Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 18 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.08    99.80     3.01   101.45     3.51    56.82   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.75    19.34    -5.43    80.23     3.49    54.24     0.00    98.79    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.47    67.10    15.11    68.32     4.00    34.39     0.00     1.15    78.07    93.11    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.05    39.64    -3.57    63.06     3.85    16.16     0.00     0.05    12.29    53.19    90.80     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.70    31.61     0.85    61.22     3.91    19.89     0.00     0.01     7.42    34.90    83.29     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.21    66.69     7.63    56.35     4.01     8.51     0.00     0.00     0.50     5.20    34.17     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.62    84.59     9.74    55.18     4.14     3.00     0.00     0.00     0.58     3.61    23.08     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.50    13.63    -7.76    56.87     4.03    12.30     0.00     0.00     0.89     7.30    42.85     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.22    25.17    -6.04    54.91     4.13     5.53     0.00     0.00     0.29     2.59    22.31     0.00R    0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.50    76.99     3.76    49.35     3.70    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.18     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.29    62.49    -1.24    48.90     3.76    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.28     0.00     0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.65    47.27    -4.40    49.28     3.91    -9.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.53     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.49    63.69    -5.32    45.15     3.70   -19.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.00R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.19    67.19    -1.02    43.69     3.80   -21.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.43R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.73    36.53     4.65    37.71     3.65   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.10R    1.82  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.12    21.08    -2.57    38.58     3.93   -16.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.87R    1.96  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.49    27.92    -3.11    36.87     3.74   -21.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.52R    4.07  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.59    27.51    -3.51    35.95     3.68   -24.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.13R    5.15  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.52    42.89     0.56    33.95     3.90   -30.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.29R   16.40  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.03    29.61    -1.33    29.49     3.62   -34.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.61R   70.56  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.99    80.72     8.07    86.84     3.95    31.24    51.45    93.91   100.00    95.82P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.81    65.63     3.54    86.21     3.99    33.00    46.53    91.78   100.00    94.59P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.55    72.13     2.52    76.98     4.05    14.94     1.26     7.65    95.07    29.23P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.96    29.17     9.58    75.77     3.98    36.13     0.69     5.51    93.37    37.75P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.20    74.89     5.23    73.39     4.06    11.60     0.07     1.05    78.69    17.33P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.88    62.56     1.38    68.81     4.06     5.64     0.00     0.06    35.95     7.22P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.22    67.60    -1.88    67.45     4.04    -1.78     0.00     0.01    21.99     3.81P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.21    71.96     6.22    66.83     4.03     4.77     0.00     0.01    19.53     3.36P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.06    49.99    -2.85    66.85     4.05     2.80     0.00     0.01    19.87     4.11P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.40    52.15     4.29    65.57     4.08     7.35     0.00     0.01    14.50     2.75P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1      -0.04    50.09    -2.36    65.87     4.02     1.94     0.00     0.00    13.60     2.69P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.19    32.80    -6.67    62.77     4.02    -0.86     0.00     0.00     3.97     0.83P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.09    67.64     4.30    61.58     4.05    -5.40     0.00     0.00     1.70     0.20P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.19    51.33     7.98    60.04     4.00     3.64     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.14P    0.18R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.84    42.61    -1.70    59.70     3.98    -3.94     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.16P    0.22R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.35    56.48    -1.27    58.14     3.96   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P    1.23R    0.02  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.74    23.45    -3.20    53.44     3.95    -7.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   10.23R    0.55  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.43    44.71    -2.14    52.68     3.94   -15.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.04R    1.01  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -9.03    15.59    -9.73    53.34     3.99    -9.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.51R    0.56  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.63    34.99    -3.54    52.55     4.00   -13.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.92R    1.32  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.51    31.85    -5.12    52.40     4.00   -15.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.54R    1.57  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.80    30.50     0.12    49.42     3.91   -12.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.21R    4.79  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.97    38.08    -6.72    44.96     3.94   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.69R   41.24  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.71    20.12    -6.06    43.90     3.89   -23.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.14R   48.94  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.60    95.62     9.20    82.12     4.24    20.12    56.19    75.55    98.18    80.06P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.99    58.51     4.24    77.96     3.98    28.84    17.05    41.92    89.59    54.86P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.93    67.02    11.55    75.73     3.96    29.20     7.91    22.26    79.05    35.93P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.62    52.54    -0.51    74.40     3.97    20.09     3.63    12.20    65.76    26.86P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.14    75.76     4.23    74.95     3.94    17.07     4.23    13.86    69.46    25.80P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.20    44.41     8.49    75.91     3.84    35.32     8.41    23.68    82.95    40.62P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.61    33.92    -3.96    72.44     3.72    19.64     0.86     4.25    46.49    17.55P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.99    93.33     5.98    72.05     4.24     4.09     1.44     4.80    38.42     9.58P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.19    40.10     3.47    69.59     4.21    20.86     0.27     1.45    24.02     7.31P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.41    35.85     1.04    66.10     3.60    14.82     0.00     0.01     3.66     0.95P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.89    58.80     6.05    64.75     3.94    10.05     0.00     0.01     2.24     0.43P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -3.02    36.60    -4.46    60.62     4.05     0.43     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.99    32.54    -0.77    56.75     3.91     0.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.90    54.64    -5.58    55.22     3.81   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.34    39.98     3.45    54.90     4.03    -1.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.81    42.11    -6.20    53.67     4.03   -12.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.56    34.46     1.20    50.39     3.86    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.82R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.61    29.87    -1.75    47.19     3.81   -14.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.99R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.76    47.36    -1.37    48.26     4.14   -20.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.14R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.85    28.64    -0.87    45.38     3.80   -15.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.83R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.58    48.58    -1.15    40.91     3.85   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.00R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.31     4.50   -17.67    27.27     3.63   -53.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.77  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.22    26.18   -14.62    22.21     3.74   -47.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.23  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.12    83.77    10.39    82.88     4.04    26.23    17.02    67.50    99.85    75.61P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.85    86.09     8.50    86.18     4.28    28.19    48.36    87.60    99.99    90.97P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.64    64.67     1.61    83.78     4.07    27.06    23.61    74.49    99.91    82.71P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.73    79.77     0.42    79.15     3.98    12.70     2.88    25.90    98.37    43.57P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.93    80.93    15.17    80.18     4.20    28.54     8.04    42.03    99.32    56.43P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.87    46.33     3.19    71.90     4.01    17.35     0.04     1.35    70.28    19.94P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.42    52.03     3.92    71.00     4.04    14.98     0.04     0.88    61.45    15.61P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.36    79.14     7.27    69.21     3.98     5.81     0.00     0.21    36.69     6.61P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.35    40.12    -4.21    67.54     3.98     5.79     0.00     0.05    24.70     6.57P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.09    67.28    10.29    61.04     3.92     0.92     0.00     0.00     1.33     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.61    38.87    -0.37    63.17     4.18     3.68     0.00     0.00     5.60     1.30P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.70    47.52     7.10    60.37     3.94     3.95     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.10    59.76     2.21    57.91     3.90    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.69    38.67    -9.44    60.17     4.27    -9.67     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.00    50.77    -2.84    58.04     4.10    -9.13     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.20    56.27     1.64    55.49     3.91   -10.47     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.40    49.04     2.81    52.89     4.11   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.47    35.73    -8.94    53.78     3.98   -17.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.76    19.95    -9.74    52.55     3.98   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.49    13.39   -11.29    53.20     4.05   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.30     5.48   -11.19    52.79     4.29    -5.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.40    39.93     2.35    45.30     3.75   -19.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.52R    1.52  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.09    24.55    -5.91    41.29     3.80   -29.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.21R   12.21  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.91     1.31   -12.94    34.03     4.13   -28.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.22R   86.22  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.75    82.44    13.29    84.37     4.05    32.02    72.23    99.76    78.79P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.35    74.87     3.58    79.36     4.07    18.52    15.38    94.13    31.77P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.49    27.75    -1.55    77.31     3.78    28.02     6.86    90.73    36.15P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.66    34.57    -2.42    75.52     4.04    21.75     3.66    78.96    25.66P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.32    71.61     9.14    74.39     4.03    18.08     1.50    68.56    14.12P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.45    82.37     2.49    69.18     3.93    -0.51     0.07    15.80     2.37P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.48    83.21     4.66    65.66     3.44    -6.03     0.00     2.40     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.53    35.25     1.50    68.61     3.78    14.83     0.00    14.68     3.53P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.52    52.56     4.67    65.99     3.50     8.06     0.00     2.92     0.53P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.99    82.47     4.54    64.29     3.73    -7.64     0.00     1.29     0.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.67    53.09     2.07    70.06     4.51    11.45     0.30    26.27     5.82P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.31    55.80    -0.76    64.80     3.81    -0.20     0.00     1.77     0.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.11    41.51     2.35    64.78     3.79     7.74     0.00     2.12     0.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.93    37.93     3.55    62.12     3.78     6.69     0.00     0.37     0.06P    0.05R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.84    66.56     4.30    59.53     4.27    -8.61     0.00     0.24     0.04P    1.40R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       0.80    54.25     0.02    54.60     3.45   -13.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.36R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.27    51.95    -3.98    56.78     3.95   -14.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.02R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.26    28.70    -2.24    55.38     3.94    -5.34     0.00     0.00     0.00P    8.06R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.21    22.60    -8.14    54.52     3.76   -10.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.55R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.84    13.83    -6.35    55.29     4.00    -2.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.02R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.26    25.97   -12.60    49.81     3.41   -23.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.91R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.55    44.01     0.89    49.93     3.69   -17.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.68R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.08    11.49   -14.79    52.03     4.08   -15.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.93R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.82    21.92    -4.24    32.46     3.32   -41.06     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.95