Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 26 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.10    99.79     2.97   101.49     3.50    56.93   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.62    19.83    -5.15    80.18     3.51    54.11     0.00    98.81    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.48    66.96    15.09    68.33     4.01    34.35     0.00     1.12    77.66    92.93    99.47     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.25    38.45    -3.89    63.17     3.84    16.32     0.00     0.07    12.57    54.00    91.06     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.76    30.95     0.79    61.27     3.90    19.96     0.00     0.01     7.72    34.96    83.48     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.32    66.84     7.80    56.31     4.01     8.43     0.00     0.00     0.48     5.12    33.50     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.46    83.89     9.50    55.21     4.17     3.10     0.00     0.00     0.52     3.65    23.42     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.52    13.40    -7.83    56.84     4.01    12.25     0.00     0.00     0.80     6.75    42.69     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.16    25.55    -5.91    54.88     4.15     5.48     0.00     0.00     0.30     2.46    22.37     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.51    76.73     3.78    49.35     3.71    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.21     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.31    62.19    -1.18    48.89     3.77    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.28     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.55    47.47    -4.34    49.25     3.90    -9.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.44     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.64    64.32    -5.05    45.12     3.69   -19.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.09R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.06    66.58    -1.20    43.72     3.80   -21.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.33R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.76    36.29     4.60    37.73     3.62   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.99R    1.76  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.17    21.21    -2.67    38.61     3.92   -16.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.63R    1.94  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.47    28.00    -3.14    36.84     3.72   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.18R    4.06  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.66    27.22    -3.59    35.96     3.68   -24.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.78R    5.04  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.44    43.54     0.73    33.94     3.91   -30.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.16R   16.46  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.98    29.88    -1.28    29.45     3.63   -34.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.80R   70.71  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.89    80.26     7.94    86.85     3.97    31.25    51.66    93.84   100.00    95.79P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.81    65.87     3.51    86.21     3.98    33.03    46.26    91.59   100.00    94.43P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.30    71.17     2.15    77.03     4.03    15.00     1.29     7.99    95.49    30.01P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.78    29.91     9.91    75.74     3.99    36.11     0.73     5.49    93.40    37.67P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.11    74.49     5.10    73.41     4.04    11.58     0.06     0.98    78.67    16.66P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       3.09    63.29     1.71    68.77     4.07     5.59     0.00     0.05    35.20     6.85P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.03    66.80    -2.21    67.50     4.07    -1.75     0.00     0.02    22.48     4.04P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       4.93    70.84     5.86    66.89     4.05     4.86     0.00     0.02    20.02     3.61P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.08    49.83    -2.96    66.86     4.06     2.83     0.00     0.01    19.82     4.13P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.27    51.41     4.11    65.55     4.06     7.33     0.00     0.00    14.22     2.76P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.13    50.65    -2.15    65.85     4.03     1.90     0.00     0.00    13.54     2.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.05    33.44    -6.41    62.74     4.01    -0.90     0.00     0.00     3.80     0.85P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.03    67.24     4.19    61.61     4.03    -5.35     0.00     0.00     1.63     0.22P    0.08R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.16    51.45     7.92    60.09     4.01     3.71     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.16P    0.18R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.87    42.22    -1.74    59.68     3.99    -3.97     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.14P    0.20R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.46    57.21    -1.05    58.12     3.96   -11.02     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    1.20R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.73    23.47    -3.18    53.48     3.95    -7.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.19R    0.54  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.33    44.94    -1.96    52.69     3.94   -15.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.01R    1.07  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.88    16.45    -9.52    53.27     3.99    -9.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.72R    0.52  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.19    36.65    -2.96    52.43     3.97   -13.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.53R    1.35  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.64    31.37    -5.37    52.48     3.99   -15.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.92R    1.58  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.60    31.52     0.49    49.38     3.91   -13.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.53R    4.94  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.24    36.77    -7.13    44.97     3.98   -32.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.50R   41.56  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.83    19.65    -6.26    43.95     3.91   -23.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.93R   48.44  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.71    95.97     9.37    82.11     4.25    20.11    56.18    75.24    98.18    79.78P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.12    58.93     4.47    77.95     3.95    28.79    16.98    41.77    89.97    55.01P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.71    66.07    11.18    75.76     3.95    29.21     8.08    22.37    79.32    36.07P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.67    52.81    -0.35    74.33     3.96    20.00     3.46    11.73    64.72    25.92P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.00    75.20     4.00    74.99     3.91    17.17     4.23    14.30    69.98    26.45P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.28    43.95     8.33    75.92     3.82    35.35     8.39    24.00    83.02    41.16P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.59    33.72    -3.92    72.45     3.73    19.65     0.93     4.35    46.63    17.34P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.06    93.66     6.10    72.00     4.24     4.03     1.46     4.64    37.84     9.32P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.29    39.61     3.27    69.68     4.18    20.97     0.29     1.57    24.32     7.52P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.27    36.13     1.22    66.04     3.62    14.76     0.00     0.01     3.56     0.94P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       2.00    59.61     6.18    64.73     3.96    10.05     0.00     0.02     2.30     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.98    36.79    -4.38    60.59     4.01     0.39     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.97    32.92    -0.72    56.77     3.92     0.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.51    52.87    -6.13    55.30     3.80   -14.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.33    39.99     3.48    54.88     4.00    -1.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.69    42.72    -6.07    53.63     4.04   -12.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.55    34.72     1.21    50.36     3.86    -9.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.78R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.66    30.20    -1.78    47.15     3.85   -14.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.15R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.74    47.52    -1.31    48.23     4.13   -20.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.11R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.88    28.89    -0.90    45.41     3.82   -15.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.82R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.53    48.85    -1.09    40.90     3.87   -32.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.92R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.29     4.43   -17.62    27.31     3.63   -53.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.37  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.16    26.39   -14.54    22.18     3.73   -47.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.63  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.00    83.31    10.20    82.85     4.05    26.21    16.80    66.92    99.86    75.25P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.75    85.79     8.32    86.27     4.29    28.28    49.11    87.76   100.00    91.14P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.69    65.03     1.66    83.78     4.08    27.07    23.20    74.59    99.91    82.66P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.71    79.75     0.45    79.16     4.01    12.69     2.87    25.88    98.43    43.70P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       8.05    81.23    15.34    80.17     4.23    28.53     7.96    42.26    99.32    56.66P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.82    46.35     3.25    71.89     4.02    17.32     0.03     1.37    70.53    19.87P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.53    52.36     4.11    70.98     4.01    14.92     0.03     0.96    61.52    15.72P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.53    79.79     7.42    69.13     3.98     5.73     0.00     0.20    36.11     6.62P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.49    39.62    -4.39    67.57     4.00     5.85     0.00     0.05    25.26     6.45P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.15    67.88    10.32    61.04     3.93     0.91     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.48    39.73    -0.25    63.20     4.16     3.71     0.00     0.00     5.34     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.76    47.38     7.02    60.41     3.94     4.03     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.98    59.44     2.07    57.91     3.88    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.56    39.46    -9.30    60.10     4.26    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.07    50.27    -2.97    58.07     4.08    -9.07     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.27    56.40     1.79    55.44     3.87   -10.54     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.43    48.79     2.89    52.87     4.11   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.70    34.92    -9.27    53.85     3.98   -17.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -8.00    19.17   -10.13    52.66     3.99   -14.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.41    13.48   -11.24    53.17     4.03   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.20     5.73   -11.14    52.76     4.30    -5.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.41    39.96     2.41    45.31     3.74   -19.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.42R    1.42  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -5.99    24.79    -5.64    41.24     3.79   -29.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.25R   12.25  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.89     1.37   -12.91    33.96     4.12   -28.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.28R   86.28  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.90    83.06    13.51    84.33     4.03    31.97    72.02    99.78    78.46P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.38    75.10     3.65    79.35     4.07    18.49    15.28    94.14    31.94P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.54    27.66    -1.67    77.32     3.77    28.06     7.23    90.77    36.28P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.89    33.82    -2.79    75.58     4.04    21.83     3.65    79.37    25.84P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.39    71.92     9.26    74.37     4.03    18.06     1.39    68.22    13.98P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.45    82.11     2.47    69.20     3.93    -0.50     0.05    15.72     2.36P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.55    83.25     4.73    65.65     3.44    -6.02     0.00     2.28     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.52    35.35     1.48    68.62     3.77    14.85     0.02    14.57     3.42P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.49    52.64     4.63    65.98     3.52     8.06     0.00     2.94     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.97    82.59     4.48    64.35     3.70    -7.56     0.00     1.17     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.54    52.27     1.86    70.08     4.52    11.48     0.37    26.26     6.05P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.27    55.79    -0.81    64.81     3.81    -0.20     0.00     1.85     0.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.37    40.57     1.98    64.83     3.81     7.80     0.00     2.27     0.36P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.00    37.75     3.46    62.14     3.78     6.72     0.00     0.43     0.08P    0.05R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.00    66.86     4.60    59.48     4.27    -8.67     0.00     0.21     0.03P    1.40R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       0.84    54.43     0.03    54.56     3.43   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.42R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.31    52.00    -3.84    56.79     3.97   -14.31     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.22R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.23    28.72    -2.13    55.36     3.96    -5.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.82R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.30    22.15    -8.27    54.51     3.77   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.51R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.92    13.65    -6.44    55.31     3.99    -2.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.88R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.17    26.24   -12.47    49.80     3.39   -23.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.65R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.33    45.01     1.21    49.89     3.66   -17.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.01R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.12    11.52   -14.83    52.00     4.07   -15.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.03R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.71    22.14    -4.11    32.44     3.30   -41.09     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95