Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 22 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.00    99.77     2.79   101.49     3.51    56.93   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.64    19.77    -5.13    80.18     3.50    54.16     0.00    98.81    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.55    67.51    15.22    68.35     4.01    34.39     0.00     1.13    77.98    92.99    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.11    39.31    -3.72    63.10     3.84    16.24     0.00     0.05    12.26    53.36    91.02     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.74    31.23     0.80    61.29     3.90    19.97     0.00     0.01     7.61    35.39    83.62     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.12    65.93     7.51    56.36     4.02     8.55     0.00     0.00     0.50     5.18    33.93     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.48    83.86     9.58    55.19     4.16     3.04     0.00     0.00     0.53     3.58    23.33     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.67    12.94    -8.02    56.90     4.03    12.36     0.00     0.00     0.88     7.04    43.14     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.09    25.48    -5.83    54.83     4.11     5.39     0.00     0.00     0.27     2.33    21.57     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.62    77.47     3.93    49.29     3.71    -9.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.14     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.46    63.23    -0.98    48.85     3.76    -9.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.18     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.66    47.18    -4.45    49.28     3.90    -9.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.47     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.57    64.15    -5.18    45.11     3.70   -19.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.01R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.11    66.87    -1.15    43.70     3.82   -21.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.39R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.72    36.40     4.65    37.72     3.63   -13.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.81R    1.69  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.11    21.52    -2.57    38.55     3.93   -16.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.18R    2.01  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.53    27.75    -3.19    36.88     3.73   -21.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.81R    4.08  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.56    27.82    -3.46    35.94     3.67   -24.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.23R    5.15  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.41    43.60     0.80    33.95     3.92   -30.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.12R   16.92  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.17    29.11    -1.60    29.55     3.64   -34.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.40R   70.11  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.61    79.41     7.57    86.91     3.95    31.33    51.43    93.90   100.00    95.92P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.64    65.06     3.31    86.26     3.98    33.11    46.56    91.65    99.99    94.47P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.33    71.28     2.20    77.02     4.06    15.01     1.33     7.84    95.28    29.94P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.87    29.95     9.75    75.75     4.02    36.11     0.61     5.45    93.26    37.06P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.16    74.86     5.16    73.41     4.06    11.57     0.07     1.08    78.59    16.99P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       3.00    62.82     1.58    68.80     4.03     5.66     0.00     0.04    35.69     7.09P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.18    67.60    -1.95    67.46     4.04    -1.79     0.00     0.01    22.33     4.06P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.18    71.88     6.18    66.83     4.03     4.80     0.00     0.00    19.60     3.31P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2       0.03    50.52    -2.74    66.84     4.07     2.79     0.00     0.00    19.91     4.14P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.22    51.02     4.03    65.56     4.06     7.32     0.00     0.00    14.56     2.86P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1      -0.05    50.20    -2.39    65.85     4.01     1.93     0.00     0.01    13.41     2.81P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.03    33.41    -6.32    62.69     4.02    -0.97     0.00     0.00     3.87     0.79P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.24    67.94     4.49    61.58     4.02    -5.39     0.00     0.00     1.66     0.25P    0.09R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4      -0.11    49.93     7.57    60.12     4.01     3.73     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.17P    0.19R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.58    43.67    -1.43    59.63     4.00    -4.03     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.12P    0.23R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.37    56.56    -1.20    58.17     3.96   -10.92     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    1.19R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.76    23.37    -3.26    53.45     3.95    -7.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.30R    0.54  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.41    44.80    -2.11    52.70     3.95   -15.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.07R    1.20  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -9.16    15.61    -9.89    53.40     3.98    -9.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.21R    0.44  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.41    35.86    -3.27    52.50     3.96   -13.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.79R    1.26  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.30    32.59    -4.81    52.37     3.98   -15.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.57R    1.55  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.84    30.59     0.09    49.40     3.89   -13.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.49R    4.68  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.95    38.32    -6.73    44.94     3.94   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.84R   41.25  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.58    20.59    -5.86    43.88     3.91   -23.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.04R   49.06  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.69    95.83     9.34    82.09     4.27    20.06    55.53    75.21    98.16    79.85P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.06    58.88     4.42    77.96     3.98    28.83    17.42    41.86    89.52    54.85P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.84    66.66    11.41    75.74     3.96    29.19     8.00    22.30    79.40    35.92P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.65    52.92    -0.47    74.34     3.98    20.01     3.42    11.87    65.00    26.27P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.17    75.85     4.26    74.93     3.93    17.07     4.39    13.98    69.43    25.95P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.19    44.28     8.47    75.90     3.85    35.31     8.57    23.87    82.65    40.81P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.81    33.19    -4.22    72.49     3.72    19.72     0.93     4.52    47.04    17.77P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.98    93.28     5.94    72.06     4.24     4.08     1.43     4.72    38.38     9.55P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.35    39.13     3.20    69.65     4.20    20.94     0.31     1.64    24.06     7.51P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.32    35.82     1.18    66.04     3.61    14.75     0.00     0.01     3.68     0.96P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.94    59.02     6.11    64.77     3.95    10.11     0.00     0.03     2.47     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.95    37.10    -4.37    60.58     4.04     0.37     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.93    32.95    -0.68    56.75     3.90     0.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.74    54.19    -5.80    55.24     3.79   -14.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.21    40.70     3.63    54.89     4.02    -1.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.77    42.37    -6.12    53.66     4.03   -12.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.54    34.63     1.21    50.40     3.87    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.73R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.58    30.48    -1.67    47.18     3.84   -14.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.24R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.82    47.18    -1.46    48.28     4.15   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.10R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.98    28.42    -1.11    45.44     3.80   -15.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.37R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.45    48.99    -0.95    40.87     3.85   -32.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.33R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.32     4.31   -17.68    27.30     3.61   -53.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.36  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.28    25.98   -14.65    22.19     3.74   -47.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.64  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.34    84.37    10.74    82.80     4.04    26.12    16.44    66.70    99.86    75.13P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.78    86.08     8.39    86.25     4.30    28.25    48.86    87.82    99.99    91.18P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.48    64.17     1.31    83.79     4.07    27.08    23.69    74.78    99.92    82.86P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.88    80.27     0.65    79.09     3.96    12.63     2.85    25.49    98.33    43.21P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.94    80.95    15.24    80.19     4.21    28.57     8.09    42.48    99.33    57.08P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.82    46.38     3.25    71.91     4.04    17.34     0.03     1.47    70.26    20.31P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.59    52.59     4.23    70.98     4.01    14.92     0.02     0.97    61.00    15.17P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.23    78.76     7.05    69.25     3.99     5.90     0.00     0.24    37.28     6.74P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.48    39.56    -4.41    67.59     3.99     5.87     0.00     0.05    24.91     6.49P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.07    67.56    10.31    61.04     3.94     0.91     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.58    38.83    -0.39    63.18     4.18     3.73     0.00     0.00     5.40     1.20P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.67    47.32     7.12    60.37     3.94     3.96     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.97    59.32     2.09    57.90     3.85    -8.05     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.88    38.07    -9.80    60.20     4.28    -9.63     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.04    50.87    -2.80    58.02     4.10    -9.12     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.23    56.24     1.75    55.44     3.89   -10.58     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.25    49.55     3.08    52.85     4.08   -12.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.55    35.16    -9.02    53.81     3.96   -17.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.93    19.63   -10.00    52.60     3.96   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.43    13.50   -11.22    53.20     4.04   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.17     5.95   -11.09    52.79     4.31    -5.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.03  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.55    39.17     2.21    45.29     3.76   -19.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.63R    1.63  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.09    24.57    -5.90    41.31     3.82   -29.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.31R   12.31  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.78     1.43   -12.78    34.01     4.18   -28.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.99R   85.99  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.66    82.32    13.13    84.37     4.02    32.03    72.65    99.78    79.01P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.21    74.54     3.36    79.43     4.05    18.56    15.27    94.55    32.01P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.47    27.97    -1.59    77.25     3.78    27.97     6.84    90.50    36.17P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.66    34.55    -2.42    75.46     4.06    21.65     3.44    78.27    25.34P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.14    71.15     8.89    74.40     4.02    18.10     1.39    68.91    14.04P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.50    82.42     2.58    69.18     3.95    -0.53     0.06    15.55     2.35P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.53    83.71     4.71    65.64     3.43    -6.05     0.00     2.35     0.29P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.57    35.54     1.42    68.62     3.74    14.85     0.01    14.52     3.44P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.68    53.22     4.91    65.96     3.52     8.03     0.00     2.91     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.71    81.75     4.13    64.35     3.73    -7.54     0.00     1.34     0.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.54    52.53     1.86    70.10     4.54    11.51     0.35    26.65     5.86P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.10    54.74    -1.12    64.84     3.84    -0.16     0.00     1.87     0.29P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.01    41.81     2.55    64.79     3.81     7.75     0.00     2.24     0.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.84    38.27     3.64    62.08     3.77     6.65     0.00     0.33     0.07P    0.06R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.09    67.56     4.70    59.48     4.26    -8.65     0.00     0.21     0.03P    1.41R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.06    55.32     0.38    54.56     3.45   -13.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.79R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12      -0.00    50.76    -4.32    56.82     3.96   -14.22     0.00     0.02     0.00P    4.96R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.09    29.24    -1.98    55.31     3.97    -5.45     0.00     0.00     0.00P    8.18R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.43    21.77    -8.46    54.56     3.77   -10.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.37R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.91    14.05    -6.42    55.30     4.00    -2.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.07R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.11    26.14   -12.36    49.83     3.41   -23.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.46R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.26    45.35     1.32    49.91     3.68   -17.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.01R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.10    11.51   -14.80    52.03     4.08   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.68R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.68    22.22    -4.09    32.44     3.31   -41.06     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95