Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 23 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.04    99.79     2.84   101.48     3.51    56.91   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.58    20.03    -5.08    80.22     3.52    54.16     0.00    98.72    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.45    66.77    15.06    68.32     4.00    34.36     0.00     1.22    77.77    93.02    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.12    38.78    -3.71    63.11     3.84    16.24     0.00     0.05    12.31    53.30    91.21     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.95    30.33     0.47    61.33     3.89    20.07     0.00     0.01     7.82    35.79    83.97     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.12    65.98     7.48    56.35     4.00     8.51     0.00     0.00     0.50     5.07    33.93     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.48    83.83     9.49    55.17     4.13     3.02     0.00     0.00     0.49     3.55    22.95     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.52    13.40    -7.82    56.83     4.04    12.26     0.00     0.00     0.85     6.73    42.60     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.06    25.37    -5.83    54.83     4.13     5.41     0.00     0.00     0.28     2.40    21.92     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.52    76.79     3.74    49.37     3.69    -9.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.16     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.33    62.68    -1.22    48.90     3.76    -9.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.17     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.62    47.33    -4.35    49.26     3.88    -9.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     1.50     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.48    63.78    -5.25    45.20     3.73   -19.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.98R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.13    67.18    -1.08    43.68     3.81   -21.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.36R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.72    36.45     4.64    37.72     3.63   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.85R    1.65  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.04    21.61    -2.46    38.52     3.91   -16.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.15R    2.05  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.37    28.40    -2.90    36.85     3.76   -21.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.02R    4.07  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.63    27.50    -3.51    35.93     3.67   -24.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.49R    5.07  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.41    43.54     0.81    33.93     3.88   -30.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.55R   16.50  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.97    29.90    -1.31    29.48     3.63   -34.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.57R   70.62  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.60    79.39     7.52    86.90     3.95    31.35    51.57    93.84   100.00    95.70P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.76    65.31     3.43    86.23     3.98    33.07    46.24    91.51   100.00    94.41P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.14    70.47     1.93    77.02     4.05    15.00     1.43     7.91    95.43    30.31P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.89    29.82     9.76    75.72     4.01    36.06     0.67     5.58    93.09    37.22P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.20    75.08     5.24    73.39     4.05    11.58     0.09     1.05    78.61    16.87P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       3.01    63.01     1.62    68.79     4.06     5.62     0.00     0.06    35.66     6.81P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       3.93    66.63    -2.33    67.52     4.05    -1.71     0.00     0.01    22.59     4.01P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.16    71.92     6.20    66.83     4.07     4.80     0.00     0.01    19.59     3.44P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.27    49.14    -3.14    66.87     4.06     2.84     0.00     0.01    19.84     4.11P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.29    51.55     4.15    65.57     4.08     7.33     0.00     0.01    14.34     2.95P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.03    50.48    -2.31    65.86     4.03     1.93     0.00     0.00    13.61     2.77P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.96    33.81    -6.30    62.69     4.00    -0.97     0.00     0.00     3.78     0.84P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.21    67.88     4.50    61.55     4.01    -5.44     0.00     0.00     1.63     0.24P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.06    50.66     7.79    60.10     4.00     3.73     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.16P    0.16R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.72    43.13    -1.59    59.69     4.01    -3.96     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.12P    0.22R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.41    56.70    -1.14    58.15     3.95   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    1.24R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.79    23.16    -3.22    53.46     3.95    -7.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.14R    0.54  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.28    45.07    -1.88    52.69     3.94   -15.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.92R    1.04  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.78    16.48    -9.42    53.29     4.00    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.78R    0.55  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.29    36.25    -3.05    52.49     3.99   -13.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.91R    1.22  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.63    31.62    -5.34    52.44     3.98   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.06R    1.54  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.67    31.24     0.33    49.39     3.90   -13.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.59R    4.78  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.93    38.20    -6.68    44.92     3.94   -32.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.99R   41.89  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.78    20.00    -6.09    43.93     3.90   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.93R   48.43  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.64    95.76     9.26    82.10     4.21    20.09    55.92    75.17    98.32    79.65P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.02    58.72     4.34    77.95     3.98    28.80    17.31    41.84    89.27    54.55P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.75    66.24    11.24    75.74     3.96    29.20     7.92    22.57    79.28    36.14P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.41    51.77    -0.88    74.43     3.97    20.15     3.67    12.19    65.81    26.78P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.06    75.57     4.12    74.91     3.92    17.04     4.19    13.57    69.34    25.53P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.16    44.75     8.52    75.92     3.83    35.31     8.29    23.87    82.93    41.39P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.63    33.97    -4.00    72.50     3.70    19.75     0.92     4.34    46.96    17.56P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.05    93.60     6.07    72.05     4.24     4.08     1.47     4.79    38.08     9.42P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.34    39.39     3.20    69.64     4.19    20.94     0.30     1.61    23.95     7.52P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.31    35.59     1.22    66.03     3.64    14.76     0.00     0.01     3.58     0.92P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.81    58.69     5.94    64.76     3.96    10.09     0.01     0.03     2.31     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.90    37.21    -4.26    60.56     4.02     0.34     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.95    32.88    -0.66    56.74     3.93     0.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.75    54.01    -5.83    55.28     3.80   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.43    40.04     3.34    54.91     4.01    -1.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.75    42.37    -6.07    53.68     4.03   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.46    34.76     1.43    50.35     3.86    -9.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.78R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.54    30.57    -1.58    47.17     3.84   -14.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.30R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.80    47.08    -1.45    48.29     4.13   -20.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.93R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.72    29.34    -0.67    45.36     3.80   -15.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.85R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.51    48.81    -0.96    40.89     3.85   -32.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.92R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.20     4.46   -17.44    27.28     3.61   -53.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.74  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.34    25.80   -14.87    22.22     3.75   -47.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.26  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.37    84.21    10.81    82.79     4.03    26.09    16.58    66.57    99.82    74.98P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.84    85.98     8.46    86.20     4.26    28.20    48.73    87.76    99.98    91.15P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.55    64.50     1.36    83.77     4.08    27.06    23.51    74.61    99.90    82.73P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       8.12    81.02     1.00    79.08     4.00    12.58     2.93    25.41    98.31    43.35P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.79    80.61    14.92    80.23     4.21    28.62     8.18    43.07    99.34    57.75P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.84    46.52     3.28    71.87     4.02    17.28     0.03     1.35    70.15    19.69P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.34    51.47     3.82    70.99     4.01    14.95     0.03     0.94    61.22    15.32P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.31    78.92     7.09    69.23     3.99     5.86     0.01     0.24    37.01     6.73P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.33    40.43    -4.22    67.54     3.99     5.82     0.00     0.04    24.80     6.35P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.04    67.22    10.22    61.08     3.93     0.97     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.70    38.67    -0.56    63.23     4.18     3.79     0.00     0.00     5.69     1.33P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.64    47.74     7.12    60.35     3.93     3.93     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.92    59.04     1.98    57.93     3.90    -7.97     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.70    38.75    -9.50    60.22     4.27    -9.60     0.00     0.00     1.03     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.11    50.21    -3.03    58.05     4.09    -9.11     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.22    56.28     1.72    55.45     3.90   -10.54     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.23    49.77     3.14    52.86     4.08   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.60    35.02    -9.10    53.82     3.98   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.92    19.70    -9.98    52.59     3.97   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.45    13.33   -11.21    53.20     4.06   -10.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.18     5.71   -11.03    52.74     4.29    -5.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.45    39.40     2.37    45.31     3.72   -19.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.39R    1.39  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.01    24.89    -5.73    41.26     3.80   -29.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.37R   12.37  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.89     1.35   -12.92    33.99     4.16   -28.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.20R   86.20  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.52    82.11    12.95    84.38     4.04    32.05    72.16    99.77    78.83P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.35    75.13     3.54    79.39     4.07    18.54    15.46    94.56    32.28P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.48    27.85    -1.64    77.25     3.76    27.96     7.05    90.53    36.13P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.72    34.31    -2.57    75.53     4.06    21.77     3.53    78.86    25.26P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.44    71.92     9.36    74.36     4.03    18.04     1.36    68.25    14.20P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.44    82.03     2.49    69.19     3.95    -0.52     0.08    15.73     2.29P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.46    83.56     4.60    65.65     3.44    -6.01     0.00     2.37     0.29P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.60    35.25     1.40    68.62     3.76    14.85     0.01    14.66     3.36P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.64    52.84     4.83    65.94     3.51     8.02     0.00     2.78     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.92    82.51     4.41    64.37     3.72    -7.52     0.00     1.31     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.43    52.16     1.71    70.09     4.51    11.50     0.35    26.40     5.93P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.34    55.89    -0.68    64.79     3.80    -0.25     0.00     1.81     0.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.01    41.94     2.54    64.78     3.82     7.73     0.00     2.31     0.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.00    37.98     3.45    62.16     3.77     6.75     0.00     0.44     0.09P    0.07R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.79    66.07     4.24    59.55     4.30    -8.56     0.00     0.23     0.03P    1.43R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.25    56.12     0.67    54.53     3.46   -13.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.78R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.30    51.90    -3.88    56.76     3.97   -14.32     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.41R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.33    28.14    -2.28    55.37     3.94    -5.38     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.95R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.15    22.86    -7.98    54.48     3.76   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.70R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.04    13.89    -6.63    55.34     4.02    -2.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.83R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.34    25.59   -12.71    49.85     3.40   -23.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.40R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.41    44.73     1.10    49.93     3.67   -17.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.57R    0.02  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.17    11.27   -14.88    52.00     4.07   -15.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.84R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.66    22.49    -4.03    32.43     3.30   -41.12     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95