00     5.91     0.00     0.24    37.29     6.86P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.25    40.60    -4.12    67.54     4.00     5.81     0.00     0.05    24.71     6.39P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.10    67.21    10.30    61.07     3.93     0.95     0.00     0.00     1.32     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.47    39.50    -0.23    63.15     4.17     3.66     0.00     0.00     5.13     1.15P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.75    47.17     7.08    60.34     3.93     3.92     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.85    59.09     1.89    57.95     3.88    -7.94     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.57    39.34    -9.32    60.12     4.26    -9.75     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.03    50.65    -2.84    58.00     4.10    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.20    55.94     1.63    55.47     3.90   -10.49     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.45    48.95     2.75    52.93     4.13   -12.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.52    35.53    -9.01    53.78     3.98   -17.87     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.89    19.76    -9.91    52.58     3.95   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.43    13.24   -11.21    53.19     4.04   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.07     5.87   -10.88    52.74     4.29    -5.54     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.45    39.78     2.30    45.30     3.74   -19.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.40R    1.40  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.20    24.29    -6.05    41.30     3.79   -29.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.32R   12.32  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.99     1.34   -13.05    34.01     4.16   -28.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.24R   86.24  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.66    82.19    13.11    84.38     4.04    32.03    72.36    99.76    78.84P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.38    74.86     3.60    79.39     4.05    18.56    15.37    94.42    32.16P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.33    28.52    -1.34    77.28     3.76    27.99     6.79    90.43    35.47P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.72    34.43    -2.51    75.52     4.06    21.75     3.63    78.49    25.35P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.24    71.39     9.07    74.45     4.03    18.13     1.41    68.90    14.29P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.49    82.32     2.51    69.14     3.94    -0.59     0.07    15.31     2.34P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.53    83.57     4.69    65.63     3.45    -6.06     0.00     2.21     0.29P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.66    34.90     1.33    68.65     3.77    14.91     0.01    14.85     3.57P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.61    52.90     4.79    65.93     3.52     8.02     0.00     2.90     0.53P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.94    82.29     4.41    64.34     3.75    -7.61     0.00     1.30     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.39    51.77     1.62    70.12     4.56    11.54     0.37    26.81     6.24P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.22    55.50    -0.90    64.80     3.83    -0.23     0.00     1.87     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -1.97    42.06     2.63    64.78     3.80     7.70     0.00     2.11     0.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.04    37.32     3.42    62.13     3.79     6.71     0.00     0.41     0.09P    0.07R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.98    66.84     4.61    59.47     4.30    -8.69     0.00     0.20     0.03P    1.48R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.10    55.57     0.44    54.53     3.42   -13.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.59R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.14    51.23    -4.15    56.81     3.96   -14.25     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.21R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.26    28.30    -2.21    55.38     3.97    -5.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.15R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.18    22.41    -8.03    54.47     3.73   -10.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.52R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.04    13.61    -6.64    55.33     4.00    -2.88     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.91R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.20    25.95   -12.51    49.83     3.41   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.54R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.46    44.30     0.92    49.95     3.66   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.64R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.07    11.64   -14.74    52.03     4.10   -15.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.87R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.73    22.16    -4.14    32.44     3.32   -41.10     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95