Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 19 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.05    99.81     2.99   101.45     3.51    56.85   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.58    20.10    -5.13    80.18     3.54    54.08     0.00    98.64    99.94   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.55    67.05    15.24    68.28     4.02    34.30     0.00     1.28    77.43    92.72    99.47     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.15    39.12    -3.75    63.13     3.84    16.29     0.00     0.06    12.54    53.16    91.04     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.94    30.32     0.45    61.33     3.89    20.05     0.00     0.01     7.90    35.70    83.94     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.19    66.29     7.54    56.38     4.02     8.53     0.00     0.00     0.51     5.06    34.04     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.45    83.79     9.45    55.23     4.16     3.10     0.00     0.00     0.56     3.70    23.33     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.54    13.38    -7.82    56.84     4.04    12.23     0.00     0.00     0.82     7.07    42.30     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.15    25.58    -5.92    54.87     4.15     5.48     0.00     0.00     0.30     2.46    22.08     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.61    77.29     3.91    49.31     3.72    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.12     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.37    62.69    -1.12    48.90     3.76    -9.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.23     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.57    47.54    -4.30    49.25     3.89    -9.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.39     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.59    64.32    -5.15    45.12     3.71   -19.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.99R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.05    66.56    -1.24    43.70     3.80   -21.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.47R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.75    36.47     4.59    37.73     3.64   -13.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.86R    1.77  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.17    21.09    -2.63    38.57     3.93   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.06R    1.93  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.47    28.06    -3.06    36.89     3.76   -21.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.50R    4.05  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.70    27.09    -3.61    35.93     3.66   -24.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.02R    5.01  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.28    44.34     0.99    33.90     3.89   -30.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.54R   16.80  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.06    29.47    -1.42    29.50     3.62   -34.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.52R   70.38  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.73    79.88     7.72    86.91     3.96    31.34    51.43    94.05   100.00    95.95P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.65    64.92     3.25    86.25     3.99    33.08    46.44    91.65   100.00    94.42P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.42    71.55     2.34    76.96     4.03    14.94     1.33     7.63    95.25    29.45P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.86    29.75     9.75    75.75     4.01    36.11     0.73     5.59    93.34    37.65P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.07    74.57     5.08    73.41     4.02    11.60     0.06     0.97    78.73    17.10P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.74    61.85     1.24    68.84     4.05     5.68     0.00     0.04    36.07     7.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.17    67.34    -1.94    67.45     4.06    -1.80     0.00     0.02    21.91     3.94P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.21    71.99     6.20    66.86     4.05     4.81     0.00     0.00    20.00     3.52P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.23    49.42    -3.09    66.91     4.05     2.89     0.00     0.02    20.20     4.24P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.37    51.76     4.28    65.54     4.06     7.31     0.00     0.01    14.26     2.67P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1      -0.01    50.15    -2.40    65.87     4.00     1.92     0.00     0.00    13.09     2.59P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.03    33.49    -6.42    62.69     4.00    -0.98     0.00     0.00     3.82     0.86P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.21    68.02     4.44    61.59     4.01    -5.37     0.00     0.00     1.56     0.26P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.26    51.92     8.06    60.03     4.00     3.65     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.14P    0.14R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.76    42.63    -1.65    59.66     4.03    -3.99     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.13P    0.24R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.35    56.46    -1.26    58.16     3.97   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    1.20R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.79    23.26    -3.19    53.45     3.95    -7.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   10.39R    0.51  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.38    44.76    -2.05    52.69     3.94   -15.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   16.76R    1.14  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.98    16.09    -9.73    53.30     3.97    -9.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.37R    0.48  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.47    35.58    -3.32    52.56     3.99   -13.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.55R    1.21  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.47    32.12    -5.06    52.41     3.99   -15.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   20.09R    1.46  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.72    31.04     0.29    49.38     3.90   -13.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.83R    4.62  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.84    38.68    -6.49    44.91     3.95   -32.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.05R   41.62  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.72    20.17    -6.07    43.88     3.90   -23.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.32R   48.96  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.57    95.81     9.17    82.12     4.24    20.11    55.90    75.23    98.23    79.87P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.18    59.10     4.54    77.94     4.00    28.79    17.09    41.80    89.36    54.89P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.78    66.34    11.29    75.74     3.97    29.21     8.23    22.38    79.19    35.89P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.46    51.75    -0.73    74.42     3.97    20.16     3.58    12.22    65.61    26.64P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.10    75.51     4.21    74.94     3.95    17.06     4.36    14.10    69.00    25.93P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.14    44.42     8.59    75.88     3.83    35.26     8.18    23.58    82.60    40.54P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.77    33.60    -4.17    72.53     3.71    19.79     0.93     4.32    47.50    17.97P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.96    93.33     5.97    72.05     4.24     4.09     1.40     4.72    38.30     9.29P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.29    39.56     3.30    69.65     4.19    20.93     0.33     1.62    23.94     7.49P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.43    35.63     1.00    66.08     3.62    14.80     0.00     0.01     3.68     0.98P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.81    58.50     5.89    64.80     3.97    10.13     0.00     0.03     2.38     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.82    37.49    -4.22    60.56     4.04     0.34     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.98    32.50    -0.78    56.71     3.92     0.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.83    54.29    -5.70    55.26     3.80   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.42    39.62     3.34    54.94     4.03    -1.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.76    42.51    -6.13    53.63     4.03   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.43    35.26     1.44    50.32     3.86    -9.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.82R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.48    30.87    -1.51    47.15     3.83   -14.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.34R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.80    47.28    -1.40    48.30     4.13   -20.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.86R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.95    28.46    -1.00    45.40     3.81   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.76R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.40    49.20    -0.83    40.87     3.85   -32.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.97R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.28     4.29   -17.59    27.27     3.61   -53.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   20.63  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.21    26.24   -14.67    22.20     3.75   -47.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.37  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.28    84.12    10.64    82.83     4.05    26.17    16.71    67.11    99.90    75.38P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.74    85.89     8.31    86.24     4.28    28.27    49.01    87.88    99.99    91.14P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.62    64.81     1.54    83.78     4.08    27.06    23.41    74.48    99.91    82.61P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.64    79.45     0.34    79.18     3.99    12.75     2.94    26.05    98.43    43.79P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       8.11    81.50    15.43    80.14     4.23    28.49     7.86    41.83    99.29    56.43P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.91    46.02     3.12    71.90     4.04    17.32     0.04     1.43    70.48    20.04P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.52    52.26     4.11    70.98     4.01    14.91     0.03     0.94    61.47    15.52P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.37    79.07     7.21    69.17     3.96     5.80     0.00     0.22    36.46     6.66P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.26    40.68    -4.10    67.53     3.99     5.80     0.00     0.05    24.52     6.39P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.18    67.89    10.43    61.02     3.96     0.88     0.00     0.00     1.35     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.61    38.91    -0.44    63.22     4.19     3.76     0.00     0.00     5.60     1.34P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.71    47.37     7.07    60.37     3.93     3.96     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.73    58.22     1.75    57.96     3.89    -7.96     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.68    38.93    -9.46    60.15     4.27    -9.70     0.00     0.00     1.08     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.15    50.03    -3.07    58.08     4.09    -9.06     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.04    55.15     1.48    55.53     3.92   -10.45     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.14    50.12     3.22    52.85     4.12   -12.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.60    35.22    -9.10    53.82     3.97   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.92    19.59    -9.99    52.57     3.97   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.38    13.46   -11.19    53.20     4.05   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.09     5.98   -10.94    52.72     4.29    -5.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.51    39.53     2.30    45.33     3.75   -19.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.44R    1.44  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.07    24.57    -5.81    41.28     3.78   -29.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.36R   12.36  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.80     1.31   -12.84    34.02     4.14   -28.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.16R   86.16  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.60    82.54    13.09    84.40     4.04    32.06    72.46    99.81    79.33P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.27    74.82     3.39    79.37     4.06    18.52    15.29    94.25    32.09P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.45    28.11    -1.53    77.27     3.78    27.99     6.79    90.51    35.75P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.71    34.56    -2.49    75.49     4.06    21.71     3.62    78.75    25.41P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.41    72.11     9.33    74.39     4.04    18.06     1.38    68.55    13.78P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.54    82.52     2.64    69.14     3.93    -0.58     0.05    15.25     2.17P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.72    84.06     5.01    65.59     3.44    -6.11     0.00     2.31     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.63    35.06     1.34    68.66     3.80    14.90     0.01    15.29     3.71P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.40    51.91     4.51    66.00     3.51     8.09     0.00     2.97     0.58P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.66    81.72     3.99    64.38     3.72    -7.50     0.00     1.26     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.52    52.41     1.85    70.09     4.54    11.45     0.40    26.39     6.02P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.13    55.08    -1.06    64.85     3.82    -0.14     0.00     1.91     0.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.04    41.93     2.44    64.78     3.82     7.74     0.00     2.12     0.39P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.84    38.49     3.70    62.08     3.77     6.65     0.00     0.41     0.09P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.96    66.70     4.51    59.48     4.28    -8.70     0.00     0.21     0.02P    1.51R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.14    55.98     0.60    54.52     3.44   -13.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.60R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.14    51.17    -4.18    56.83     3.98   -14.24     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.27R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.27    28.75    -2.22    55.36     3.95    -5.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.87R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.35    22.26    -8.33    54.51     3.77   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.70R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.02    13.84    -6.59    55.35     3.99    -2.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.63R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.31    25.39   -12.72    49.83     3.40   -23.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.38R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.30    45.21     1.23    49.92     3.66   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.74R    0.02  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.01    11.59   -14.66    52.00     4.07   -15.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.22R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.59    22.66    -3.86    32.44     3.32   -41.09     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95