Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 21 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.07    99.77     2.99   101.46     3.52    56.87   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.60    20.11    -5.13    80.18     3.53    54.13     0.00    98.73    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.38    66.78    15.01    68.34     3.99    34.40     0.00     1.18    77.89    93.21    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.28    38.45    -3.95    63.15     3.87    16.34     0.00     0.08    12.43    53.65    91.18     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.91    30.93     0.51    61.29     3.89    19.99     0.00     0.00     7.61    35.26    83.77     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.25    66.47     7.67    56.33     4.01     8.48     0.00     0.00     0.45     4.89    33.94     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.58    84.27     9.68    55.11     4.15     2.94     0.00     0.00     0.52     3.46    22.64     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.59    13.32    -7.87    56.86     4.02    12.27     0.00     0.00     0.81     7.00    42.86     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.16    25.27    -5.93    54.87     4.13     5.48     0.00     0.00     0.31     2.39    22.27     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.71    77.88     4.08    49.32     3.70    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.16     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.31    62.34    -1.19    48.88     3.78    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.18     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.58    47.52    -4.28    49.23     3.92    -9.24     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.44     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.61    64.51    -5.13    45.15     3.72   -19.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.95R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.03    66.58    -1.28    43.74     3.81   -21.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.34R    0.02  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.73    36.42     4.61    37.71     3.61   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.88R    1.75  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.08    21.59    -2.60    38.60     3.93   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.99R    1.96  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.40    28.36    -3.00    36.89     3.74   -21.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.91R    3.97  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.64    27.54    -3.50    35.94     3.68   -24.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.01R    5.09  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.36    43.91     0.78    33.94     3.91   -30.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.43R   16.79  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.08    29.46    -1.46    29.49     3.64   -34.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.45R   70.41  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.83    80.13     7.81    86.89     3.96    31.32    51.60    94.03   100.00    95.94P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.64    64.92     3.29    86.24     4.02    33.08    46.38    91.58   100.00    94.37P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.45    71.64     2.43    76.97     4.05    14.95     1.36     7.87    95.33    29.62P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.69    30.54     9.95    75.72     4.00    36.08     0.60     5.44    93.24    37.51P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.16    74.90     5.21    73.43     4.03    11.60     0.06     0.99    78.81    16.70P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.99    63.01     1.58    68.80     4.05     5.65     0.00     0.06    35.58     7.29P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.01    66.79    -2.21    67.45     4.04    -1.78     0.00     0.01    21.98     3.83P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.09    71.42     6.06    66.83     4.05     4.79     0.00     0.00    19.69     3.51P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.16    49.34    -3.02    66.87     4.07     2.85     0.00     0.01    20.12     4.32P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.24    51.35     4.06    65.58     4.09     7.34     0.00     0.01    14.55     2.83P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.09    50.82    -2.23    65.85     4.02     1.92     0.00     0.01    13.39     2.70P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.94    33.73    -6.27    62.71     4.01    -0.96     0.00     0.00     3.96     0.87P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.23    68.06     4.51    61.55     4.03    -5.44     0.00     0.00     1.56     0.22P    0.11R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4      -0.11    50.17     7.50    60.14     4.00     3.80     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.15P    0.16R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.83    41.98    -1.76    59.68     4.00    -3.96     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.11P    0.17R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.49    57.48    -1.05    58.14     3.95   -10.97     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    1.27R    0.00  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.88    22.79    -3.39    53.47     3.93    -7.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.10R    0.56  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.37    44.90    -2.03    52.69     3.94   -15.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.26R    0.98  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.96    16.11    -9.68    53.30     4.01    -9.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.80R    0.57  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.50    35.52    -3.36    52.54     3.98   -13.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.66R    1.29  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.60    31.61    -5.28    52.43     3.97   -15.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.05R    1.46  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.82    30.60     0.16    49.44     3.92   -12.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.39R    4.61  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.95    38.05    -6.65    44.95     3.96   -32.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.68R   41.36  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.44    20.99    -5.66    43.86     3.89   -24.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.34R   49.17  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.66    95.82     9.25    82.09     4.25    20.08    56.10    75.28    98.21    79.75P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.89    58.02     4.12    78.00     3.96    28.89    17.23    42.07    89.89    55.27P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.76    66.38    11.28    75.77     3.94    29.25     8.07    22.45    79.67    35.96P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.56    52.64    -0.55    74.35     3.95    20.03     3.48    11.82    65.05    26.25P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.02    75.12     4.05    74.94     3.93    17.10     4.28    14.01    69.33    25.99P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.21    44.21     8.43    75.90     3.85    35.27     8.29    23.96    82.80    41.18P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.68    33.78    -4.03    72.46     3.71    19.68     0.82     4.16    46.86    17.35P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.03    93.49     6.04    72.03     4.23     4.03     1.40     4.64    37.87     9.33P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.20    40.04     3.48    69.66     4.17    20.97     0.33     1.55    24.08     7.35P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.41    35.79     1.01    66.11     3.61    14.86     0.00     0.01     3.64     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.93    59.05     6.05    64.75     3.96    10.08     0.00     0.03     2.39     0.54P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.80    37.56    -4.03    60.54     4.04     0.33     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.96    32.37    -0.84    56.73     3.90     0.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.72    53.98    -5.86    55.27     3.79   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.35    40.14     3.41    54.92     4.04    -1.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.78    42.36    -6.09    53.71     4.04   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.54    34.66     1.24    50.36     3.85    -9.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.79R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.56    30.57    -1.60    47.16     3.82   -14.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.97R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.83    46.89    -1.51    48.26     4.13   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.91R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.89    28.59    -0.91    45.40     3.81   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.69R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.54    48.54    -1.13    40.87     3.84   -32.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.41R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.12     4.63   -17.29    27.28     3.61   -53.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.17  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.11    26.49   -14.50    22.18     3.74   -47.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.82  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.35    84.29    10.68    82.80     4.04    26.13    16.89    66.67    99.87    74.76P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.99    86.41     8.70    86.17     4.26    28.17    48.68    87.75    99.99    90.98P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.63    65.05     1.56    83.71     4.06    26.95    23.11    74.25    99.92    82.49P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.62    79.46     0.32    79.16     3.97    12.69     3.09    26.04    98.31    43.82P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.96    81.07    15.22    80.18     4.21    28.53     8.16    42.53    99.29    57.24P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -1.06    45.24     2.93    71.90     4.02    17.33     0.04     1.46    70.23    20.43P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.41    51.74     3.96    71.01     4.00    14.97     0.02     1.01    61.30    15.21P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.17    78.61     6.93    69.24     3.96     5.88     0.01     0.23    36.82     6.62P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.36    40.20    -4.22    67.53     4.00     5.79     0.00     0.05    24.71     6.42P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.36    68.75    10.62    60.99     3.93     0.85     0.00     0.00     1.19     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.80    38.15    -0.70    63.25     4.18     3.82     0.00     0.01     5.69     1.35P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.71    47.19     7.04    60.39     3.93     4.01     0.00     0.00     1.09     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.16    60.29     2.34    57.90     3.88    -8.03     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.72    38.61    -9.53    60.20     4.27    -9.62     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.08    50.25    -2.97    58.06     4.11    -9.09     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.15    55.84     1.59    55.48     3.90   -10.49     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.31    49.60     3.02    52.87     4.09   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.49    35.59    -8.93    53.81     4.00   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.81    19.81    -9.86    52.58     3.97   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.61    12.94   -11.52    53.21     4.03   -10.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.17     5.79   -11.05    52.76     4.29    -5.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.03R    0.03  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.36    40.04     2.48    45.33     3.73   -19.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.40R    1.40  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.10    24.34    -5.88    41.30     3.79   -29.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.00R   12.00  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.76     1.36   -12.72    33.96     4.13   -28.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.54R   86.54  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.89    82.95    13.53    84.30     4.03    31.92    71.88    99.74    78.48P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.19    74.46     3.29    79.39     4.07    18.54    15.71    94.22    32.15P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.26    28.71    -1.23    77.22     3.76    27.91     6.67    90.20    35.15P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.69    34.78    -2.51    75.54     4.06    21.77     3.83    78.79    25.71P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.16    71.07     8.89    74.45     4.03    18.14     1.47    68.90    14.62P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.54    82.72     2.61    69.16     3.96    -0.57     0.06    15.56     2.32P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.56    83.64     4.77    65.67     3.44    -6.01     0.00     2.36     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.59    35.23     1.42    68.62     3.77    14.88     0.01    14.47     3.43P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.48    52.38     4.62    66.01     3.52     8.10     0.00     2.88     0.53P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.77    82.25     4.20    64.36     3.73    -7.56     0.00     1.32     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.12    50.59     1.25    70.20     4.56    11.65     0.38    27.13     6.31P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.25    55.59    -0.82    64.83     3.79    -0.19     0.00     1.76     0.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -1.87    42.44     2.74    64.76     3.81     7.65     0.00     2.05     0.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.05    37.65     3.34    62.18     3.76     6.78     0.00     0.41     0.07P    0.05R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.05    67.23     4.64    59.46     4.29    -8.69     0.00     0.20     0.03P    1.52R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       0.82    54.21     0.06    54.56     3.44   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.30R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.34    52.05    -3.83    56.78     3.97   -14.30     0.00     0.02     0.00P    5.28R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.20    28.91    -2.07    55.31     3.94    -5.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.36R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.45    21.61    -8.53    54.54     3.76   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.17R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.93    13.66    -6.43    55.28     3.99    -2.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.09R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.48    24.88   -12.94    49.87     3.41   -23.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.77R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.20    45.61     1.42    49.85     3.66   -17.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.25R    0.04  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.97    11.86   -14.58    52.02     4.09   -15.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.22R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.53    22.95    -3.86    32.43     3.30   -41.12     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.94