Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 20 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.09    99.80     3.01   101.46     3.52    56.88   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.59    19.94    -5.14    80.18     3.53    54.14     0.00    98.70    99.94   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.40    66.55    14.98    68.32     4.03    34.35     0.00     1.21    77.87    93.02    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.08    39.38    -3.54    63.10     3.85    16.20     0.00     0.07    12.25    53.15    90.89     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.93    30.35     0.54    61.30     3.89    20.02     0.00     0.01     7.79    35.46    83.90     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.20    66.19     7.54    56.38     4.03     8.55     0.00     0.00     0.50     5.06    34.26     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.53    83.99     9.62    55.18     4.18     3.05     0.00     0.00     0.55     3.71    23.20     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.56    13.18    -7.89    56.85     4.04    12.29     0.00     0.00     0.84     7.01    42.39     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.08    25.95    -5.84    54.84     4.14     5.42     0.00     0.00     0.26     2.44    21.82     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.63    77.34     3.93    49.32     3.72    -9.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.22     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.23    61.82    -1.33    48.92     3.77    -9.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.27     0.00     0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.72    46.98    -4.58    49.28     3.92    -9.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.48     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.54    64.42    -5.23    45.18     3.74   -19.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.04R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       2.96    66.10    -1.37    43.75     3.80   -21.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.33R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.71    36.69     4.66    37.70     3.64   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.05R    1.73  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.11    21.38    -2.58    38.58     3.92   -16.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.86R    1.90  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.44    28.08    -3.04    36.84     3.74   -21.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.69R    4.10  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.59    27.66    -3.47    35.89     3.67   -24.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.44R    5.29  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.29    44.14     1.01    33.91     3.89   -30.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.09R   16.74  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.98    30.08    -1.28    29.50     3.64   -34.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.47R   70.21  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.89    80.42     7.99    86.85     3.95    31.29    51.16    93.78   100.00    95.69P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.62    64.91     3.19    86.26     3.99    33.09    46.75    91.56   100.00    94.46P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.27    71.08     2.13    77.05     4.03    15.04     1.34     7.98    95.60    30.16P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.71    30.27     9.92    75.72     4.00    36.06     0.68     5.61    93.09    36.99P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       5.98    74.28     4.97    73.43     4.04    11.62     0.07     0.96    78.93    17.20P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       3.02    62.70     1.59    68.81     4.08     5.67     0.00     0.06    35.71     7.19P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.29    67.94    -1.81    67.43     4.02    -1.82     0.00     0.01    21.77     3.83P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.18    71.92     6.16    66.84     4.05     4.79     0.00     0.00    19.44     3.31P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.20    49.55    -3.07    66.90     4.10     2.89     0.00     0.01    20.66     4.48P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.35    51.98     4.26    65.56     4.09     7.31     0.00     0.01    14.36     2.63P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.06    50.63    -2.23    65.85     4.01     1.91     0.00     0.00    13.27     2.70P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.94    33.71    -6.26    62.70     4.02    -0.97     0.00     0.00     3.80     0.84P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.21    67.76     4.46    61.57     4.03    -5.42     0.00     0.00     1.60     0.21P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.11    51.07     7.83    60.09     4.01     3.70     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.17P    0.18R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.69    42.95    -1.55    59.62     4.00    -4.05     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.12P    0.21R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.34    56.46    -1.25    58.12     3.96   -10.99     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    1.24R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.88    23.16    -3.44    53.48     3.96    -7.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.10R    0.50  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.44    44.65    -2.19    52.73     3.93   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.69R    1.05  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.87    16.33    -9.54    53.28     3.99    -9.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.86R    0.55  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.50    35.56    -3.40    52.51     3.99   -13.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.96R    1.30  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.78    30.72    -5.50    52.50     3.98   -15.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.63R    1.43  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.74    30.97     0.30    49.38     3.89   -13.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.92R    4.91  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.91    38.44    -6.57    44.89     3.95   -32.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.10R   41.86  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.69    20.41    -6.00    43.91     3.91   -23.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.05R   48.40  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.62    95.76     9.22    82.11     4.25    20.11    55.97    75.32    98.16    79.80P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.98    58.44     4.26    77.98     3.99    28.84    17.21    41.92    89.55    55.02P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.78    66.20    11.31    75.73     3.97    29.18     7.96    22.00    79.05    35.59P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.58    52.50    -0.53    74.38     3.97    20.07     3.60    12.08    64.86    26.35P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.12    75.69     4.23    74.95     3.94    17.09     4.39    14.11    69.64    26.12P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.23    44.18     8.45    75.93     3.83    35.35     8.30    23.99    83.10    41.16P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.62    33.78    -3.99    72.46     3.72    19.72     0.93     4.20    46.83    17.69P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.96    93.44     5.88    72.08     4.23     4.12     1.39     4.79    38.71     9.43P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.37    38.92     3.19    69.65     4.18    20.96     0.25     1.55    23.92     7.44P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.34    35.74     1.15    66.05     3.61    14.78     0.00     0.01     3.67     0.91P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.95    58.94     6.14    64.75     3.95    10.07     0.00     0.02     2.33     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.84    37.57    -4.17    60.55     4.00     0.34     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -4.09    32.07    -0.92    56.80     3.93     0.24     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.85    54.39    -5.69    55.24     3.79   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.56    39.18     3.12    54.96     4.03    -1.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.76    42.34    -6.16    53.69     4.03   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.61    34.68     1.20    50.38     3.86    -9.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.76R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.48    30.59    -1.51    47.13     3.83   -14.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.05R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.78    47.15    -1.47    48.24     4.12   -20.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.13R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.88    28.38    -0.97    45.39     3.80   -15.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.68R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.40    49.34    -0.90    40.87     3.85   -32.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.22R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.19     4.68   -17.38    27.27     3.60   -53.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.47  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.12    26.54   -14.48    22.18     3.75   -47.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.53  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.38    84.45    10.83    82.79     4.04    26.12    16.67    66.79    99.86    75.00P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.98    86.59     8.71    86.17     4.28    28.16    48.39    87.37    99.99    90.67P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.55    64.44     1.41    83.82     4.06    27.11    23.60    74.95    99.91    82.98P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.81    80.04     0.56    79.13     3.98    12.64     3.02    25.71    98.34    43.65P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.93    81.04    15.19    80.17     4.24    28.55     8.23    42.44    99.25    57.02P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.83    46.54     3.24    71.88     4.04    17.30     0.04     1.43    70.16    19.94P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.36    51.42     3.88    71.05     4.03    15.00     0.04     1.02    62.18    15.79P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.52    79.54     7.45    69.19     3.99     5.78     0.00     0.24    36.51     6.63P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.26    40.50    -4.11    67.52     3.99     5.78     0.00     0.05    24.63     6.30P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       3.92    66.87    10.04    61.07     3.91     0.97     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.72    38.61    -0.59    63.20     4.17     3.73     0.00     0.00     5.45     1.26P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.61    47.84     7.20    60.37     3.95     3.95     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.08    59.94     2.22    57.89     3.89    -8.05     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.64    38.96    -9.39    60.18     4.26    -9.67     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.05    50.87    -2.80    58.03     4.13    -9.13     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.04    55.46     1.47    55.46     3.87   -10.52     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.40    49.16     2.84    52.90     4.09   -12.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.50    35.26    -8.93    53.83     3.99   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.83    20.01    -9.89    52.59     3.96   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.76    12.78   -11.74    53.24     4.04   -10.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.22     5.83   -11.12    52.77     4.27    -5.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.52    39.50     2.23    45.32     3.74   -19.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.32R    1.32  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -5.94    24.82    -5.71    41.26     3.79   -29.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.62R   12.62  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.90     1.23   -12.98    34.02     4.16   -28.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.02R   86.02  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.72    82.44    13.24    84.34     4.04    31.98    72.07    99.81    78.61P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.36    75.01     3.53    79.34     4.06    18.46    15.18    94.12    31.83P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.50    27.87    -1.64    77.31     3.76    28.04     7.19    90.83    35.97P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.75    34.28    -2.53    75.55     4.04    21.77     3.68    78.75    25.78P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.25    71.42     9.05    74.38     4.05    18.07     1.45    68.42    14.22P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.44    82.25     2.49    69.18     3.94    -0.52     0.07    15.53     2.25P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.45    83.45     4.59    65.65     3.43    -6.01     0.00     2.33     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.75    34.33     1.18    68.66     3.76    14.92     0.01    14.93     3.62P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.55    52.52     4.69    66.00     3.52     8.09     0.00     3.02     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.94    82.63     4.41    64.38     3.72    -7.53     0.00     1.30     0.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.42    52.06     1.71    70.07     4.57    11.46     0.36    26.33     5.94P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.16    55.24    -0.99    64.81     3.81    -0.17     0.00     1.82     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.09    41.40     2.41    64.82     3.83     7.79     0.00     2.23     0.39P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.05    37.44     3.42    62.13     3.77     6.71     0.00     0.37     0.09P    0.06R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.98    66.73     4.58    59.47     4.28    -8.70     0.00     0.21     0.03P    1.46R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.03    55.18     0.37    54.56     3.45   -13.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.47R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.25    51.79    -3.98    56.79     3.98   -14.29     0.00     0.01     0.01P    5.13R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.29    28.49    -2.26    55.33     3.95    -5.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.16R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.27    22.45    -8.25    54.53     3.76   -10.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.20R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.98    13.96    -6.48    55.32     3.98    -2.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.72R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.03    26.51   -12.29    49.80     3.40   -23.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.81R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.38    44.69     1.14    49.92     3.67   -17.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.85R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.94    11.92   -14.54    51.98     4.08   -15.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.13R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.54    22.96    -3.84    32.42     3.32   -41.12     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95