Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 27 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.09    99.81     3.02   101.47     3.51    56.87   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.63    19.83    -5.11    80.16     3.55    54.10     0.00    98.70    99.95   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.55    67.34    15.21    68.32     4.00    34.38     0.00     1.22    77.95    93.05    99.48     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.08    39.31    -3.67    63.10     3.84    16.21     0.00     0.07    12.31    53.26    90.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.85    30.66     0.59    61.30     3.88    20.01     0.00     0.02     7.58    35.41    83.71     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.27    66.93     7.69    56.33     4.00     8.47     0.00     0.00     0.55     5.01    33.57     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.49    83.86     9.58    55.21     4.17     3.05     0.00     0.00     0.57     3.84    23.42     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.54    13.35    -7.81    56.83     4.03    12.24     0.00     0.00     0.80     6.86    42.51     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.18    25.35    -5.97    54.88     4.13     5.49     0.00     0.00     0.30     2.47    22.32     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.58    77.11     3.89    49.31     3.71    -9.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.13     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.31    62.44    -1.22    48.92     3.76    -9.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.22     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.64    47.16    -4.45    49.29     3.89    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.58     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.52    64.02    -5.24    45.17     3.72   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.05R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.02    66.41    -1.30    43.75     3.83   -21.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.30R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.71    36.47     4.67    37.68     3.63   -13.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.33R    1.77  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.11    21.36    -2.51    38.54     3.93   -16.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.22R    1.98  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.46    27.90    -3.09    36.84     3.74   -21.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.89R    4.07  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.60    27.57    -3.51    35.93     3.68   -24.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.62R    5.26  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.40    43.67     0.80    33.94     3.88   -30.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.03R   16.91  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.15    29.30    -1.55    29.53     3.65   -34.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.50R   69.98  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.92    80.56     8.00    86.83     3.94    31.22    51.02    94.00   100.00    95.89P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.62    64.79     3.26    86.23     4.00    33.06    46.85    91.60   100.00    94.50P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.31    71.03     2.20    77.02     4.04    15.00     1.43     7.80    95.33    29.86P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.93    29.39     9.63    75.73     3.98    36.10     0.61     5.47    93.37    37.06P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.15    75.03     5.19    73.42     4.02    11.59     0.09     1.04    78.93    16.90P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.88    62.42     1.44    68.82     4.06     5.67     0.00     0.05    36.07     7.26P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.11    67.21    -2.03    67.46     4.07    -1.78     0.00     0.01    22.30     4.02P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.21    72.06     6.26    66.83     4.04     4.79     0.00     0.01    19.41     3.38P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.01    49.98    -2.84    66.85     4.07     2.81     0.00     0.01    19.96     4.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.36    51.58     4.25    65.55     4.07     7.32     0.00     0.01    14.28     2.75P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.04    50.58    -2.28    65.85     4.01     1.93     0.00     0.00    13.12     2.75P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.02    33.43    -6.34    62.76     4.00    -0.87     0.00     0.00     3.89     0.82P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.01    66.88     4.20    61.61     4.03    -5.35     0.00     0.00     1.61     0.24P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.07    50.84     7.75    60.07     4.01     3.68     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.19P    0.20R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.67    43.20    -1.53    59.63     3.99    -4.03     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.11P    0.21R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.23    55.95    -1.41    58.18     3.96   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    1.19R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.80    23.25    -3.26    53.46     3.96    -7.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.27R    0.56  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.23    45.44    -1.84    52.64     3.95   -15.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   17.29R    1.04  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.97    16.13    -9.69    53.32     3.98    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.41R    0.55  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.41    35.78    -3.18    52.52     4.01   -13.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.90R    1.29  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.54    31.84    -5.17    52.46     4.00   -15.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   19.99R    1.51  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.60    31.30     0.45    49.35     3.91   -13.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.87R    4.90  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.15    37.34    -7.03    44.99     3.94   -32.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.54R   41.06  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.70    20.20    -6.02    43.90     3.90   -23.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.06R   49.08  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.50    95.65     9.11    82.13     4.24    20.11    56.08    75.59    98.22    80.11P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.93    58.22     4.22    78.00     3.99    28.87    17.25    42.25    89.80    55.47P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.80    66.45    11.31    75.71     3.98    29.19     8.19    22.19    79.16    35.76P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.72    52.94    -0.31    74.36     3.98    20.04     3.59    11.68    65.40    26.17P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.26    76.19     4.37    74.88     3.93    17.01     4.19    13.62    69.06    25.46P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.20    44.47     8.44    75.91     3.84    35.31     8.11    23.92    82.97    41.04P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.64    33.88    -4.00    72.49     3.73    19.73     0.94     4.45    47.19    17.77P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.91    93.47     5.87    72.02     4.23     4.05     1.37     4.79    38.15     9.48P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.14    40.21     3.52    69.60     4.17    20.87     0.28     1.49    23.78     7.34P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.46    35.27     0.95    66.09     3.59    14.85     0.00     0.01     3.73     0.92P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.97    59.05     6.17    64.75     3.93    10.09     0.00     0.02     2.31     0.43P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.94    36.98    -4.39    60.60     4.04     0.40     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.98    32.50    -0.75    56.73     3.92     0.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.72    53.93    -5.86    55.27     3.81   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.43    39.88     3.35    54.96     4.03    -1.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.85    42.01    -6.24    53.68     4.05   -12.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.54    34.93     1.21    50.39     3.86    -9.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.80R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.62    30.09    -1.76    47.18     3.84   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.15R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.84    46.77    -1.54    48.27     4.15   -20.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.05R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.83    28.65    -0.83    45.36     3.80   -15.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.74R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.50    48.80    -1.00    40.88     3.86   -32.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.05R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.17     4.65   -17.32    27.26     3.62   -53.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.58  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.15    26.40   -14.53    22.18     3.75   -47.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.42  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.27    83.89    10.69    82.82     4.05    26.14    16.93    66.79    99.85    74.87P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.85    86.10     8.54    86.17     4.28    28.18    48.45    87.69    99.99    90.91P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.63    64.71     1.58    83.76     4.05    27.04    23.27    74.63    99.93    82.72P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.82    80.13     0.59    79.11     4.00    12.64     2.85    25.73    98.35    43.56P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.81    80.62    15.03    80.22     4.22    28.60     8.43    42.52    99.37    57.20P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.93    46.12     3.12    71.89     4.03    17.34     0.04     1.42    70.46    20.24P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.62    52.72     4.24    70.96     4.00    14.90     0.02     0.94    61.29    15.44P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.44    79.47     7.34    69.18     3.99     5.79     0.00     0.22    36.44     6.65P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.26    40.81    -4.07    67.53     4.00     5.82     0.00     0.06    24.91     6.44P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.06    67.34    10.21    61.03     3.93     0.90     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.66    38.71    -0.45    63.21     4.16     3.76     0.00     0.00     5.48     1.26P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.67    47.61     7.13    60.40     3.95     4.01     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.99    59.49     2.03    57.90     3.89    -8.04     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.62    39.22    -9.40    60.17     4.27    -9.69     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.21    49.63    -3.10    58.06     4.10    -9.08     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.22    55.93     1.70    55.47     3.89   -10.50     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.33    49.33     2.97    52.87     4.10   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.72    34.45    -9.31    53.83     3.97   -17.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.87    19.77    -9.93    52.61     4.00   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.51    13.20   -11.32    53.21     4.05   -10.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.24     5.62   -11.18    52.79     4.34    -5.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.37    40.04     2.42    45.31     3.75   -19.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.44R    1.44  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.07    24.54    -5.84    41.30     3.79   -29.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.14R   12.14  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.88     1.29   -12.99    33.98     4.14   -28.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.38R   86.38  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.58    82.19    13.05    84.38     4.03    32.03    72.29    99.79    78.79P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.11    74.31     3.19    79.46     4.05    18.63    15.63    94.73    32.41P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.39    28.39    -1.46    77.27     3.77    27.99     6.82    90.60    35.66P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.56    35.12    -2.33    75.49     4.06    21.70     3.46    78.66    25.63P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.37    71.73     9.22    74.37     4.01    18.04     1.36    68.44    13.81P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.41    82.22     2.44    69.17     3.93    -0.53     0.07    15.51     2.36P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.79    84.32     5.08    65.58     3.44    -6.13     0.00     2.29     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.50    35.52     1.47    68.61     3.76    14.84     0.00    14.64     3.44P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.74    53.44     5.00    65.94     3.50     8.02     0.00     2.78     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.94    82.59     4.43    64.34     3.71    -7.58     0.00     1.36     0.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.43    51.91     1.72    70.06     4.54    11.44     0.36    26.45     6.08P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.16    55.25    -0.99    64.83     3.81    -0.17     0.00     1.88     0.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.08    41.73     2.48    64.78     3.81     7.71     0.00     2.22     0.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.98    37.85     3.49    62.10     3.78     6.68     0.00     0.39     0.10P    0.06R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.94    66.82     4.49    59.49     4.29    -8.64     0.00     0.24     0.04P    1.50R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.08    55.68     0.38    54.53     3.43   -13.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.84R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.25    51.76    -3.99    56.84     3.97   -14.22     0.00     0.01     0.01P    5.23R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.30    28.55    -2.24    55.38     3.96    -5.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.36    22.24    -8.39    54.55     3.77   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.57R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.96    13.84    -6.47    55.31     4.00    -2.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.06R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.54    24.75   -13.04    49.89     3.40   -23.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.79R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.45    44.48     1.06    49.93     3.69   -17.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.61R    0.02  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.82    12.20   -14.39    51.96     4.07   -15.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.31R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.77    21.87    -4.18    32.48     3.30   -41.02     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95