Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 17 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.09    99.81     3.08   101.47     3.52    56.88   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.61    20.05    -5.18    80.21     3.50    54.17     0.00    98.83    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.48    66.95    15.14    68.29     4.00    34.32     0.00     1.10    78.01    92.96    99.48     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.05    39.18    -3.58    63.09     3.85    16.21     0.00     0.06    12.41    53.34    91.01     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.77    30.98     0.74    61.25     3.87    19.91     0.00     0.01     7.37    35.12    83.73     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.26    66.61     7.70    56.33     4.02     8.48     0.00     0.00     0.50     5.14    34.04     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.54    84.32     9.60    55.18     4.16     3.05     0.00     0.00     0.62     3.74    23.17     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.54    13.43    -7.82    56.85     4.02    12.29     0.00     0.00     0.82     7.09    42.58     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.15    25.38    -5.88    54.85     4.13     5.45     0.00     0.00     0.28     2.49    22.00     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.66    77.49     4.02    49.33     3.70    -9.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.22     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.32    62.32    -1.18    48.88     3.77    -9.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.21     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.61    47.59    -4.38    49.25     3.90    -9.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.48     0.04R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.64    64.66    -5.06    45.11     3.70   -19.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.99R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.05    66.48    -1.24    43.70     3.82   -21.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.42R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.90    35.58     4.36    37.77     3.65   -13.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.91R    1.81  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.14    21.15    -2.66    38.61     3.92   -16.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.82R    1.90  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.47    27.77    -3.06    36.86     3.74   -21.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.33R    4.19  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.65    27.49    -3.60    35.99     3.68   -24.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.67R    4.98  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.49    43.40     0.65    33.96     3.89   -30.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.24R   16.92  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.15    28.87    -1.63    29.53     3.63   -34.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.56R   70.16  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.76    79.90     7.75    86.87     3.94    31.29    51.52    93.89   100.00    95.76P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.77    65.41     3.44    86.20     4.00    33.01    46.41    91.49   100.00    94.35P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.27    70.97     2.10    77.00     4.05    14.98     1.27     7.89    95.32    29.72P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.87    29.55     9.75    75.73     4.00    36.09     0.70     5.52    93.34    37.53P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.05    74.45     5.06    73.41     4.06    11.60     0.09     1.08    78.69    17.29P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       3.17    63.26     1.84    68.76     4.05     5.58     0.00     0.06    35.54     6.96P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.20    67.58    -1.95    67.48     4.07    -1.77     0.00     0.01    22.50     3.93P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       4.98    70.87     5.95    66.89     4.05     4.84     0.00     0.02    20.03     3.44P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.25    49.11    -3.18    66.90     4.07     2.91     0.00     0.02    20.46     4.36P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.43    52.15     4.35    65.52     4.07     7.25     0.00     0.01    13.77     2.58P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.21    51.32    -2.04    65.78     4.01     1.81     0.00     0.00    12.99     2.60P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.01    33.60    -6.37    62.71     4.02    -0.95     0.00     0.00     3.91     0.87P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.10    67.51     4.30    61.59     4.01    -5.38     0.00     0.00     1.59     0.29P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.06    50.89     7.73    60.11     4.02     3.71     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.17P    0.16R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.77    42.89    -1.65    59.69     3.99    -3.96     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.12P    0.23R    0.01  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.32    56.20    -1.31    58.21     3.97   -10.86     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    1.18R    0.00  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.66    23.65    -3.09    53.45     3.95    -7.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    10.30R    0.53  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.34    45.03    -2.02    52.73     3.94   -15.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.62R    1.02  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -9.03    16.14    -9.77    53.31     4.00    -9.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.57R    0.54  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.28    36.46    -3.07    52.47     3.98   -13.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.06R    1.31  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.51    31.99    -5.14    52.43     3.99   -15.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   20.17R    1.55  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.66    31.20     0.37    49.34     3.91   -13.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.42R    4.95  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.11    37.64    -6.83    44.99     3.99   -32.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.11R   41.45  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.87    19.71    -6.23    43.93     3.90   -23.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.12R   48.64  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.68    95.79     9.35    82.09     4.25    20.07    55.62    75.25    98.25    79.66P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.90    58.07     4.09    78.04     3.99    28.94    17.71    42.63    90.02    55.63P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.90    66.59    11.50    75.73     3.96    29.18     7.93    21.87    79.21    35.57P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.61    52.41    -0.47    74.40     3.97    20.13     3.72    11.95    65.27    26.02P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.14    75.75     4.29    74.92     3.94    17.03     4.26    13.91    69.23    25.95P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.17    44.69     8.52    75.90     3.83    35.30     8.23    23.85    82.97    41.03P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.91    32.59    -4.39    72.52     3.72    19.78     0.96     4.43    47.26    18.17P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.05    93.61     6.09    72.02     4.22     4.05     1.27     4.55    37.91     9.21P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.26    39.69     3.32    69.60     4.16    20.86     0.29     1.53    23.60     7.27P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.48    35.13     0.96    66.07     3.62    14.79     0.00     0.01     3.74     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.83    58.75     5.95    64.76     3.95    10.07     0.01     0.02     2.33     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.82    37.69    -4.18    60.60     4.03     0.41     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.91    32.99    -0.65    56.74     3.93     0.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.82    54.38    -5.65    55.24     3.82   -14.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.29    40.41     3.55    54.85     4.02    -1.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.72    42.54    -6.02    53.62     4.02   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.53    34.73     1.29    50.39     3.88    -9.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.81R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.67    29.72    -1.79    47.18     3.82   -14.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.05R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.76    47.31    -1.43    48.26     4.14   -20.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.24R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -5.03    28.12    -1.15    45.43     3.83   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.72R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.55    48.67    -1.18    40.89     3.86   -32.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.94R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.07     4.75   -17.24    27.23     3.62   -53.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   21.15  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.29    25.87   -14.76    22.24     3.77   -47.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   78.85  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.40    84.40    10.80    82.77     4.06    26.09    16.72    66.64    99.81    75.07P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.73    85.73     8.30    86.21     4.27    28.21    49.03    87.96    99.98    91.34P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.83    65.64     1.80    83.72     4.07    26.97    23.27    74.40    99.90    82.21P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.87    80.32     0.66    79.11     3.98    12.63     2.88    25.97    98.36    43.76P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       8.07    81.45    15.36    80.14     4.23    28.53     8.02    42.31    99.36    56.80P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.89    46.07     3.17    71.89     4.04    17.30     0.05     1.40    70.25    20.22P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.54    52.22     4.14    70.98     4.01    14.92     0.03     1.02    61.20    15.33P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.20    78.91     6.95    69.23     3.97     5.90     0.00     0.24    36.92     6.71P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.37    40.05    -4.23    67.54     3.99     5.85     0.00     0.06    24.81     6.45P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       3.98    67.14    10.15    61.06     3.94     0.96     0.00     0.00     1.32     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.88    37.92    -0.76    63.25     4.16     3.80     0.00     0.00     5.63     1.42P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.76    47.35     6.98    60.38     3.94     3.96     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.13    59.86     2.30    57.91     3.89    -8.02     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.64    39.09    -9.42    60.13     4.24    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.05    50.72    -2.79    58.04     4.11    -9.13     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.08    55.24     1.50    55.50     3.91   -10.46     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.18    50.08     3.18    52.85     4.08   -12.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.60    35.23    -9.12    53.85     4.02   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.87    19.63    -9.94    52.60     3.99   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.62    12.99   -11.49    53.26     4.03   -10.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.40     5.41   -11.39    52.83     4.30    -5.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.55    39.37     2.16    45.33     3.75   -19.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.36R    1.36  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -5.90    24.89    -5.58    41.27     3.80   -29.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.18R   12.18  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.75     1.41   -12.74    33.94     4.12   -28.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.41R   86.41  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.61    82.25    13.09    84.41     4.04    32.06    72.76    99.78    79.28P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.30    74.81     3.51    79.35     4.05    18.48    15.11    94.39    31.57P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.52    27.66    -1.68    77.25     3.76    27.96     6.73    90.42    36.15P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.84    34.02    -2.67    75.53     4.06    21.76     3.62    78.94    25.55P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.38    71.96     9.22    74.36     4.04    18.02     1.34    68.39    13.88P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.61    82.50     2.73    69.14     3.95    -0.58     0.05    15.40     2.34P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.36    83.13     4.40    65.64     3.44    -6.01     0.00     2.35     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.55    35.14     1.47    68.64     3.77    14.88     0.01    14.62     3.51P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.54    52.77     4.69    65.99     3.51     8.07     0.00     2.90     0.49P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.88    82.37     4.38    64.34     3.72    -7.59     0.00     1.32     0.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.51    52.26     1.80    70.12     4.53    11.51     0.38    26.81     5.91P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.25    55.58    -0.88    64.83     3.80    -0.17     0.00     1.98     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.05    41.75     2.48    64.78     3.81     7.73     0.00     2.09     0.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.90    38.17     3.60    62.10     3.79     6.67     0.00     0.36     0.07P    0.09R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.13    67.44     4.79    59.43     4.27    -8.73     0.00     0.24     0.03P    1.49R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.00    55.37     0.30    54.54     3.45   -13.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.76R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.31    52.02    -3.89    56.78     3.96   -14.33     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.22R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.49    27.55    -2.54    55.41     3.95    -5.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.84R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.28    22.34    -8.19    54.49     3.73   -10.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.50R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.08    13.64    -6.67    55.36     4.01    -2.83     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.71R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.19    25.90   -12.52    49.87     3.40   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.35R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.42    44.63     1.06    49.94     3.66   -17.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.87R    0.04  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -10.96    11.89   -14.59    52.00     4.08   -15.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.14R    0.01  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.60    22.40    -3.92    32.47     3.32   -41.04     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.93