Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 16 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.05    99.78     2.95   101.46     3.49    56.89   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.55    20.15    -4.99    80.15     3.54    54.09     0.00    98.67    99.95   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.56    67.62    15.23    68.32     4.00    34.35     0.00     1.27    77.79    93.09    99.52     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.21    38.74    -3.82    63.11     3.84    16.25     0.00     0.06    12.39    53.39    90.97     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.65    31.88     0.93    61.24     3.90    19.90     0.00     0.00     7.66    35.02    83.36     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       2.97    65.33     7.21    56.44     4.03     8.64     0.00     0.00     0.52     5.24    34.86     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.48    84.14     9.48    55.19     4.15     3.04     0.00     0.00     0.54     3.64    22.77     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.56    13.29    -7.83    56.88     4.03    12.29     0.00     0.00     0.84     6.99    42.57     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.15    25.22    -5.91    54.88     4.13     5.47     0.00     0.00     0.30     2.51    22.14     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.59    77.17     3.91    49.31     3.71    -9.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.11     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.35    62.39    -1.15    48.90     3.76    -9.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.17     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.54    47.59    -4.27    49.24     3.90    -9.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.44     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.41    63.59    -5.38    45.19     3.71   -19.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.91R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.07    66.59    -1.20    43.71     3.82   -21.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.38R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.60    37.14     4.79    37.73     3.67   -13.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.26R    1.76  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.25    20.94    -2.79    38.62     3.93   -16.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.91R    1.87  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.51    27.82    -3.13    36.86     3.74   -21.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.75R    4.11  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.68    27.16    -3.58    35.94     3.67   -24.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.58R    5.02  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.42    43.58     0.70    33.91     3.92   -30.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.54R   16.55  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -3.87    30.36    -1.16    29.45     3.63   -34.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.64R   70.65  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.71    79.96     7.75    86.87     3.95    31.29    51.64    93.88   100.00    95.79P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.74    65.23     3.37    86.18     4.03    32.98    46.17    91.22   100.00    94.08P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.39    71.19     2.26    76.97     4.07    14.93     1.43     7.98    95.12    29.94P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.97    28.93     9.57    75.78     4.00    36.16     0.68     5.78    93.51    38.07P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.20    75.10     5.23    73.38     4.01    11.56     0.08     1.03    78.84    16.92P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.99    62.78     1.58    68.81     4.05     5.66     0.00     0.06    35.74     6.83P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.02    66.76    -2.11    67.46     4.07    -1.78     0.00     0.02    22.16     3.93P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.25    72.04     6.29    66.83     4.04     4.79     0.00     0.01    19.66     3.35P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.09    49.84    -2.95    66.87     4.08     2.84     0.00     0.01    20.19     4.20P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.38    51.76     4.32    65.56     4.07     7.32     0.00     0.01    14.27     2.79P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.04    50.68    -2.32    65.90     4.01     1.97     0.00     0.01    13.46     2.77P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.93    33.65    -6.27    62.72     3.98    -0.97     0.00     0.00     3.63     0.78P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.18    68.04     4.43    61.56     4.03    -5.39     0.00     0.00     1.75     0.25P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.33    51.78     8.14    60.03     4.01     3.65     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.16P    0.19R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.69    43.07    -1.57    59.67     4.00    -3.98     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.12P    0.21R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.29    56.09    -1.35    58.17     3.96   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    1.20R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.80    23.04    -3.30    53.49     3.97    -7.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.22R    0.50  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.48    44.24    -2.15    52.71     3.96   -15.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   17.04R    1.11  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.87    16.11    -9.49    53.31     3.99    -9.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.71R    0.53  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.51    35.34    -3.41    52.48     3.97   -13.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.01R    1.27  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.78    30.66    -5.60    52.49     3.99   -15.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.72R    1.50  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.58    31.28     0.45    49.35     3.90   -13.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.77R    5.08  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.90    38.24    -6.60    44.93     3.92   -32.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.00R   41.71  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.89    19.49    -6.30    43.97     3.90   -23.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.87R   48.29  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.62    95.76     9.24    82.12     4.26    20.12    56.16    75.27    98.18    79.79P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.18    59.32     4.55    77.92     3.99    28.77    16.79    41.52    89.19    54.42P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.70    66.06    11.20    75.75     3.97    29.23     8.04    22.33    79.34    35.85P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.57    52.42    -0.51    74.38     3.97    20.09     3.63    11.99    65.25    26.46P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.14    75.65     4.24    74.95     3.93    17.10     4.30    14.00    69.56    26.00P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.22    44.27     8.40    75.92     3.85    35.33     8.51    24.06    82.92    41.33P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.56    34.06    -3.88    72.47     3.74    19.70     0.88     4.49    46.76    17.68P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.84    93.19     5.75    72.07     4.22     4.13     1.40     4.67    38.48     9.52P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.24    39.48     3.34    69.63     4.19    20.91     0.27     1.65    23.85     7.41P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.37    35.58     1.10    66.05     3.60    14.77     0.00     0.01     3.72     0.98P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.86    58.74     6.00    64.76     3.95    10.05     0.00     0.01     2.50     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.81    37.70    -4.12    60.57     4.05     0.35     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.97    32.60    -0.73    56.74     3.93     0.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.85    54.55    -5.65    55.23     3.83   -14.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.35    39.96     3.44    54.89     4.01    -1.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.67    42.86    -5.98    53.67     4.05   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.60    34.18     1.17    50.38     3.86    -9.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.79R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.62    30.23    -1.72    47.20     3.84   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.05R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.90    46.80    -1.59    48.27     4.13   -20.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.21R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.92    28.13    -1.00    45.39     3.80   -15.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.12R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.70    47.89    -1.33    40.96     3.89   -32.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.59R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.21     4.50   -17.52    27.28     3.62   -53.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.22  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.07    26.83   -14.39    22.15     3.76   -47.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.78  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.37    84.05    10.76    82.79     4.05    26.12    16.50    66.75    99.82    75.18P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.78    85.98     8.43    86.21     4.27    28.22    48.93    87.81    99.99    91.20P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.56    64.29     1.44    83.77     4.08    27.08    23.70    74.76    99.89    82.66P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.86    79.99     0.67    79.11     3.99    12.62     2.94    25.71    98.31    43.40P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.96    81.02    15.19    80.18     4.20    28.56     7.87    42.39    99.39    56.85P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.70    46.84     3.46    71.88     4.03    17.30     0.04     1.38    70.26    20.15P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.52    52.17     4.12    70.98     4.03    14.92     0.02     0.95    61.09    15.54P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.28    79.14     7.09    69.21     3.99     5.83     0.00     0.21    36.77     6.76P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.32    40.43    -4.18    67.55     4.00     5.83     0.00     0.04    24.86     6.25P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       3.89    66.92     9.96    61.07     3.94     1.00     0.00     0.00     1.43     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.62    38.75    -0.44    63.22     4.19     3.77     0.00     0.01     5.63     1.28P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.86    46.81     6.85    60.43     3.94     4.04     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.02    59.58     2.11    57.88     3.88    -8.07     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.72    38.73    -9.53    60.19     4.27    -9.63     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.02    50.71    -2.89    58.02     4.10    -9.13     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       0.87    54.66     1.22    55.50     3.91   -10.46     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.20    49.95     3.11    52.86     4.09   -12.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.61    35.12    -9.09    53.85     3.97   -17.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.77    20.06    -9.75    52.60     3.97   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.30    13.66   -11.03    53.19     4.02   -10.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.18     5.82   -11.11    52.75     4.30    -5.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.34    40.09     2.47    45.29     3.73   -19.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.35R    1.35  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.23    24.03    -6.06    41.28     3.79   -29.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.27R   12.27  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.80     1.35   -12.80    34.00     4.14   -28.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.34R   86.34  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.59    82.09    13.09    84.38     4.02    32.04    72.18    99.78    78.85P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.20    74.25     3.35    79.39     4.09    18.53    15.35    94.13    32.16P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.46    28.12    -1.60    77.28     3.76    28.01     6.86    90.78    35.76P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.88    33.57    -2.77    75.55     4.07    21.80     3.75    78.92    25.67P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.24    71.41     9.04    74.39     4.02    18.09     1.41    68.53    13.95P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.54    82.38     2.63    69.14     3.96    -0.57     0.05    15.51     2.39P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.57    83.68     4.83    65.60     3.43    -6.09     0.00     2.25     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.78    34.18     1.14    68.64     3.76    14.86     0.01    14.55     3.55P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.76    53.29     5.02    65.96     3.51     8.06     0.00     2.90     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.92    82.63     4.45    64.33     3.70    -7.59     0.00     1.29     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.31    51.23     1.58    70.13     4.53    11.53     0.38    26.53     5.91P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.22    55.51    -0.91    64.82     3.83    -0.18     0.00     1.93     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -1.94    42.14     2.62    64.78     3.81     7.74     0.00     2.27     0.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.02    37.65     3.47    62.15     3.79     6.74     0.00     0.40     0.06P    0.09R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.10    67.42     4.82    59.47     4.27    -8.72     0.00     0.21     0.02P    1.38R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.02    54.93     0.32    54.54     3.44   -13.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.59R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.21    51.54    -4.03    56.82     3.97   -14.26     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.23R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.28    28.28    -2.24    55.38     3.96    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.94R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.37    21.91    -8.38    54.52     3.77   -10.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.17R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.85    14.04    -6.30    55.28     3.96    -2.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.75R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.16    26.42   -12.49    49.81     3.39   -23.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.85R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.25    45.25     1.24    49.89     3.65   -17.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.85R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.02    11.76   -14.64    52.00     4.08   -15.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.15R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.76    22.32    -4.24    32.47     3.32   -41.06     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.93