Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 25 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.18    99.80     3.20   101.39     3.52    56.77   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.64    19.75    -5.16    80.22     3.52    54.17     0.00    98.73    99.98   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.58    67.60    15.26    68.30     4.01    34.33     0.00     1.19    77.82    93.02    99.47     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.14    38.92    -3.75    63.08     3.84    16.18     0.00     0.07    12.60    53.38    91.05     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.69    31.73     0.84    61.24     3.88    19.89     0.00     0.01     7.45    35.20    83.28     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.00    65.14     7.33    56.41     4.03     8.59     0.00     0.00     0.51     5.27    34.64     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.46    84.02     9.55    55.19     4.12     3.05     0.00     0.00     0.51     3.60    22.80     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.66    12.94    -8.03    56.89     4.04    12.36     0.00     0.00     0.83     7.15    42.82     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.07    25.76    -5.79    54.84     4.13     5.43     0.00     0.00     0.30     2.28    21.84     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.50    76.86     3.71    49.36     3.71    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.14     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.28    62.34    -1.26    48.90     3.79    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.25     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.59    47.47    -4.38    49.31     3.91    -9.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.61     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.57    64.04    -5.11    45.16     3.71   -19.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.98R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.10    67.03    -1.14    43.69     3.81   -21.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.47R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.67    36.73     4.65    37.76     3.63   -13.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.81R    1.69  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.34    20.49    -2.94    38.60     3.94   -16.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.60R    1.86  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.39    28.51    -3.03    36.82     3.72   -21.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.96R    4.13  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.57    27.55    -3.45    35.93     3.68   -24.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.27R    4.91  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.41    43.71     0.78    33.93     3.90   -30.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.21R   16.62  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.97    29.91    -1.28    29.47     3.62   -34.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.66R   70.73  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.94    80.59     8.08    86.84     3.95    31.25    51.60    93.88   100.00    95.89P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.75    65.42     3.47    86.19     3.98    33.00    46.29    91.39   100.00    94.33P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.41    71.51     2.38    77.01     4.06    14.98     1.40     8.06    95.26    30.31P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.97    29.18     9.57    75.77     4.01    36.14     0.62     5.57    93.34    37.37P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.17    74.87     5.22    73.39     4.05    11.55     0.09     1.00    78.54    16.71P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.88    62.59     1.44    68.83     4.06     5.69     0.00     0.05    35.82     7.07P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.00    66.96    -2.19    67.49     4.07    -1.73     0.00     0.02    22.59     3.90P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.05    71.19     5.97    66.87     4.07     4.84     0.00     0.01    20.16     3.54P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.23    49.33    -3.10    66.87     4.09     2.86     0.00     0.01    20.07     4.32P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.47    52.67     4.44    65.53     4.04     7.29     0.00     0.01    14.10     2.55P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.18    51.14    -2.04    65.82     4.00     1.87     0.00     0.00    13.04     2.62P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.02    33.65    -6.44    62.71     4.02    -0.96     0.00     0.00     3.88     0.83P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.28    68.26     4.61    61.53     4.02    -5.45     0.00     0.00     1.48     0.21P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.19    51.40     7.93    60.07     4.01     3.68     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.17P    0.19R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.58    43.66    -1.37    59.66     4.00    -4.03     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.16P    0.25R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.21    55.88    -1.47    58.19     3.99   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P    1.19R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.65    23.70    -3.05    53.46     3.94    -7.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.98R    0.54  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.49    44.38    -2.26    52.73     3.95   -15.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   16.99R    1.11  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.73    16.68    -9.35    53.28     3.98    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.85R    0.55  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.29    36.06    -3.10    52.52     3.97   -13.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.53R    1.37  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.86    30.77    -5.66    52.44     4.00   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.35R    1.60  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.76    30.73     0.18    49.41     3.89   -13.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.74R    4.78  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.14    37.42    -6.99    44.95     3.95   -32.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.81R   41.91  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.85    19.68    -6.27    43.95     3.88   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.06R   48.13  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.78    95.94     9.43    82.03     4.23    20.02    55.25    74.87    98.13    79.41P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.05    58.86     4.35    77.96     3.98    28.81    17.33    42.11    89.49    55.06P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.80    66.48    11.29    75.72     3.96    29.18     8.08    22.19    79.02    35.64P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.53    52.00    -0.63    74.40     3.95    20.11     3.55    12.00    65.50    26.55P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.24    76.06     4.39    74.90     3.92    17.04     4.31    13.75    68.91    25.25P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.34    43.77     8.24    75.97     3.84    35.38     8.69    24.22    83.03    41.69P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.69    33.83    -4.02    72.49     3.72    19.71     0.90     4.29    47.18    17.44P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.02    93.61     6.01    72.05     4.26     4.09     1.52     4.93    38.50     9.65P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.30    39.42     3.24    69.64     4.21    20.91     0.37     1.60    24.19     7.80P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.48    35.39     0.94    66.09     3.61    14.82     0.00     0.01     3.64     0.97P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       2.12    59.82     6.29    64.72     3.94    10.02     0.00     0.02     2.25     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.66    38.31    -3.92    60.52     4.03     0.27     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -4.01    32.73    -0.78    56.72     3.92     0.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.78    54.26    -5.71    55.24     3.79   -14.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.47    39.82     3.27    54.98     4.05    -1.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.83    41.99    -6.24    53.68     4.04   -12.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.54    34.52     1.27    50.41     3.85    -9.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.76R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.56    30.65    -1.60    47.20     3.82   -14.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.14R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.92    46.33    -1.61    48.26     4.14   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.12R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.93    28.26    -0.99    45.41     3.81   -15.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.87R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.62    48.36    -1.23    40.91     3.88   -32.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.91R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.26     4.45   -17.47    27.26     3.61   -53.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.42  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.14    26.53   -14.51    22.18     3.73   -47.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.58  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.20    83.67    10.52    82.80     4.05    26.16    16.79    66.55    99.85    75.22P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.85    86.01     8.51    86.24     4.26    28.24    49.14    87.94    99.99    91.14P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.77    65.24     1.77    83.71     4.07    26.95    22.92    74.13    99.92    82.09P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.68    79.69     0.36    79.16     3.99    12.70     2.96    26.16    98.31    43.97P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.80    80.66    14.97    80.19     4.22    28.58     8.13    42.60    99.41    57.22P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.85    46.24     3.23    71.90     4.03    17.32     0.04     1.38    70.47    20.01P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.28    51.20     3.77    71.02     4.02    14.99     0.01     0.97    61.68    15.51P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.43    79.58     7.35    69.15     3.97     5.78     0.00     0.20    35.87     6.48P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.36    40.08    -4.27    67.55     4.02     5.82     0.00     0.06    25.10     6.42P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.24    68.48    10.50    61.02     3.94     0.88     0.00     0.00     1.33     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.62    38.99    -0.40    63.22     4.20     3.75     0.00     0.01     5.59     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.54    48.02     7.32    60.36     3.93     3.92     0.00     0.00     1.03     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.92    59.13     1.98    57.95     3.90    -7.98     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.70    38.76    -9.50    60.19     4.28    -9.64     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.05    50.54    -2.93    58.08     4.10    -9.08     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.04    55.24     1.39    55.53     3.90   -10.43     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.21    49.82     3.20    52.87     4.09   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.42    35.85    -8.90    53.80     3.97   -17.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.78    20.20    -9.77    52.56     3.95   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.71    12.86   -11.62    53.26     4.05   -10.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.25     5.71   -11.17    52.74     4.30    -5.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.03R    0.03  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.46    39.47     2.31    45.31     3.76   -19.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.50R    1.50  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.03    24.73    -5.77    41.25     3.79   -29.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.24R   12.24  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.83     1.34   -12.84    33.98     4.13   -28.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.20R   86.20  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.71    82.25    13.26    84.34     4.05    31.96    72.02    99.75    78.62P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.27    74.64     3.45    79.40     4.07    18.55    15.64    94.27    32.35P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.19    29.23    -1.16    77.19     3.78    27.87     6.76    90.17    34.94P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.73    34.35    -2.52    75.55     4.06    21.79     3.73    78.81    25.95P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.27    71.73     9.17    74.36     4.03    18.04     1.41    68.18    14.13P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.27    81.77     2.24    69.21     3.94    -0.49     0.07    15.70     2.52P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.42    83.59     4.55    65.66     3.43    -5.98     0.00     2.45     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.67    34.73     1.29    68.63     3.78    14.87     0.01    14.86     3.57P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.70    53.07     4.88    65.92     3.50     7.96     0.00     2.87     0.53P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       9.01    82.86     4.60    64.31     3.73    -7.62     0.00     1.25     0.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.61    52.69     1.95    70.12     4.54    11.51     0.36    26.84     6.07P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.06    54.77    -1.13    64.86     3.82    -0.13     0.00     1.97     0.35P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.06    41.50     2.44    64.81     3.81     7.76     0.00     2.26     0.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.95    38.02     3.53    62.13     3.80     6.69     0.00     0.38     0.06P    0.09R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.80    66.01     4.32    59.53     4.28    -8.59     0.00     0.22     0.02P    1.44R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.05    55.25     0.33    54.55     3.43   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.67R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.26    51.80    -3.94    56.77     3.97   -14.34     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.22R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.26    28.35    -2.22    55.37     3.93    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.05R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.25    22.59    -8.19    54.46     3.76   -10.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.94R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.93    13.90    -6.45    55.29     4.00    -2.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.85R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.20    26.03   -12.51    49.85     3.40   -23.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.11R    0.03  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.58    44.08     0.80    49.96     3.65   -17.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.35R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.90    11.86   -14.53    52.00     4.09   -15.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.27R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.70    22.42    -4.17    32.45     3.30   -41.04     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.93