Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 15 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.01    99.77     2.87   101.45     3.50    56.91   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.74    19.53    -5.35    80.20     3.50    54.20     0.00    98.73    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.49    67.23    15.15    68.30     4.01    34.33     0.00     1.21    77.72    92.99    99.53     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.11    39.14    -3.65    63.08     3.84    16.20     0.00     0.05    12.23    52.88    90.78     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.94    30.44     0.48    61.33     3.88    20.03     0.00     0.01     7.74    35.33    83.95     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.10    65.87     7.45    56.39     4.02     8.55     0.00     0.00     0.53     5.27    34.16     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.44    83.90     9.49    55.19     4.15     3.04     0.00     0.00     0.56     3.68    23.01     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.58    13.23    -7.92    56.91     4.04    12.36     0.00     0.00     0.94     7.33    42.64     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.31    24.46    -6.15    54.93     4.10     5.57     0.00     0.00     0.30     2.39    22.01     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.67    77.72     3.96    49.30     3.69    -9.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.14     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.34    62.60    -1.17    48.90     3.77    -9.70     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     1.24     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.63    47.12    -4.42    49.26     3.89    -9.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.44     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.61    64.33    -5.05    45.13     3.71   -19.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.99R    0.00  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.12    67.01    -1.05    43.68     3.81   -21.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.34R    0.05  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.65    36.74     4.74    37.69     3.63   -13.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.00R    1.80  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.07    21.23    -2.46    38.59     3.92   -16.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.47R    1.93  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.30    28.87    -2.87    36.84     3.76   -21.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.03R    4.05  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.57    27.81    -3.40    35.91     3.69   -24.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.18R    5.23  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.41    43.63     0.79    33.91     3.89   -30.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.55R   16.80  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.04    29.66    -1.43    29.51     3.64   -34.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.40R   70.14  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.66    79.85     7.62    86.84     3.97    31.26    50.90    93.92   100.00    95.89P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.54    64.51     3.07    86.26     4.01    33.08    47.10    91.52   100.00    94.50P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.55    71.98     2.57    76.96     4.02    14.92     1.24     7.72    95.33    29.41P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.91    29.48     9.61    75.79     4.01    36.17     0.70     5.73    93.53    38.02P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       5.97    74.16     4.90    73.41     4.03    11.60     0.06     1.02    79.27    17.29P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.90    62.28     1.44    68.79     4.06     5.63     0.00     0.05    35.88     6.95P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.24    67.90    -1.91    67.41     4.04    -1.82     0.00     0.01    21.93     3.74P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.34    72.14     6.45    66.79     4.04     4.75     0.00     0.01    19.25     3.27P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2       0.04    50.38    -2.76    66.84     4.08     2.81     0.00     0.01    20.00     4.18P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.39    52.01     4.30    65.58     4.06     7.34     0.00     0.00    14.45     2.76P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.18    51.03    -2.09    65.81     4.00     1.85     0.00     0.00    13.12     2.62P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.90    34.00    -6.23    62.69     4.02    -1.00     0.00     0.00     3.86     0.83P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.47    68.93     4.89    61.48     4.01    -5.55     0.00     0.00     1.42     0.21P    0.09R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.03    50.75     7.71    60.10     4.02     3.71     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.18P    0.16R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.87    42.36    -1.82    59.72     4.01    -3.91     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.13P    0.24R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.25    55.98    -1.38    58.22     3.97   -10.82     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    1.21R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.79    23.15    -3.25    53.48     3.96    -7.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   10.29R    0.58  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.44    44.71    -2.08    52.68     3.93   -15.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.98R    1.07  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.96    16.34    -9.64    53.35     4.01    -9.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   11.74R    0.50  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.54    35.21    -3.40    52.53     3.98   -13.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.70R    1.29  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.68    31.24    -5.39    52.46     3.99   -15.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.07R    1.40  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.83    30.51     0.13    49.43     3.89   -12.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.27R    4.60  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.93    38.17    -6.68    44.92     3.96   -32.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.99R   41.99  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.73    20.10    -6.06    43.93     3.90   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.27R   48.56  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.66    95.82     9.24    82.11     4.26    20.11    55.74    75.22    98.19    79.65P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.91    58.31     4.21    77.99     3.97    28.86    17.32    41.79    89.78    54.89P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.61    65.59    11.05    75.79     3.96    29.28     8.14    22.59    79.51    36.27P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.54    52.27    -0.63    74.38     3.96    20.08     3.48    11.85    65.39    26.34P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.17    75.79     4.29    74.94     3.92    17.09     4.32    13.77    69.37    25.92P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.29    43.95     8.32    75.94     3.82    35.37     8.41    24.06    82.91    41.00P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.66    33.72    -4.04    72.50     3.73    19.76     0.85     4.34    47.07    17.58P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.96    93.57     5.96    72.05     4.23     4.09     1.42     4.81    37.90     9.49P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.26    39.54     3.31    69.63     4.18    20.91     0.31     1.54    23.72     7.51P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.48    35.33     0.98    66.07     3.61    14.79     0.00     0.01     3.62     0.87P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.96    59.11     6.13    64.72     3.96    10.02     0.00     0.02     2.35     0.42P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.81    37.73    -4.10    60.55     4.03     0.35     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.75    33.70    -0.44    56.68     3.91     0.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.84    54.45    -5.66    55.23     3.79   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.36    40.07     3.43    54.93     4.03    -1.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.74    42.34    -6.09    53.66     4.03   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.43    35.01     1.42    50.36     3.85    -9.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.85R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.56    30.55    -1.61    47.20     3.83   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.06R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.76    47.49    -1.32    48.26     4.12   -20.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.82R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.91    28.37    -1.00    45.37     3.79   -15.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.73R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.61    48.24    -1.19    40.90     3.86   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.33R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.14     4.53   -17.34    27.26     3.62   -53.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.97  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.40    25.48   -14.93    22.22     3.77   -47.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.03  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.30    84.35    10.62    82.84     4.05    26.17    16.83    66.61    99.83    75.08P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.84    86.10     8.51    86.22     4.27    28.20    48.38    87.80    99.99    91.04P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.51    64.00     1.38    83.80     4.07    27.09    23.40    74.88    99.91    82.70P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.75    79.84     0.53    79.14     3.97    12.68     2.88    25.51    98.40    43.45P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.93    81.20    15.18    80.24     4.24    28.61     8.41    42.68    99.36    57.13P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.92    45.90     3.16    71.91     4.03    17.35     0.05     1.39    70.12    20.28P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.46    51.73     4.06    71.02     4.00    14.96     0.04     0.91    61.74    15.64P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.36    79.43     7.19    69.21     3.96     5.82     0.01     0.17    36.91     6.50P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.29    40.48    -4.17    67.51     4.01     5.77     0.00     0.05    24.63     6.29P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.10    67.73    10.28    61.04     3.96     0.92     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.58    39.22    -0.34    63.15     4.17     3.66     0.00     0.00     5.33     1.19P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.77    47.41     6.99    60.36     3.94     3.97     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.16    60.39     2.28    57.86     3.89    -8.10     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.76    38.58    -9.62    60.16     4.28    -9.67     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.04    50.15    -2.94    58.07     4.12    -9.09     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.12    55.68     1.55    55.53     3.90   -10.41     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.26    49.51     3.14    52.87     4.12   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.50    35.41    -8.98    53.78     3.99   -17.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.86    19.65    -9.88    52.60     3.96   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.53    13.08   -11.38    53.22     4.04   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.19     5.65   -11.08    52.72     4.30    -5.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.47    39.44     2.30    45.32     3.75   -19.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.47R    1.47  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.05    24.46    -5.82    41.29     3.80   -29.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.21R   12.21  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.92     1.32   -12.95    33.98     4.16   -28.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.28R   86.28  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.78    83.01    13.36    84.32     4.02    31.98    72.06    99.75    78.71P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.29    74.59     3.48    79.39     4.07    18.52    15.57    94.24    32.44P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.24    28.88    -1.25    77.21     3.77    27.92     6.80    90.29    35.30P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.71    34.50    -2.52    75.55     4.07    21.79     3.77    78.81    25.69P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.37    72.05     9.23    74.40     4.02    18.07     1.38    68.69    14.23P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.50    82.37     2.54    69.16     3.93    -0.57     0.07    15.28     2.30P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.69    84.15     4.95    65.60     3.41    -6.10     0.00     2.15     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.84    34.39     1.09    68.67     3.77    14.93     0.01    14.79     3.47P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.58    52.78     4.77    65.95     3.50     8.01     0.00     2.82     0.55P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.75    81.82     4.15    64.34     3.72    -7.55     0.00     1.28     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.39    51.76     1.66    70.18     4.52    11.58     0.34    26.95     6.09P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.26    55.89    -0.84    64.80     3.82    -0.22     0.00     1.87     0.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -1.95    42.23     2.66    64.79     3.83     7.72     0.00     2.43     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -2.95    37.99     3.53    62.13     3.79     6.71     0.00     0.40     0.07P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.01    66.79     4.61    59.49     4.30    -8.65     0.00     0.25     0.03P    1.53R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.14    55.77     0.55    54.49     3.46   -13.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.00R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.16    51.31    -4.10    56.85     3.94   -14.25     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.09R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.32    28.30    -2.33    55.35     3.94    -5.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.99R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.32    22.19    -8.32    54.53     3.74   -10.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.16R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.02    13.86    -6.58    55.32     3.99    -2.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.78R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.35    25.45   -12.74    49.84     3.40   -23.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.64R    0.02  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.43    44.67     1.08    49.95     3.67   -17.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.64R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.07    11.54   -14.72    52.01     4.07   -15.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.09R    0.03  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.79    21.93    -4.25    32.46     3.31   -41.05     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.92